Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm back and better than ever. Anyone recall my sig 2012 meet 1938? Guess what . Me FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Love Alan disco on the Euro. Massive stuff @RaleighWx: My latest discussion on Sandy and potential future impacts. http://t.co/ZXW5pgHP #sandy #weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Any pics for the block or GEFS spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GGEM is harmlessly off shore - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 does their lower resolution in a complex situation like this need to be considered here or what?...id think so...im all for a strong noreaster here, but i just cant come around to this full out tropical phasing disaster at our latitude..its just too ridiculous..im rooting for it big time of course from the bottom of my weenie heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A day or 2 ago thehook was into the Delmarva. There's a north trend every 12 hours with where it hooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 does their lower resolution in a complex situation like this need to be considered here or what?...id think so...im all for a strong noreaster here, but i just cant come around to this full out tropical phasing disaster at our latitude..its just too ridiculous..im rooting for it big time of course from the bottom of my weenie heart It's not totally unheard of but it's exceptionally rare. So yeah it's possible but I wouldn't expect it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 does their lower resolution in a complex situation like this need to be considered here or what?...id think so...im all for a strong noreaster here, but i just cant come around to this full out tropical phasing disaster at our latitude..its just too ridiculous..im rooting for it big time of course from the bottom of my weenie heart I know..that's what gives me pause. Although as we get closer and more models agree to something more of an impact..it might be time to perhaps consider something....just perhaps not the doomsday scenario printed yesterday. If the EC op and ensembles hold tight, it probably would increase the risk of at least something more substantial in areas like the Cape. There's just so much that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Now watch the euro be east...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I know..that's what gives me pause. Although as we get closer and more models agree to something more of an impact..it might be time to perhaps consider something....just perhaps not the doomsday scenario printed yesterday. If the EC op and ensembles hold tight, it probably would increase the risk of at least something more substantial in areas like the Cape. There's just so much that can happen. why can't something huge happen? Euro and ens both had cane winds far far inland. It has happened before and will happen again. No reason to think now is not the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 does their lower resolution in a complex situation like this need to be considered here or what?...id think so...im all for a strong noreaster here, but i just cant come around to this full out tropical phasing disaster at our latitude..its just too ridiculous..im rooting for it big time of course from the bottom of my weenie heart I am not a tropical expert, but I would argue, that yes, absolutely the resolution matters since the accurate modeling of Sandy is of utmost importance to the development of the potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 One of the significant s/w interactions that I'm watching right now is related to the evolution of the North Atlantic low. Here's the 00z Euro hr24 ... similar to the GFS On the Euro, this s/w shoots east, staying distinct from the vortex, while the GFS has this s/w quickly wrap into the overall low. As a result, the vortex is much less stable on the Euro than the GFS, and this one s/w in the end tugs the whole vortex further northeast (just following simple QG height fall eqn). The GFS on the other hand, has a much more symmetric vortex (the s/w is wrapped into the circulation), and the jet from Quebec across Nova Scotia is the primary driver ... able to dig the low further south. EURO GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 why can't something huge happen? Euro and ens both had cane winds far far inland. It has happened before and will happen again. No reason to think now is not the time I never said it couldn't happen. I very well know what could happen, given everything. But, these events that occur maybe once or twice in someone's lifetime happen to be rare for a reason. My point is that we need more time to figure it out. A lot of us said it very well could be at least some heavy rain and wind from indirect effects from the inv trough and/or developing low. I think it's reasonable not to weenie out over a d7+ prog that shows a once in a lifetime deal. There are a lot of moving parts here.Lets see that the EC and ensembles do. At the least, could be a good nor'easter for some..I think that's a decent starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Classic. GEFS west, GFS slightly west, GGEM east. Euro will be interesting as usual. My guess is it will stay west but it won't have 3 feet of snow in PA. Also: 219 users....jesus...SNE's all time record (that I've seen) is like 260 or something like that. We had over 300 in here during the Jan 12 storm a couple winters ago. We'll break that easily if this thing ends up being anything close to the Euro. We have a really long ways to go though...a lot longer than I think many people give it credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I never said it couldn't happen. I very well know what could happen, given everything. But, these events that occur maybe once or twice in someone's lifetime happen to be rare for a reason. My point is that we need more time to figure it out. A lot of us said it very well could be at least some heavy rain and wind from indirect effects from the inv trough and/or developing low. I think it's reasonable not to weenie out over a d7+ prog that shows a once in a lifetime deal. There are a lot of moving parts here.Lets see that the EC and ensembles do. At the least, could be a good nor'easter for some..I think that's a decent starting point. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yeah Sam, I noticed that too. It does try to escape on the GFS, but a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We had over 300 in here during the Jan 12 storm a couple winters ago. We'll break that easily if this thing ends up being anything close to the Euro. We have a really long ways to go though...a lot longer than I think many people give it credit for. True, I forgot about the 1/12/11 storm...but even October of last year we barely got over 200 at one time.. But yeah....220 for 6-7 days away from the event though is absolutely insane. But yeah, we could easily set a board record for users online IF the Euro came to fruition. Anyway...back to more important discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 True, I forgot about the 1/12/11 storm...but even October of last year we barely got over 200 at one time.. But yeah....220 for 6-7 days away from the event though is absolutely insane. But yeah, we could easily set a board record for users online IF the Euro came to fruition. Anyway...back to more important discussion. That's because it porked the most heavily populated areas. I know I had seen the writing on the wall at about 630 pm, and shut the comp. off to drive to a halloween party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yeah Sam, I noticed that too. It does try to escape on the GFS, but a little too late. It's worth mentioning, I think the strong -NAO block would favor something closer to the Euro. Anomalous westerlies to the south would tend to deform the vorticity. The 12z GFS did trend in this direction too from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And as a side note, this probably should be remembered as we enter winter. If a met or anyone for that matter talks about how difficult it may be for something to happen, he or she is not saying it's impossible. He or she is just describing exactly that....that a certain situation may be complicated. I wouldn't try to read and perform context clues trying to figure out what mets are saying. I feel like that happens a lot here. I'm sure that if you asked the met, they would tell you their feelings, but don't assume something that's not specifically said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Any pics for the block or GEFS spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Any mets out there, that is the mother of all blocks over southern Greenland. Like 400M above normal. Ya like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ya like that? Lets get that going 2 months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some of the GEFS actually develop a low along that inv trough. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Lets get that going 2 months from now. Can a block of that magnitude break down over night?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some of the GEFS actually develop a low along that inv trough. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Makes sense to me. I would expect to see a LP develop on the slowly advancing polar front around Chesapeake Bay/Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No matter what the models have today nothing will be resolved on the out come so no need to jump off the bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No matter what the models have today nothing will be resolved on the out come so no need to jump off the bridge Agree-many of the great ones featured periods where models lost the storm or had it OTS. Look no further than the Boxing Day 2010 storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Makes sense to me. I would expect to see a LP develop on the slowly advancing polar front around Chesapeake Bay/Delmarva. I think it might be a more likely scenario than a phase. If the trough goes negative, something will probably happen along the coast. It still could be the phase if the timing is right but with phasing timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think it might be a more likely scenario than a phase. If the trough goes negative, something will probably happen along the coast. It still could be the phase if the timing is right but with phasing timing is everything. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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