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iCyclone Chase: ISAAC

HurricaneJosh

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Good luck Josh. Can't wait to see video (make sure it's better than the last one ;) )

Ernesto video wasn't bad. My only concern, if GFS Cat 3 or Cat 4 in South Louisiana scenario is right, is where you can find fairly open country near the coast that won't flood. Louisiana 14, inland South/West of US 90, saw surge flooding in Rita. Beyond New Iberia on US 90, I think surge flooding could also be an issue. Dry side of the levee near Breaux Bridge on Interstate 10?

Hoping Florida scenario works out, for gasoline prices, and for better chase conditions, even if it means not having support from Strat747.

gfs_mslp_uv900gulf_tropical_25.png

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Scott747

Scott747

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That would be a very good idea.

Locals and law enforcement really don't like to see "outta-staters" messing around during a hurricane. It's also a very, very good idea to have a spotter if you decide to go down to the swampy areas in SLA.

Most would be surprised to watch how fast those things rise.

Hell who knows...

I might even take a red-eye to LA if this becomes something big.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/171774-icyclone-chase-gustav/

You will probably enjoy the Gustav chase thread. Explains the 'altercation' we had with the female cops in Franklin along with the entire chase. On our way from Beaumont we really thought there was a chance that we were intercepting a 3 for sure with an outside shot at a 4. Of course that didn't pan out but we ended up right in the eye in Morgan City getting a 959 measurement.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Thanks, everybody, for the well-wishes-- I so appreciate it! :wub: I wanted to respond to each person individually, but I am so pressed for time.

I have to be honest, I'm getting a bit concerned Re: a Louisiana scenario. I would describe it as my least-favorite place for a hurricane because 1) New Orleans is a vulnerable national treasure and I hate the idea of another hurricane hitting it and 2) the rest of the state is very, very difficult chase turf-- just low-lying swamps with tiny, vulnerable towns. I really just hope it stays away from Louisiana!

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

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Thanks, everybody, for the well-wishes-- I so appreciate it! :wub: I wanted to respond to each person individually, but I am so pressed for time.

I have to be honest, I'm getting a bit concerned Re: a Louisiana scenario. I would describe it as my least-favorite place for a hurricane because 1) New Orleans is a vulnerable national treasure and I hate the idea of another hurricane hitting it and 2) the rest of the state is very, very difficult chase turf-- just low-lying swamps with tiny, vulnerable towns. I really just hope it stays away from Louisiana!

I want to just say screw the first week of classes. It is storm time haha. However work is the only thing I can't get out of.. Loss haha

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

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I have the same feeling, these sort of opportunities are few and far between. I found this guide to hurricane chasing on stormtrack, pretty sobering. Going to have to think about this quite a bit before pulling the trigger, which I'll have to do by Monday if I do. http://www.stormtrac...rricane-Chasing

Josh makes it look easy ;)

Thanks for posting that link! Really a must read for any inexperienced weenies thinking about chasing. Also makes you appreciate what Josh does.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

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Thanks for posting that link! Really a must read for any inexperienced weenies thinking about chasing. Also makes you appreciate what Josh does.

I do think it's a good read, although Katrina was a worst case scenario. It gets a hell of a lot riskier if you really try to do what Josh does and move basically until landfall going for the eye. I am pretty amazed at how he (and his team) manage to move around to a good spot relatively safely. If you just pick a spot that you expect to be a reasonable landfall spot that's safe though it isn't so bad. I admit I've never ridden out the core of a cat. 4+ though (closest was barely in the western eyewall of one...I think the winds were barely cat. 2), I think I've done 5 2s and 3 3s (and a bunch of 1s). All before wife and kids...hopefully in the next few years as they get older I can catch a storm occasionally. Still, if you've never been in a hurricane before even 40 miles east of the center of a cat. 2 will be quite an experience.

I'm really looking forward to this chase, good luck Josh!

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WishingForWarmWeather

WishingForWarmWeather

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Hello, Josh :) Good luck with everything, and I am eagerly awaiting the updates of your journey. Been following your chases quietly for about a year now, and have read through your entire website. Thank you for everything you do.

