ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think you mean cutter. We haven't seen a clipper in quite a bit. Winter 2010 was full of those if I remember right. We are looking at something come Christmas day but location is still up in the air. Euro and some other guidance hints at a smaller system for late 12/24 or early 12/25...a clipper-esque low. The more substantial system afterward around 12/27 is the modeled cutter. The Christmas system is small, so who knows if it will stay on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I wish we would discuss the 24/25th storm here and post 26th in the other thread, I'm getting confused.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This is funny... haha ... Let's embellish it so that it says what it really means: REGARDING PREFS FOR DAYS 3-5 SAT-MON... HPC CONTINUITY HAS THUS FAR DOWNPLAYED THE SFC WAVE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT EXIST OVER THE OH VLY/GRTLKS REGION BY DAY 5 MON BECAUSE OUR SECRET IN HOUSE MISER MODEL HATES ANYONES SENSE OF HOLIDAY GLEE. THIS FAVORS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEANS UNTIL THERE IS FURTHER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT. IN FACT ONE THING THAT IS CLEAR OVER THE LAST MONTHS WORTH OF RUNS IS THAT THE ECMWF WILL SUCCEED IN RUINING WINTER FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS. FARTHER WWD A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THOSE SOLNS LEANS AWAY FROM THE 00Z GFS THAT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL TROF ALOFT BY DAY 4 SUN AND 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN THAT BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH LEADING HGT FALLS ALREADY ON DAY 3. FOR DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED... TELECONNECTION PREFS OVER THE CONUS/ERN PAC LATE IN THE PERIOD FAVOR EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SFC EVOLUTION IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW UP TO 30 PCT WEIGHTING. RAUSCH eh, I don't really care either way - in fact, if we don't get a flake of snow again this year, I'd be more fascinating and interesting to me in seeing that happen; I get the funny feeling I am alone in that regard - understood. But, I merely opine out of spirit for commiseration, in that I can sense a lot of troubled contributors around here as of late. You gotta find other hobbies to involve with, bide time, until such time as the vagaries of the wind come back around to favor you. That said, I would really not put very much stock in this Euro run for that D8-10 thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Fwiw - here was the 00z ensemble mean vs the operational Euro. Notice the D9 sfc low on the op is up near the southern tip of JB, and the mean is just SE of NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 FWIW, the pattern has changed a lot...a pattern can change quite a bit without us going into January 2011 KU heaven. Those types of patterns are rare to begin with. The pattern isn't done changing either. We've transitioned from a dry, warm pattern across a lot of the eastern half of the U.S the first 10-14 days of Dec to a stormy pattern albeit still mild in the means, esp where we are in the northeast. Unfortunately its not as cold as we'd like, but that should continue to change in our favor the further we go along. Don't expect severe cold either. But a step down to more seasonal cold is likely over the next 7-10 days...regardless of that the 12/27 storm does. I do think that one could have a very icy look in the interior, but we are a ways out. I wouldn't rule out a snow to ice scenario either. As long as the pattern continues to go stormy here in the next few weeks, we will cash in...esp for areas further north. At any rate, this talk should really be in the pattern thread and not this one which is focusing on stuff for 12/25 and earlier. We have like 75 threads to discuss what's 10 flakes of snow before ice and then rain. The pattern has definitely changed. It went from warm and dry, to mild and mostly wet. We're in a stormy pattern, there's just no cold air around to support snow south of 42n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We have like 75 threads to discuss what's 10 flakes of snow before ice and then rain. The pattern has definitely changed. It went from warm and dry, to mild and mostly wet. We're in a stormy pattern, there's just no cold air around to support snow south of 42n. IMO that's what I foresee for the rest of this winter, a lack of cold air but plenty of storms. Last year had plenty of cold air in Alaska/Western Canada but hardly any of it came south, this year so far seems much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 IMO that's what I foresee for the rest of this winter, a lack of cold air but plenty of storms. Last year had plenty of cold air in Alaska/Western Canada but hardly any of it came south, this year so far seems much the same. Reasoning? Science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That said, I would really not put very much stock in this Euro run for that D8-10 thing... Rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 IMO that's what I foresee for the rest of this winter, a lack of cold air but plenty of storms. Last year had plenty of cold air in Alaska/Western Canada but hardly any of it came south, this year so far seems much the same. Last year the cold was bottled up in AK with a vortex over them....Canada was completely torched. This year we have a significant chunk of Canada below average for temps thus far....which bodes well down the road. We've struggled to get that air into the CONUS via a combo of a neturalish to at times positive EPO and a -PNA with it...that combo will tend to keep it bottled in Canada. But the pattern is definitely not the same as last year. We don't thave a death vortex over AK killing us this time around. There is some reason to be optimistic going forward, but I certainly don't blame people if they think its going to be like last year since they aren't getting any snow again. I only tell people to remember November if they think this year has been the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Persistence? He