CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Dad practice? Shift work FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I almost spit out my beer when I read hunchbacks post. You can tell when the school year needs to end when Clark Kent gets cranky. So what does 18z show for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 2) you embellish totally to the point you practically lie....it gets old. I think this is the main point right here... It's gotten to the point that very seldom do we actually get good unbiased model interpretation. It seems everyone sees the same model data and then interprets (embellishes in this case) what they see in order to fit their spin for the day. One person sees a model and says it's an epic 4-5 day heatwave, another person looks at the same thing and says 2 days tops, then another doesn't even look and just says it's chilly. Yeah it's a weather board and everyone has their own opinion, and we are all guilty of it at some point, but it's pretty close to just wishcasting all the time given certain preferences for weather. But it's very easy to figure out a posters' weather preferences when it's either interpreted as always hotter and more extreme than the model verbatim, or it's always colder/cloudy/wetter than model verbatim. It's the same in the winter when every single model run is interpreted more snowy or wintery than is likely the case. With that said I enjoy all the posters here as there's a good group. It'd just be nice to have some mix it up once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I almost spit out my beer when I read hunchbacks post. You can tell when the school year needs to end when Clark Kent gets cranky. So what does 18z show for temps? lol... sorry about that. I am sad the school year is ending. Good kids. The DC trip was draining. The GFS really slams the door after the heat though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 I think this is the main point right here... It's gotten to the point that very seldom do we actually get good unbiased model interpretation. It seems everyone sees the same model data and then interprets (embellishes in this case) what they see in order to fit their spin for the day. One person sees a model and says it's an epic 4-5 day heatwave, another person looks at the same thing and says 2 days tops, then another doesn't even look and just says it's chilly. Yeah it's a weather board and everyone has their own opinion, and we are all guilty of it at some point, but it's pretty close to just wishcasting all the time given certain preferences for weather. But it's very easy to figure out a posters' weather preferences when it's either interpreted as always hotter and more extreme than the model verbatim, or it's always colder/cloudy/wetter than model verbatim. It's the same in the winter when every single model run is interpreted more snowy or wintery than is likely the case. With that said I enjoy all the posters here as there's a good group. It'd just be nice to have some mix it up once in a while. Well let's raise a glass and toast for '12-'13. Region wide snow for all is when this place rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Well let's raise a glass and toast for '12-'13. Region wide snow for all is when this place rocks. Amen...a good winter with widespread snow from the south coast to the Canadian border. Then we can all spin cold and snow . See even in a heat wave thread the topic of snow comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 ENS are smoking hot, BDL 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 There seems to be alot of complaining for no reason in here. This is our forum..this is how it works. It's wx and people are going to argue and have different views and opinions. It's better than people who lurk and don't post. What's the use of that? Deal with it folks..like LC couldn't do.. Deal with it I resemble that remark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I work indoors, but no AC and lots of warm bodies. This has been some of the best end-of-school-year wx I can remember. I have worked in brutal, brutal conditions, wearing PPE that makes you sweat when it is 40F out... Dressing up like this when it is 95F really is not fun. That was going to be me today. We had confined entry and rescue (reactor entry) training but the instructor had to cancel at the last minute. Hopefully it gets rescheduled during a heatwave. I really wouldn't mind the challenge. Looks like the nws has 89 here on Wednesday. Gotta worry about any backdoor boundary. The last one near memorial day was impressive. Mid 70s clouds and fog here. Meanwhile, Amherst was in the low 90s with a tripple digit heat index. Made me miss the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I think this is the main point right here... It's gotten to the point that very seldom do we actually get good unbiased model interpretation. It seems everyone sees the same model data and then interprets (embellishes in this case) what they see in order to fit their spin for the day. One person sees a model and says it's an epic 4-5 day heatwave, another person looks at the same thing and says 2 days tops, then another doesn't even look and just says it's chilly. Yeah it's a weather board and everyone has their own opinion, and we are all guilty of it at some point, but it's pretty close to just wishcasting all the time given certain preferences for weather. But it's very easy to figure out a posters' weather preferences when it's either interpreted as always hotter and more extreme than the model verbatim, or it's always colder/cloudy/wetter than model verbatim. It's the same in the winter when every single model run is interpreted more snowy or wintery than is likely the case. With that said I enjoy all the posters here as there's a good group. It'd just be nice to have some mix it up once in a while. The good thing about model data is you can actually use raw numbers verbatim...doesn't mean they are right, but if someone says "a model says this" when it really doesn't...its very easy to debunk by just showing the raw numbers. But there is also room for interpretation...like in the winter, we see a SWFE with little to no blocking ahead of it, and it just jumped 100 miles north in 12 hours and barely scrapes BOS/ORH while litchfieldlibations gets 1" of qpf all snow....most seasoned weather forecasters would probably forecast more snow for the I-90 corrider than what the model shows and probably know its going to rain on the south coast eventually in that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 That was going to be me today. We had confined entry and rescue (reactor entry) training but the instructor had to cancel at the last minute. Hopefully it gets rescheduled during a heatwave. I really wouldn't mind the challenge. Looks like the nws has 89 here on Wednesday. Gotta worry about any backdoor boundary. The last one near memorial day was impressive. Mid 70s clouds and fog here. Meanwhile, Amherst was in the low 90s with a tripple digit heat index. Made me miss the valley. Fun stuff, gloves filled with your sweat, great stuff, miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 BOX likes the heat TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN CONUS. GFS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO BRING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS/INTO OUR AREA...POSSIBLY COMING IN TUE. