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Tuesday/Wednesday Storm


CT Rain

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I'm there several times per week with my daughters travel soccer team

It's a nice park. There's going to be a crap load of work coming up there soon. The big thing will be moving the site around to make things level. I do hope this thing turns out good and there are not construction issues. It's a simple building with simple functions, but like anything in construction the lowest bidder can f*ck things up.

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when we looking at, tuesday evening or later?

We could see some convection Tuesday midday or late morning along the warm front if we're able to develop some surface based instability. Models aren't terribly impressive but the 0-1km shear does increase markedly through the day.

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Happy Birthday, Ryan!

I as well like NJ areas on south for severe tomorrow...both with low topped supercell potential as well as strong winds with the line.

Outside of strong gusts across the coast and higher elevations for SNE I think torrential rains/flash flooding is more of a concern. However, have to look more into the 12z runs and SREFS.

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Happy Birthday, Ryan!

I as well like NJ areas on south for severe tomorrow...both with low topped supercell potential as well as strong winds with the line.

Outside of strong gusts across the coast and higher elevations for SNE I think torrential rains/flash flooding is more of a concern. However, have to look more into the 12z runs and SREFS.

SPC SREF targets E PA and NJ. SCP hits 9 in spots!

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Crazy winds at 850mb, over 80kt in spots. The higher terrain of New England and W NY better watch out!

850kts.gif

Yeah I'm getting blown off the mountain on Tuesday evening in that prog. Almost makes me think ops should take the Gondola cabins off the line on Tuesday evening. Such a PITA though.

Champlain Valley will be real windy too with N-S funneling of winds between the Dacks and Greens, with a 80+kt jet overhead out of the south.

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Wish we had access to the station on top of whiteface, they should be ripping tomorrow afternoon/night.

Yeah they need more bandwith...at least NWS can see it. I've talked with BTV about getting them access to some of our stuff on Mansfield but I'd rather just make it public. It is a lot harder though depending on IT infrastructure.

Mansfield station at 4000ft should be decent to watch as well.

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East facing slopes of Berkshires will do well I think also up towards Brattleboro and the 'Dacks of NY west of Lake George

Why down there would the winds be more on the east side and not western slopes like up here?

Up here with strong SE flow, the damaging winds are always on the downslope side (western slope communities) where they often mix down the full extent of H85 wind. You'll rarely see BTV issue wind products for areas outside of the spine and west slopes where towns like Underhill, Jerhico, Richmond (west of Mansfield's ridge) routinely see 50-60 mph downslope winds in cold season ESE flow. Also the Rutland area on the west slope near Killington is known to get destroyed in SE flow situations. Maybe due to CAD and more stable surface air east of the crest?

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Mildly surprised that SPC is not going with a slight risk further north...basically cuts off at ALB. Guess the thinking is without much instability at all, the threat is not very significant.

Yeah I don't really see any severe potential near and north of ALB. Looks like an HFD points south and west kinda deal.

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Yeah I don't really see any severe potential near and north of ALB. Looks like an HFD points south and west kinda deal.

I'm even kind of meh for here. We're going to at least need some instability throughout the column to really help support the transfer of stronger winds down towards the sfc.

For the low topped supercell threat I see that being a factor off to our SW. Seems like it takes a while for that richer theta-e/higher dewpoint air to work into our area....in fact, it doesn't seem to happen until just hours before the line would arrive.

Models are showing though some higher instability working into SW CT ahead of the line so I would think SW CT has the better shot at seeing some very strong winds with the threat rapidly decreasing east of there.

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This actually really blows that this line will eventually outrun the better dynamics aloft. If we saw a more eastward track of the s/w we'd be in business...seeing a 80-90+ MLJ at 500mb with an ULJ streak of 125-140 knots this time of year is staggering. If we were closer to those jet streaks we'd potentially be looking at a high end moderate risk type event with a substantial wind damage episode. We wouldn't even need much instability...you see setups like this in the plains and such in late fall and early spring where instability is nada but they are getting damage left and right.

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