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Tuesday/Wednesday Storm


CT Rain

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Bufkit did have them steepening a bit across coastal CT for a few hours early on in that time frame. This is about when we see a stronger push of moisture/theta-e advection.

Outside of any convection though I would think coastal areas could gust perhaps upwards of 50-55 mph while elsewhere more of 35-45 mph.

BDR has a pretty decent Theta e profile in terms of instability, especially right around 6z, which lines up nicely with 35kt sustained winds, which is possible right along the coast, but not likely.

I'd probably say BDR and HVN are sustained 20-30 with gusts to 55 for a while tomorrow night.

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100mph? everything is showing 800mb winds near 80kts sustained lol

Yeah I gotta imagine they easily gust over 100mph... they might even be sustained not too far from 100mph. I could see an ob thats like 87G115 if these model runs are correct on the wind.

I think I'll say they gust to 115mph up there at MWN.

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BDR has a pretty decent Theta e profile in terms of instability, especially right around 6z, which lines up nicely with 35kt sustained winds, which is possible right along the coast, but not likely.

I'd probably say BDR and HVN are sustained 20-30 with gusts to 55 for a while tomorrow night.

Agreed.

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Unfortunately BTV isn't as gung-ho on winds as ALY and BOX are due to lack of instability and convection this far north. I still think the downslope areas will get high winds as far as low elevations go...they always seem to mix easily as the strong winds go over 4,000ft terrain and then drop to 150-500ft elevations in the Champlain Valley. Its almost like sustained micro-bursts as the wind comes straight down onto those communities.

AS FOR THE

WINDS...STILL MONITORING CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND

ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS AND OVER HIGHER

TERRAIN...AS WELL AS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE CHANNELING.

QUESTION IS WHETHER STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (50-70 KNOTS AT 850 MB)

WILL MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...AND GIVEN THE PROJECTED LACK OF

INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT...HAVE OPTED FOR NO

HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

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Pete and MPM might be the winners in SNE tomorrow. Looks like the strongest winds go through there and skip Eastern areas. I say ORH hits 48

It's hard for some of those inland areas to cash in unless they're on an exposed ridge top.

I'm sort of meh for SNE outside of parts of CT.

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It's hard for some of those inland areas to cash in unless they're on an exposed ridge top.

I'm sort of meh for SNE outside of parts of CT.

Yeah...maybe Pete or Peru get breezy, but I'd bet against big winds for MPM. The SNE METAR winner will probably be in CT unless MQE pulls it out of the hat.
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