said IMO that's what I foresee for the rest of this winter, a lack of cold air but plenty of storms. Last year had plenty of cold air in Alaska/Western Canada but hardly any of it came south, this year so far seems much the same. Persistence of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Too many threads go to the toity. It may snow around 12/25. Concentrate on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 jan better produce or else, or kev will be institutionalized, I just fear his well being like much of us folks do, if the xmas miracle AND 27'th doesn't break right. We all want a big big winter. hell, most of us would settle for an average winter at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Too many threads go to the toity. It may snow around 12/25. Concentrate on that. I tried...some people didn't like that idea. They prefered to talk about how it won't snow between now and January. That idea could turn out correct, but I'm not sure why its difficult to post it in the pattern thread. We have two main threads...that and this one. If people want to banter, there is a banter thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think you mean cutter. We haven't seen a clipper in quite a bit. Winter 2010 was full of those if I remember right. We are looking at something come Christmas day but location is still up in the air. Not really a clipper or a cutter. The s/w appears to develop over the intermountain West and traverses the US in basically a west to east fashion. And the weak surface low never truly cuts... rather it kind of eases into the Lakes before sliding eastsoutheastward. Semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 euro ggem look great, going to be awesome having snow around xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think many of us will be giddy if we can get a freaking half inch or more xmas eve. We will post 40 pages of weenie joy in the event of such happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think many of us will be giddy if we can get a freaking half inch or more xmas eve. We will post 40 pages of weenie joy in the event of such happening. the models have been trending the right way that's for sure. Let's hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think many of us will be giddy if we can get a freaking half inch or more xmas eve. We will post 40 pages of weenie joy in the event of such happening. Absolutely! The pattern is clearly breaking in our favor heading towards the NY, some xmas snow would be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Have to give credit where credit is due, if this pans out............congrats KURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The disturbance is a clipper worthy system. Semantics, it cuts through the Great Lakes and Oh Valley and then into the Northeastern US strengthening as it hits the coastline. 12z GFS is most intense with the system, EURO shows light snows, GFS shows moderate snows, but I think both are underestimating the system's intensity as the PV splits amidst a strong -NAO west based blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay to Davis Straits. THis ridge splits the pv underneath it and then we get an arctic jet imposed disturbance clipping through the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. Arctic jet with arctic air behind the disturbance equals cold snows for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro ensembles have a weak low SE of the BM at 144h...which would be the Christmas Eve/Christmas morning event. It looks like it would be a weak overrunning/isentropic lift type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro ensembles have a weak low SE of the BM at 144h...which would be the Christmas Eve/Christmas morning event. It looks like it would be a weak overrunning/isentropic lift type event. Will, BL issues for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Will, BL issues for the coast? I wouldn't worry about that right now. Its a weak system 132-144 hours out. If it tracks like the GFS, then it would be rain on the south coast. A Euro track would probably be snow, though the BL isn't exactly frigid...prob a wet snow on the coast. But pointless to get specific when the event might not even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 The Xmas Eve storm sets the table for the ice/ snowstorm on 26-27th @BigJoeBastardi: UKMET more to my liking ... Festivus miracle mini system leads damming arctic air in front of 2cnd storm http://t.co/W156fAHM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I wouldn't worry about that right now. Its a weak system 132-144 hours out. If it tracks like the GFS, then it would be rain on the south coast. A Euro track would probably be snow, though the BL isn't exactly frigid...prob a wet snow on the coast. But pointless to get specific when the event might not even happen. Thats true, stupid question just stoked to potentially see some snow in this setup. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The S/W on the euro certainly would argue for something a little more robust if the models can hold onto this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 A solid 18z run would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It seems like the majority of sneaky events overproduce, at least in the type of wave being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 SAT AND SUN... LOW PRES BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND OCCLUDES AND WEAKENS IN NEAR PROXIMITY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING OVER WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM...SO A TRANSITION TOWARD WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW PRES MOVEMENT THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THE BEST ACCUMULATION OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Taunton has a 30% chance of snow here on Christmas Eve, that would be perfect timing. This storm and potential track seems similar to 1998 when I was living in NYC and we had 2.5" of snow on Christmas Eve from a low pressure system moving out of the Mid-West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.