CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I expect Wiz do be nude on the HAM...tracking every rotted limb coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Bufkit did have them steepening a bit across coastal CT for a few hours early on in that time frame. This is about when we see a stronger push of moisture/theta-e advection. Outside of any convection though I would think coastal areas could gust perhaps upwards of 50-55 mph while elsewhere more of 35-45 mph. BDR has a pretty decent Theta e profile in terms of instability, especially right around 6z, which lines up nicely with 35kt sustained winds, which is possible right along the coast, but not likely. I'd probably say BDR and HVN are sustained 20-30 with gusts to 55 for a while tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 100mph? everything is showing 800mb winds near 80kts sustained lol Yeah I gotta imagine they easily gust over 100mph... they might even be sustained not too far from 100mph. I could see an ob thats like 87G115 if these model runs are correct on the wind. I think I'll say they gust to 115mph up there at MWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I expect Wiz do be nude on the HAM...tracking every rotted limb coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I expect Wiz do be nude on the HAM...tracking every rotted limb coming down. I'm working from 11-6 tomorrow so for anything that happens after that this is exactly what I will be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 BDR has a pretty decent Theta e profile in terms of instability, especially right around 6z, which lines up nicely with 35kt sustained winds, which is possible right along the coast, but not likely. I'd probably say BDR and HVN are sustained 20-30 with gusts to 55 for a while tomorrow night. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wind gust guesses please: BDL BDR HVN GON MQE BOS HYA JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 more of a positive for those who are favoring high winds Are you favoring high winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 That is a beautiful storm for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 That is a beautiful storm for September. Yeah pretty cool. 18z GFS is a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wind gust guesses please: BDL 44 BDR 56 HVN 49 GON 51 MQE BOS 44 HYA 51 JFK 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 BTV's rainfall forecast...not sure if they have a wind gust map up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wind gust guesses please: (all in MPH) BDL - 45 BDR - 50 HVN - 50 GON - 55 MQE - where? BOS - 40 HYA - 55 JFK - 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 MQE is Blue Hill. 10miles SW of KBOS in Milton MA. El 635' ASL. Probably will get the peak gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I think the peak wind gust in CT will probably be just NW of Salisbury on that ridgeline that includes Mt Frissel (2380'). Probably see 75 mph up there. Faces SE with a very steep climb and not much blocking for quite a distance to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Unfortunately BTV isn't as gung-ho on winds as ALY and BOX are due to lack of instability and convection this far north. I still think the downslope areas will get high winds as far as low elevations go...they always seem to mix easily as the strong winds go over 4,000ft terrain and then drop to 150-500ft elevations in the Champlain Valley. Its almost like sustained micro-bursts as the wind comes straight down onto those communities. AS FOR THE WINDS...STILL MONITORING CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE CHANNELING. QUESTION IS WHETHER STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (50-70 KNOTS AT 850 MB) WILL MIX DOWN TO SURFACE...AND GIVEN THE PROJECTED LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT...HAVE OPTED FOR NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 in mph BDL: 48 BDR: 55 HVN: 58 GON: 40 MQE: 62 BOS: 55 HYA: 50 JFK: 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Any guesses for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 in mph BDL: 38 BDR: 51 HVN: 46 GON: 45 MQE: 58 BOS: 47 HYA: 52 JFK: 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wind gust guesses please: BDL 37 BDR 52 HVN 48 GON 48 MQE 58 BOS 40 HYA 44 JFK 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 in mph BDL: 38 BDR: 51 HVN: 46 GON: 45 MQE: 58 BOS: 47 HYA: 52 JFK: 52 Wow ours are so close it's creepy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 in mph BDL: 48 BDR: 55 HVN: 58 GON: 40 MQE: 62 BOS: 55 HYA: 50 JFK: 60 $1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Ryan and SOS have decent numbers. I'll be surprised if I gust past 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Any guesses for ORH? Bump for hills gusts..MQE doesn't count as a hilltown How about ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wow ours are so close it's creepy! Just used my memory of similar events. Would not be surprised if they are less than I think. Be a good day to be on Stratton Mt. Should be wild on the Ocean, new moon tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Pete and MPM might be the winners in SNE tomorrow. Looks like the strongest winds go through there and skip Eastern areas. I say ORH hits 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Pete and MPM might be the winners in SNE tomorrow. Looks like the strongest winds go through there and skip Eastern areas. I say ORH hits 48 It's hard for some of those inland areas to cash in unless they're on an exposed ridge top. I'm sort of meh for SNE outside of parts of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 It's hard for some of those inland areas to cash in unless they're on an exposed ridge top. I'm sort of meh for SNE outside of parts of CT. Yeah unless they get a crazy squall, Pete and MPM probably won't see much more than breezy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 It's hard for some of those inland areas to cash in unless they're on an exposed ridge top. I'm sort of meh for SNE outside of parts of CT. Yeah...maybe Pete or Peru get breezy, but I'd bet against big winds for MPM. The SNE METAR winner will probably be in CT unless MQE pulls it out of the hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Yeah...maybe Pete or Peru get breezy, but I'd bet against big winds for MPM. The SNE METAR winner will probably be in CT unless MQE pulls it out of the hat. They usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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