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Sandy speculation thread


snowstormcanuck

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We had a severe thunderstorm roll in from the lake here 2 years ago with 70 mph winds lasting a minute or two. That storm was devastating as many homes were severely damaged from trees falling. If we have several hours of 50 mph winds with the occasional gust to 70 mph, it will be devastating.

I work in a skyscraper right along lake Erie so it will also be interesting to watch the wave action and hear the structure rattle.

I'm also curious if I-90 will have waves crashing over it. Parts of I-90 in Cleveland are right at the lake maybe 4 or 5 feet above lake level.

I'm fully expecting to be without power for some time.

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We had a severe thunderstorm roll in from the lake here 2 years ago with 70 mph winds lasting a minute or two. That storm was devastating as many homes were severely damaged from trees falling. If we have several hours of 50 mph winds with the occasional gust to 70 mph, it will be devastating.

I work in a skyscraper right along lake Erie so it will also be interesting to watch the wave action and hear the structure rattle.

I'm also curious if I-90 will have waves crashing over it. Parts of I-90 in Cleveland are right at the lake maybe 4 or 5 feet above lake level.

I'm fully expecting to be without power for some time.

Speaking of the waves, CLE's current forecast has 17 foot waves right into the west side of Cleveland Tuesday morning:

post-525-0-92202500-1351354205_thumb.png

It wouldn't surprise me if CLE ends up putting out some kind of a coastal flood headline. The NAM/GFS both support gusts over 70MPH over the lake.

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A far less devestating run. Good to see. None of the foreign models were nearly as intense as NCEP, which gives some hope it won't be that bad. NCEP was just devestating.

Remember it's not just the wind, but the persistent rains as well. All that water will be funneled into those valley's in the Appalachians!

Last summer we had 3 storms with winds between 60-90mph. It only took a couple minutes to bring down whole trees on houses are wipe out the power for blocks! Some areas in town were without power for a week! - and that was only one storm less than 10 miles wide! The ground wasn't even saturated at the time - unlike it will be out East.

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I'll take the NAM.... if only

usaasnowipersfc084o.gif

Of course you would say that. While those two points you bring up are obviously exaggerated, it's still a dangerous system for the entire east coast.

The 1st sentence pissed me off for obvious past posts u have made to me an other posters. But in all honesty the mainstream media is chewing this up like mad. U almost hope it doesn't disappoint. I'll move on from this...back to the storm mechanics.

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Didn't think I'd ever see a tropical storm in Ohio, but here's the latest text forecast from weather.com for Tuesday here:

Tropical storm conditions possible. Mainly cloudy with rain, windy. Highs in the mid 40s and lows in the low 40s.

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Pressure is substantially lower than what models were indicating...of course that is not a total surprise but makes you wonder if some of those insane low pressure forecasts may end up panning out.

Did you see my earlier post? What type of track implications do think this will have?

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Did you see my earlier post? What type of track implications do think this will have?

Great question...I have read various mets' thoughts and the general take is that it could cause Sandy to resist phasing a bit longer, which would suggest a track farther north. But who really knows for sure.

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Great question...I have read various mets' thoughts and the general take is that it could cause Sandy to resist phasing a bit longer, which would suggest a track farther north. But who really knows for sure.

Thanks for the reply. As buckeye mentioned earlier, a deeper system may be more inclined to hook left, along with the fact that there is a strong block. But I also understand the argument of a longer time to phase. Eh, I guess we just watch and wait.

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12z Euro was a bit north. One of the benchmarks to watch is how close this gets to 70W before turning NW. If it doesn't make it, then the farther south solutions (say S NJ southward) start to become more likely. If it does get to 70W, the farther north solutions may be the way to go.

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Thanks for the reply. As buckeye mentioned earlier, a deeper system may be more inclined to hook left, along with the fact that there is a strong block. But I also understand the argument of a longer time to phase. Eh, I guess we just watch and wait.

Read in another thread the pressure was actually rising a bit.

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URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

311 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY.

* WINDS AND WAVES: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY WITH GALES LIKELY BY MIDDAY AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT A PERIOD OF GALES IS LIKELY.

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12z NAM increasing the potential for snows across Eastern Indiana and Ohio. 12z RPM similar to the NAM. The models are definitely initializing Sandy's pressure to high. We are definitely in uncharted waters here with a system like this as far as forecasting pressure. I feel there is a pretty good chance that we will see some of the crazy low pressures at landfall verify.

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Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for Ontario bordering northern Lower MI and the north shores of Lake Huron/Georgian Bay areas for a possible 4-6"+ of snow.

A LARGE AND POWERFUL FALL STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT

SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS ALSO THREATENING TO SPREAD SNOW INTO PARTS OF

NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 CM OR MORE ARE QUITE

POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO

RESULT IN VERY LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS WHERE THE

TEMPERATURE REMAINS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF

THE STORM ITSELF AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGIONS ON MONDAY. THEY

WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TEMPERATURE, AS AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE

STAYS JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN

THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN-WET SNOW MIX.

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NCEP disco

...HURRICANE SANDY...

BASED ON THE NAM/ECMWF BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSES... THE MODELS

HAVE INITIALIZED SANDY ABOUT 20 NM E OF THE OBSERVED 12Z POSN OF

28.8N 76.8W. THEIR CNTRL PRESSURES ARE ABOUT 10 MB HIGHER THAN

OBSERVED. THE GFS BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS COMPARES BETTER TO

OBSERVED POSN... THOUGH THE GFS CNTRL PRES IS 10-15 MB HIGHER THAN

OBSERVED.

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need to see some video of that...holy sh+t

I'll be heading down to the lakefront to check it out if they do indeed get that big!

On 10.19.11 the waves on Lake Michigan were definitely better than 10 feet! I thought that was a nasty wind...

They need to get these models initialized in the right place! 20 NM can mean a big difference to communities.

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Not looking good here. This is like a derecho hitting from the lake but lasting for hours instead of minutes.

FXUS61 KCLE 272002

AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

402 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY

STATIONARY AND BE ABSORBED AS HURRICANE SANDY BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL

AND DEVELOPS INTO AN INTENSE STORM AS IT MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA

ON TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THIS

TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR OR NORTHWEST OHIO

WILL LIKELY MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS FARTHER EAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY

BEGIN SPREADING WEST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE USED MAV TEMPERATURES

WITH SLIGHT CHANCGES. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THE INTENSE REMAINS OF SANDY WILL MOVE INLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA ON

TUESDAY AND SPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA

ESPECIALLY FROM CLE TO ERI. WITH THE LAKE NEAR 12-14 C EXPECT A

WELL MIXED LAYER TO EXTEND TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND ALLOW VERY

STRONG WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER GUSTS

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE

EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD REACH 60 TO 70 MPH NEAR THE LAKE

SHORE.

RAIN WILL RESUME SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND

GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND

ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN BANDS AND

GENERALLY UPSLOPE CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL

INCREASE RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA

COUNTY EAST THROUGH GEAUGA AND INLAND NORTHWEST PA. MODELS HAVE

BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL PRECIPITATION SHOWING 3 TO 6 INCHES

OF RAIN WHICH APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. SOME FLOODING IS EXPECTED

WITH THE SOIL ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS.

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