I know there has been many offers, but I lived in New Orleans for 6 years -- my uncle lives there still, and many of my friends. If you end up in New Orleans, chalmette, slidel, franklin, morgan city and a few other places, I can offer you to check with my friends to see if they can accommodate or help in your journey in any way you may need.

Good luck, again!

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Connor McCrorey

Connor McCrorey

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Good luck Josh! I'm sure what you bring back from Isaac will be stellar as always.

Personally, I think you made a fantastic decision to go ahead and pull the trigger. The way it looks now, I'll be driving from Norman, OK, to Dallas, TX, on Monday evening, where I will pick up a friend who will be chasing Isaac with me. From there, we'll begin heading towards NOLA/Biloxi/Mobile/wherever Isaac decides to make landfall. Hopefully we'll run into each other out there :)

Oh, and Josh, in response to your reply to me in the "Jonesing for a Chase" thread, I could not agree more. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen 'chaser' videos that clearly and severely overestimated the wind speeds observed in a given storm. I'm not sure why people feel the need/desire to exaggerate wind speeds for attention, as I'd much rather use actual data to learn as much as possible from my adventures in storm chasing, but I'm sure a fair percentage of those are just enthusiasts who truly believe that they experienced stronger winds than they truly did. Wind speed estimations are difficult, which is why I gave a fairly wide range in mine from Irene (80-100 mph). While you don't have to believe me, I'm confident that our winds were at least 80 mph for quite some time during Irene, possibly gusting higher. The NWS graphic that I posted in the last thread was not what prompted that rough guess, it simply served as reinforcement for my initial estimations. I've been lucky enough to measure a 90-95 mph wind gust or three chasing, and Irene managed at times to gust to speeds that certainly seemed to be about the same even without a direct measurement. And FWIW, that map was based off of measured wind speeds, not estimations.

Either way, Isaac will be a different type of storm. I've been forecasting Isaac to be an intensifying high-end Category 2 hurricane at landfall in MS/AL for several days. However, at this point I will not hesitate a bit to raise that intensity forecast another category (high-end Category 3) at landfall, with the distinct possibility that Isaac will RI right on up to Category 4 strength. It's risky to make this call when Isaac has hardly even begun to reintensify after crossing Cuba, but I just cannot come up with any reason that we won't already have a hurricane on our hands by the time Isaac makes it to the keys, if not by the time the sun rises on you, Josh, over there in California.

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

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Good luck Josh! You'll be passing through my neck of the woods on the way down! :)

If I had the opportunity to chase (someone has to look good on TV! ;) ) I'd start near Mobile and go from there. I-10 is right there and allows easy access to run to LA if needed or the Florida panhandle.

Other than that, have fun and be safe! :)

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Cajun Thunder

Cajun Thunder

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I have the same feeling, these sort of opportunities are few and far between. I found this guide to hurricane chasing on stormtrack, pretty sobering. Going to have to think about this quite a bit before pulling the trigger, which I'll have to do by Monday if I do. http://www.stormtrac...rricane-Chasing

Josh makes it look easy ;)

For your reference, and others that may decide to come to the New Orleans area by road to chase Isaac...

If evacuations are ordered and contraflow is invoked, you WILL NOT be able to access the area from the north on Interstates 55 and 59. All traffic on those two interstates would be going northbound. West and East there will be sections of Interstate 10 and 12 that will be the same way, as well as the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway.

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Connor McCrorey

Connor McCrorey

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Boy, the spaghetti plots are really adamant about keeping Isaac west of the MS/AL state line as of this morning. I don't like that, but on the other hand, I don't believe the levees are at risk this time. While large, Isaac is no Katrina, and it's extremely unlikely that the surge will be anything like August 29 2005. Plus, they probably got them fixed up a little better this time.

"Isaac is no Katrina" is a phrase that I think should be avoided. It's true, but it induces complacency, something that needs to be avoided at all costs. Not to mention that while it's a bit unlikely, Isaac could conceivably end up being a storm of similar or greater magnitude for the region than Katrina. Isaac seems to be rebuilding quickly now, and I've already seen a few troubling quotes from government officials downplaying the situation to a very irresponsible degree.

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