Mr Torchey Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Of note, that's an impressive satellite signature over the deep south. Pretty cool how that low will phase tomorrow. Hopefully we can cash in on its tropical origin and get some decent rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 What's going to happen is anyone that lives below 1000' or closer to sea-level will complain b/c they only see gusts to maybe 30...40 and call bust and say all their stupid crap they usually do. It's above 1000' and up where the real wind and concern for wind damage should and will be. How much winds we see at the lower elevations will all depend on mixing and whether or not we have any weak inversions just above the BL. What happens at 1000' exactly? Twilight zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 What happens at 1000' exactly? Twilight zone? Both the NAM/GFS have winds of 50 knots as low as 1000ft tomorrow...that's winds well in the 50 mph range (50 knots is about 58 mph). As you get just a little higher up both the GFS/NAM indicate as much as 60 knots...for the areas that are above 1000ft you're going to be seeing some pretty intense winds. It's just below that how much of these winds can mix down? always tough to really tell...steepening the llvl lapse rates and getting better mixing would certainly help but the worst of the winds will certainly be form 1000' on up with 1500'+ the biggest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Both the NAM/GFS have winds of 50 knots as low as 1000ft tomorrow...that's winds well in the 50 mph range (50 knots is about 58 mph). As you get just a little higher up both the GFS/NAM indicate as much as 60 knots...for the areas that are above 1000ft you're going to be seeing some pretty intense winds. It's just below that how much of these winds can mix down? always tough to really tell...steepening the llvl lapse rates and getting better mixing would certainly help but the worst of the winds will certainly be form 1000' on up with 1500'+ the biggest winds. i see a disconnect in max wind gusts between coastal areas with better low level profiles and higher elevations that just jut into the LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 it's known that the GFS is too aggressive with widespread light precip, so that could be influencing its forecasts of lower cape and more of an inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 i see a disconnect in max wind gusts between coastal areas with better low level profiles and higher elevations that just jut into the LLJ bufkit certainly does have some better looking low-level profiles for areas just along the coast...llvl lapse rates appear to be much more steep here and that will certainly help to mix some of those stronger winds down along the coast. Looking at southern CT you can see some inversions up around 3-4K or so but winds below that are quite strong. 12z NAM bufkit has ~50 mph at times for southern CT. Interested in the 18z bufkit b/c the run overall looked a bit more impressive for winds tomorrow for both coastal and higher elevations. With any convection tomorrow we could certainly see some higher end wind gusts occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Both the NAM/GFS have winds of 50 knots as low as 1000ft tomorrow...that's winds well in the 50 mph range (50 knots is about 58 mph). As you get just a little higher up both the GFS/NAM indicate as much as 60 knots...for the areas that are above 1000ft you're going to be seeing some pretty intense winds. It's just below that how much of these winds can mix down? always tough to really tell...steepening the llvl lapse rates and getting better mixing would certainly help but the worst of the winds will certainly be form 1000' on up with 1500'+ the biggest winds. Agree that strongest winds will be above 1,000-1,500ft. But, I mean both the gfs and nam have 50 kts (theoretically) down to ~960mb (~1,200ft)..but with rain and obvious frictional effects due to the earth's surface, that 50kts can probably reduced signifcantly for sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 They let Blizz into the forecast office at BTV... going to rock and roll at the mountain tomorrow. Tuesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 56. Very windy, with a south wind 29 to 39 mph increasing to 39 to 49 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 44. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Agree that strongest winds will be above 1,000-1,500ft. But, I mean both the gfs and nam have 50 kts (theoretically) down to ~960mb (~1,200ft)..but with rain and obvious frictional effects due to the earth's surface, that 50kts can probably reduced signifcantly for sustained winds. For the higher elevation areas or everyone in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Both the NAM/GFS have winds of 50 knots as low as 1000ft tomorrow...that's winds well in the 50 mph range (50 knots is about 58 mph). As you get just a little higher up both the GFS/NAM indicate as much as 60 knots...for the areas that are above 1000ft you're going to be seeing some pretty intense winds. It's just below that how much of these winds can mix down? always tough to really tell...steepening the llvl lapse rates and getting better mixing would certainly help but the worst of the winds will certainly be form 1000' on up with 1500'+ the biggest winds. Whooooooshhh. It was a joke haha. I'm going to guess my parents house verifies at least a 50+ mph gust or two with the very top of the hill maybe kissing 60. I'm thinking probably 35-40 does it for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 They let Blizz into the forecast office at BTV... going to rock and roll at the mountain tomorrow. Tuesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 56. Very windy, with a south wind 29 to 39 mph increasing to 39 to 49 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 44. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Very nice! What's the elevation for this forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 How cool is the sat loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Whooooooshhh. It was a joke haha. I'm going to guess my parents house verifies at least a 50+ mph gust or two with the very top of the hill maybe kissing 60. I'm thinking probably 35-40 does it for here. Yeah that sounds pretty reasonable. Here I would think we may be able to touch 40-45-ish....last Saturday BDL was gusting near 30 mph at times and we gusted higher with the line and with stronger winds this go around thinking 40-45 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 They let Blizz into the forecast office at BTV... going to rock and roll at the mountain tomorrow. Tuesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 56. Very windy, with a south wind 29 to 39 mph increasing to 39 to 49 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 44. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. That's totally reasonable lol I mean Mansfield (~4300ft) is at like 875mb...most guidance shows winds 65-75kts (75-86 sustained), which will again be reduced due to frictional effects, but I think thats not totally crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Very nice! What's the elevation for this forecast? 3K feet http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.54480396890956&lon=-72.80710031738283 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 For the higher elevation areas or everyone in general? Everyone in general, especially once day time heating is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How cool is the sat loop? more of a positive for those who are favoring high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 3K feet http://forecast.weat....80710031738283 Pretty cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Mountain recreation forecast is a little more toned down with max winds of 75mph Tuesday night. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH... INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS 60 TO 75 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 55 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. What's the over/under on Mount Washington wind gust with this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Everyone in general, especially once day time heating is lost. Ahhh. One thing to watch for too is, especially for the coast are the llvl lapse rates steepening somewhat...even though we'd have lost daytime heating this could act to continue mixing of the llvls and help with the transferring of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Mountain recreation forecast is a little more toned down with max winds of 75mph Tuesday night. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH... INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS 60 TO 75 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 55 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. What's the over/under on Mount Washington wind gust with this event? 100mph? everything is showing 800mb winds near 80kts sustained lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I also like how Kevin assumes that forecast was for HIM...I've said it 100x...i don't just talk about CT..I'm usually referring to the entire region unless i say so otherwise. He also failed to post my map I made showing what areas I was talking about for potential of those 70+ mph winds...his area is NOT included in my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How cool is the sat loop? Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Ahhh. One thing to watch for too is, especially for the coast are the llvl lapse rates steepening somewhat...even though we'd have lost daytime heating this could act to continue mixing of the llvls and help with the transferring of winds. Yeah, but I don't know how steep we'll be able to get them as the strongest winds come through between 3-9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Mountain recreation forecast is a little more toned down with max winds of 75mph Tuesday night. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH... INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS 60 TO 75 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 55 TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. What's the over/under on Mount Washington wind gust with this event? I'll set the max wind gust at 135 mph...with their elevation and the funneling effect I'll actually take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah, but I don't know how steep we'll be able to get them as the strongest winds come through between 3-9z. Bufkit did have them steepening a bit across coastal CT for a few hours early on in that time frame. This is about when we see a stronger push of moisture/theta-e advection. Outside of any convection though I would think coastal areas could gust perhaps upwards of 50-55 mph while elsewhere more of 35-45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 18z eased off the throttle a little along the coastal plain ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The 18z NAM bufkit does bring nearly 750 J/KG of Cape into southern CT around 5z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I also like how Kevin assumes that forecast was for HIM...I've said it 100x...i don't just talk about CT..I'm usually referring to the entire region unless i say so otherwise. He also failed to post my map I made showing what areas I was talking about for potential of those 70+ mph winds...his area is NOT included in my map. CT is all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 CT is all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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