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS BRIEF INTRUSION OF THIS WEAK FRONT AND QUICKLY LIFTS IT OUT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO EXPECT MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AT THIS POINT. LEANING TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TUESDAY...WARMING TO 18 TO 20C FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOW 90S IN THE INTERIOR. THURSDAY... MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. 12Z GFS PLACES OUR AREA IN THERMAL GRADIENT WITH MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW...ECMWF SOLUTION IS DRIER AND WARMER. LATEST GFS SOLUTION DIFFERS FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL TEND TOWARDS ECMWF BUT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW 90S IN THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN IF ECMWF SOLUTION PREVAILS. But only for a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 The Euro verbatim shows 2 days of 90+ in the usual spots for Wed/Thu...that's what it shows verbatim on the raw sfc data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Still think BD potential near BOIs there or at least maybe seabreeze. Yeah its possible BOS never hits 90F if that happens. The Euro actually didn't let BOS hit 90F...it was really only the CT Valley and maybe the Merrimack Valley. I actually thought the sfc temps would be a bit hotter based on the 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Night time lows in the mid 60's by mid-week. Hopefully there is a breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Yeah its possible BOS never hits 90F if that happens. The Euro actually didn't let BOS hit 90F...it was really only the CT Valley and maybe the Merrimack Valley. I actually thought the sfc temps would be a bit hotter based on the 850 temps. If I said that I would get a Ens though are hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Yeah its possible BOS never hits 90F if that happens. The Euro actually didn't let BOS hit 90F...it was really only the CT Valley and maybe the Merrimack Valley. I actually thought the sfc temps would be a bit hotter based on the 850 temps. It probably would be 90s if we could get wsw flow, but that flow from the nw opens up the door for BDF potential to cut it short a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 CoastalWx's thread title sums it up nicely. 2 maybe 3 days of heat and then a series of fast moving disturbances and possible exciting severe weather courtesy of the Davis Strait anomaly. Not bad ... question is whether that anomaly is right. Not sure it is, but not a lot of confidence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 CoastalWx's thread title sums it up nicely. 2 maybe 3 days of heat and then a series of fast moving disturbances and possible exciting severe weather courtesy of the Davis Strait anomaly. Probably there is some potential with the setup, however it is not the type of setup where 2 EF4s go over CTblizz's house in the same day. Mainly cause there's no such thing as a setup 7 days where the odds of a tornado are >50% in anyones backyard, let alone two. A major coldfront and H5 disturbance (for this time of year) will come through. Outflow from the gulf TC will stregnthen the Jetstreak at the base of the troff. The question is where will the surface cyclone develop? Too far north, or too far south, who knows at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 lol...the euro blows the front through Thu night now...Wed and Thu are damn hot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 00z MEX guidance for W/Th... CON 94/92 BDL 96/94 BOS 88/89 BTV 91/89 ASH 95/92 ORH 90/89 TAN 92/93 Not bad for 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 101 for BDL..possibly 102 100 for BOS 93 FOR MPM and WCH You gotta feel for those with no a/c..the smell of funk is in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Looks like a dry fropa Friday morning..Monster heat and no storms. That sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Looks like a dry fropa Friday morning..Monster heat and no storms. That sucks Man that front hanging on the south coast could promote a disaster next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Man that front hanging on the south coast could promote a disaster next weekend. The following week looks below normal with cold pool storms..Days near 80 and popcorn storms..This time of year fronts stalled don't do much other than pop storms..water temps are warm..so no NE flow worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 BOS could be close to if not the winner for a day in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 The following week looks below normal with cold pool storms..Days near 80 and popcorn storms..This time of year fronts stalled don't do much other than pop storms..water temps are warm..so no NE flow worries The source region for NE winds is still chilly relative to the air masses. Hopefully we stay on the dry side of that stalled boundary. Man the NAO just wants to stay negative. The hemispheric shift means bidness. Going to get beaten up on this but if you notice, first recurving typhoon in a very very long time. Something to keep an eye on going forward, bodes well for an Eastern trough. I would love to see lots of these in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Folks escaping the heat on the south coast beaches this week will have a couple of things to look forward to. New moon tides which mean plenty of beach at low tide but less at full, an offshore storm should send some nice swells up too. Rip currents might be an issue. Sounds like a sick day Wed to me!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 101 for BDL..possibly 102 100 for BOS 93 FOR MPM and WCH You gotta feel for those with no a/c..the smell of funk is in the air Longing for extreme heat/humidity, hiding behind the AC. Irony ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Longing for extreme heat/humidity, hiding behind the AC. Irony ftw. best post ever!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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