CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Another autumn like fropa on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Could be a wind event for some. The setup is somewhat similar to last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Low topped squall line wind damage Possible Tor's Could be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Low topped squall line wind damage Possible Tor's Could be fun . Yeah could be wiped right off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I agree. I fully expect to see about 4 Ef2s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Slight risk Day 3. Is it fair to say that the usual suspects are warming up in the bullpen as we speak ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Slight risk Day 3. Is it fair to say that the usual suspects are warming up in the bullpen as we speak ? And most likely the same results as last time as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Most damaging event of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Most damaging event of year? No way... it's gotta be the landphoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Timing is the concern here. It could be similar to last Saturday, although more widespread, albeit further west of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Timing is the concern here. It could be similar to last Saturday, although more widespread, albeit further west of New England. Looks like boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 The NAM to me looks like we could see an isolated low topped supercell or two during the day on Tuesday followed by a Tuesday night deluge. A modest (and I mean modest) amount of surface based CAPE and very strong 0-1km shear with a LLJ up near 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The NAM to me looks like we could see an isolated low topped supercell or two during the day on Tuesday followed by a Tuesday night deluge. A modest (and I mean modest) amount of surface based CAPE and very strong 0-1km shear with a LLJ up near 50 knots. GFS has a surge coming north as well, Tuesday morning. Looks warm frontal-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 GFS has a surge coming north as well, Tuesday morning. Looks warm frontal-ish. NYC/LI special? I'll have to look more closely at BUFKIT but just the synoptics on the NAM indicate some severe potential on Tuesday ahead of the best forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My guess is the euro is still probably too aggressive with the 5 days of rain. I guess we'll see what the 12z run does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 My guess is the euro is still probably too aggressive with the 5 days of rain. I guess we'll see what the 12z run does. Ginx is swimming across the Cape Cod Canal with his spotlight in tow based on the Euro. Let's hope he didn't travel for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Ginx is swimming across the Cape Cod Canal with his spotlight in tow based on the Euro. Let's hope he didn't travel for nothing. LOL, just picturing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I wonder how 93L will meet up with the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Wake me up if there is any severe in New England Yawnage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Damage is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 the euro sped up fropa timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 GFS has a surge coming north as well, Tuesday morning. Looks warm frontal-ish. if there is a morning surge of moisture, it's money for the nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I was hoping for 3-6" on the backside. As the event gets closer it seems to be fizzlin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Models are pretty wild the more I look for Tuesday. - Potential severe weather with low topped convection around warm front Tuesday (isolated tornadoes?) - Flood potential - Synoptic damaging wind thread (GFS has potential for 45 knot gusts on south coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Models are pretty wild the more I look for Tuesday. - Potential severe weather with low topped convection around warm front Tuesday (isolated tornadoes?) - Flood potential - Synoptic damaging wind thread (GFS has potential for 45 knot gusts on south coast) KFS did well with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 KFS did well with this I'll take the under on your 2 EF-2s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I don't really see much severe with this..outside a renegade spin up possibly to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 I don't really see much severe with this..outside a renegade spin up possibly to our southwest. Yeah for most of us agreed. I think CT down through the mid atlantic could get interesting along the warm front if we can generate some instability. Conditional tornado threat SW of HFD IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 I don't really see much severe with this..outside a renegade spin up possibly to our southwest. In terms of anything widespread... yeah absolutely not. Low topped supercell potential with isolated tornadoes and damaging gusts? Much like the last event once we get into the overnight the best forcing lifts to our northwest and the dynamics begin to wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Yeah for most of us agreed. I think CT down through the mid atlantic could get interesting along the warm front if we can generate some instability. Conditional tornado threat SW of HFD IMO. I see that threat in CT and points SW as well. Conditional like you said. I guess I'm referring to the KFS derecho. Looks like more forced squall line with minimal instability. LLJ is strong though...maybe a few weenie gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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