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Sandy speculation thread


snowstormcanuck

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Not looking good here. This is like a derecho hitting from the lake but lasting for hours instead of minutes.

FXUS61 KCLE 272002

AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

402 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY

STATIONARY AND BE ABSORBED AS HURRICANE SANDY BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL

AND DEVELOPS INTO AN INTENSE STORM AS IT MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA

ON TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THIS

TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR OR NORTHWEST OHIO

WILL LIKELY MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS FARTHER EAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY

BEGIN SPREADING WEST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE USED MAV TEMPERATURES

WITH SLIGHT CHANCGES. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THE INTENSE REMAINS OF SANDY WILL MOVE INLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA ON

TUESDAY AND SPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA

ESPECIALLY FROM CLE TO ERI. WITH THE LAKE NEAR 12-14 C EXPECT A

WELL MIXED LAYER TO EXTEND TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND ALLOW VERY

STRONG WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER GUSTS

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE

EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD REACH 60 TO 70 MPH NEAR THE LAKE

SHORE.

RAIN WILL RESUME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND

GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND

ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN BANDS AND

GENERALLY UPSLOPE CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL

INCREASE RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA

COUNTY EAST THROUGH GEAUGA AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. MODELS HAVE

BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL PRECIPITATION SHOWING 3 TO 6 INCHES

OF RAIN WHICH APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. SOME FLOODING IS EXPECTED

WITH THE SOIL ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS.

Wow, that's gonna be cool to experience, but chances of losing power are quite high I'd imagine. Hope all you guys shoot some video of this over the next few days.

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This is pretty crazy. Anyone remember what waves were like during GHD and some other big wind events?

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

400 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH TO 30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO GALES TO 40 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...5 TO 8 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT MONDAY AND TO 20 TO 25 FT TUESDAY MORNING.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...12 FT...BUILDING TO 18 FT MONDAY AND TO 33 FT TUESDAY MORNING.

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DTX mentioning snow accumulations on grassy surfaces.

Monday

Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain. Highs 41 to 45. North winds 10 to 20 mph...increasing to 20 to 30 mph...with gusts to 35 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night

Windy. Cloudy with light snow likely and a chance of light rain. Accumulations up to a half inch. Lows 34 to 38. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Tuesday

Breezy. Cloudy with light rain likely. Highs 41 to 45. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows 35 to 39. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday

Cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs 44 to 48. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows 36 to 40. Chance of rain 30 percent.

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Zones already 30-40mph for monday night out here in the thumb, Waves on huron are going to be pretty epic. The water level right now is about 2 feet lower than last year, gonna be a good thing. The funneling of wind down saginaw bay could produce some huge impacts near bay city/saginaw. All the makings of a once in a lifetime event, but still so many questions about how big of an impact this far west.

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Yeah he should add "trees falling" and "roof missing" as tags smile.png

Zone area forecast for Cleveland / Cuyahoga County:

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely...mainly after midnight. Lows around 40. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Showers. Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday Night: Showers. Breezy with lows in the upper 30s. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Showers. Very windy with highs in the upper 40s. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Showers. Strong winds with lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Showers. Very windy with highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely. Near steady temperature in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday Night: Rain likely. Lows around 40. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 40s.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s.

Friday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 50s.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s.

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ILN finally showing some interest.

excerpt from AFD:

BUT BACK TO THE BIG WEATHER STORY...AND THIS FORECAST PICKS UP

TUESDAY MORNING WHEN MOST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT. SUB-970MB CYCLONE

WILL ALREADY BE FILLING/SLOWING DOWN AT 12Z TUESDAY AS IT MOVES

ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER...BUT AT 5 SIGMA BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...THE

SURFACE PRESSURES /AND THUS WIND FIELDS/ WILL CERTAINLY BE

EXCEEDINGLY RARE THUS WE MUST BE OPEN TO UNIQUE AND RARE

IMPACTS...AND FOR OUR AREA THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR

VERY STRONG WINDS AND RARE ACCUMULATING OCTOBER SNOW.

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That wind map will be wrong

I think those might be peak sustained winds. If that's the case, it could be pretty close. I could see 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph into western Pennsylvania, which would fall below the 30 mph threshold. And this would agree with the official NWS forecast. I do think there will be area along the Great Lakes, however, that will see sustained winds of 30 to 50 mph, with occasional gusts to 65+ mph.

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I think those might be peak sustained winds. If that's the case, it could be pretty close. I could see 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph into western Pennsylvania, which would fall below the 30 mph threshold. And this would agree with the official NWS forecast. I do think there will be area along the Great Lakes, however, that will see sustained winds of 30 to 50 mph, with occasional gusts to 65+ mph.

It will be worse than 20-30 gusting to 50 here I can guarantee that.

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The potential flash flooding/street flooding threat can't be ignored here either. There are going to be quite a few clogged storm drains from all the leaves that have just come down, with water having no where to go.

NAM simulated radar has rain beginning late tomorrow morning and continuing straight through the entire run which is incredible. We've had over 12 inches of rain since September 1st, so the ground is quite saturated, which will exacerbate the falling tree threat.

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This is pretty crazy. Anyone remember what waves were like during GHD and some other big wind events?

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...5 TO 8 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT MONDAY AND TO 20 TO 25 FT TUESDAY MORNING.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...12 FT...BUILDING TO 18 FT MONDAY AND TO 33 FT TUESDAY MORNING.

There have been numerous events over the past several years to feature wave heights up to around 25ft...not so sure about 30ft+ though.

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