Cold Miser Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm there several times per week with my daughters travel soccer team It's a nice park. There's going to be a crap load of work coming up there soon. The big thing will be moving the site around to make things level. I do hope this thing turns out good and there are not construction issues. It's a simple building with simple functions, but like anything in construction the lowest bidder can f*ck things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 May have been mentioned, but a Gale Watch is up for all surrounding coastal waters across New England and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Happy birthday Ryan.. hard to believe he's 30. Getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Getting old. lol 30 Yeah ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Timing of the strongest LLJ has slowed some so I'm a bit more meh on convection/damaging wind. Still... a 75 knot LLJ gets your attention in mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Timing of the strongest LLJ has slowed some so I'm a bit more meh on convection/damaging wind. Still... a 75 knot LLJ gets your attention in mid September. when we looking at, tuesday evening or later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 when we looking at, tuesday evening or later? We could see some convection Tuesday midday or late morning along the warm front if we're able to develop some surface based instability. Models aren't terribly impressive but the 0-1km shear does increase markedly through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 this is the most unstable i've seen the nam so far... at least looking at kewr bufkit from this morning's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Crazy winds at 850mb, over 80kt in spots. The higher terrain of New England and W NY better watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Happy Birthday, Ryan! I as well like NJ areas on south for severe tomorrow...both with low topped supercell potential as well as strong winds with the line. Outside of strong gusts across the coast and higher elevations for SNE I think torrential rains/flash flooding is more of a concern. However, have to look more into the 12z runs and SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Happy Birthday, Ryan! I as well like NJ areas on south for severe tomorrow...both with low topped supercell potential as well as strong winds with the line. Outside of strong gusts across the coast and higher elevations for SNE I think torrential rains/flash flooding is more of a concern. However, have to look more into the 12z runs and SREFS. SPC SREF targets E PA and NJ. SCP hits 9 in spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Crazy winds at 850mb, over 80kt in spots. The higher terrain of New England and W NY better watch out! Yeah I'm getting blown off the mountain on Tuesday evening in that prog. Almost makes me think ops should take the Gondola cabins off the line on Tuesday evening. Such a PITA though. Champlain Valley will be real windy too with N-S funneling of winds between the Dacks and Greens, with a 80+kt jet overhead out of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah I'm getting blown off the mountain on Tuesday evening in that prog. Almost makes me think we should take the Gondola cabins off the line on Tuesday evening. Such a PITA though. Wish we had access to the station on top of whiteface, they should be ripping tomorrow afternoon/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wish we had access to the station on top of whiteface, they should be ripping tomorrow afternoon/night. Yeah they need more bandwith...at least NWS can see it. I've talked with BTV about getting them access to some of our stuff on Mansfield but I'd rather just make it public. It is a lot harder though depending on IT infrastructure. Mansfield station at 4000ft should be decent to watch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Now that image means significant damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Now that image means significant damage Means nothing if you can't mix them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The new day 2 talks about a possible upgrade to mod likely just to the SW of SNE...new day 2 also has 30% hatched for portions of the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Right around Orange/Monroe NY..That area seems like ground zero. East facing slopes of Berkshires will do well I think also up towards Brattleboro and the 'Dacks of NY west of Lake George Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Right around Orange/Monroe NY..That area seems like ground zero. Hello.......................................I eagarly sit here on a mountaintop over 1K waiting for the breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 East facing slopes of Berkshires will do well I think also up towards Brattleboro and the 'Dacks of NY west of Lake George Why down there would the winds be more on the east side and not western slopes like up here? Up here with strong SE flow, the damaging winds are always on the downslope side (western slope communities) where they often mix down the full extent of H85 wind. You'll rarely see BTV issue wind products for areas outside of the spine and west slopes where towns like Underhill, Jerhico, Richmond (west of Mansfield's ridge) routinely see 50-60 mph downslope winds in cold season ESE flow. Also the Rutland area on the west slope near Killington is known to get destroyed in SE flow situations. Maybe due to CAD and more stable surface air east of the crest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Mildly surprised that SPC is not going with a slight risk further north...basically cuts off at ALB. Guess the thinking is without much instability at all, the threat is not very significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Mildly surprised that SPC is not going with a slight risk further north...basically cuts off at ALB. Guess the thinking is without much instability at all, the threat is not very significant. Yeah I don't really see any severe potential near and north of ALB. Looks like an HFD points south and west kinda deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah I don't really see any severe potential near and north of ALB. Looks like an HFD points south and west kinda deal. I'm even kind of meh for here. We're going to at least need some instability throughout the column to really help support the transfer of stronger winds down towards the sfc. For the low topped supercell threat I see that being a factor off to our SW. Seems like it takes a while for that richer theta-e/higher dewpoint air to work into our area....in fact, it doesn't seem to happen until just hours before the line would arrive. Models are showing though some higher instability working into SW CT ahead of the line so I would think SW CT has the better shot at seeing some very strong winds with the threat rapidly decreasing east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 This actually really blows that this line will eventually outrun the better dynamics aloft. If we saw a more eastward track of the s/w we'd be in business...seeing a 80-90+ MLJ at 500mb with an ULJ streak of 125-140 knots this time of year is staggering. If we were closer to those jet streaks we'd potentially be looking at a high end moderate risk type event with a substantial wind damage episode. We wouldn't even need much instability...you see setups like this in the plains and such in late fall and early spring where instability is nada but they are getting damage left and right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 93L is pulling in a ton of moisture from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 LLJ is gonna be cranking up here in NNE. 12z NAM has 50kts down to ~930mb (2,200ft) from 3z-9z Wednesday. Obviously frictional effects will probably limit it, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Here you go Kevin. Whack away. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=high%20wind%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 LLJ actually strengthens over SNE. Pretty rare to have a High Wind Watch in September, but definitely the chance to mix down at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 as rev kev would say, carpet bombing of HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Sweet, look forward to the scuds and gusts out of the south tomorrow.......fun day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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