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Sandy speculation thread


snowstormcanuck

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There's been a noticeable slowing trend in recent runs, and the 00z NAM continues that. We'll have to see if it's real or not...I have read that models have tended to underestimate the forward speed on landfalling storms in that part of the country but not sure if it would apply in this case. Anyhow, looks like the 00z NAM has mixing into the 850-875 mb range here on Tuesday afternoon but the wind fields decrease a bit by then as the system fills. If the wind fields aloft are underdone by even something like 10 kt then it could make all the difference between typical strong winds and something more impressive so needs to be watched.

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I would imagine they're referring to the 12z run, but TWC shows the Euro has Sandy at 975 mb at landfall, while the 0z GFS has the landfall pressure at under 940 mb. That's horrible this close to landfall. One of these models will horribly bust on pressure. This could be very telling on models.

The last several runs have been sub-955mb, so it's not the ECMWF.

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The last several runs have been sub-955mb, so it's not the ECMWF.

I know they said the Euro, so I think it's their mistake, hopefully no one else caught on b/c we wouldn't want the public to rely on misinformation. Kim Cunningham even mentioned how the scenario was much different in terms of strength on the model. I know the 0z Euro showed a landfall of around 945 mb pressure, so this is cleared up, thanks.

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It will be worse than 20-30 gusting to 50 here I can guarantee that.

What you thinking winds wise in the Detroit-Toledo corridor? I personally thought 30-40 with 65+ mph gusts.

Also on a sidenote to everyone in general I wonder what impact this will have on my job. No way will UPS be able to get packages from anywhere on the East Coast or ship it there for days so I wonder how much our workload will fall

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What you thinking winds wise in the Detroit-Toledo corridor? I personally thought 30-40 with 65+ mph gusts.

Also on a sidenote to everyone in general I wonder what impact this will have on my job. No way will UPS be able to get packages from anywhere on the East Coast or ship it there for days so I wonder how much our workload will fall

Add 5 to the first 2 and minus 5 from the last one. smile.png East of Toledo or North of Detroit could be more especially near the lakes.

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I'm not quite sure I've seen a wind gust forecast map quite this impressive for NE OH land:

post-525-0-69737100-1351409144_thumb.png

That's unreal. What's more impressive is the lack of hype here. Cleveland.com has not one article on the storm hitting Ohio ... a quick glance at all the local TV news channels also show websites void of any storm stories.

Rain has begun here and should continue nonstop for the next few days...

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It seems the media is a little gun shy these days with respect to the mess of last winters predictions. I am almost tempted to rent a chipper today for the mess of all the Ash trees which will fall with the winds comming, expecially when you factor the wind direction.

Other notes will be the waves, soil errorsion and possible flooding (wind tide) for those near and close to the Erie shore line.... For us on the Norther side of the lake low water might be the story. Might have to get the kids out there to do some exproring in the mud. Never know what you might find.

Time to batten down the hatches for everyone. Better to be prepared than caught with you pants down!!

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Very impressive. New RGEM has it at 945mb at landfall tomorrow night north of Atlantic City. The onshore flow north of the center right into NYC is probably a near worst case scenario for them.

I_nw_r1_EST_2012102812_040.png

And it initialized the pressure too high. Models that have been closer on initialization have this down into the 930s at landfall so it will be very interesting to watch.

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12z euro in and models have converged on taking the low inland to south central PA after landfall ....somewhere between 965 and 975 when it gets to that location. Looks like there will be the opportunity for a fairly narrow stripe of accumulating slush extending from around mansfield thru columbus and down thru WV. Basically the western fringe of heavier precip. Best time frame would probably be very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Interesting if nothing else. The big story, however will be the sustained high winds for many hours.

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12z euro in and models have converged on taking the low inland to south central PA after landfall ....somewhere between 965 and 975 when it gets to that location. Looks like there will be the opportunity for a fairly narrow stripe of accumulating slush extending from around mansfield thru columbus and down thru WV. Basically the western fringe of heavier precip. Best time frame would probably be very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Interesting if nothing else. The big story, however will be the sustained high winds for many hours.

Yep, the high winds for such a long period of time is my concern. Could be a ton of power outages. Will schools close this far west?

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12z euro in and models have converged on taking the low inland to south central PA after landfall ....somewhere between 965 and 975 when it gets to that location. Looks like there will be the opportunity for a fairly narrow stripe of accumulating slush extending from around mansfield thru columbus and down thru WV. Basically the western fringe of heavier precip. Best time frame would probably be very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Interesting if nothing else. The big story, however will be the sustained high winds for many hours.

The 09z SREF mean take on it FWIW. WV mountains get clobbered.

SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f054.gif

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