mappy Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I think you and Fozz are taking this the wrong way. By no means am I stating that I'm upset with our winters (I've lived in the area my entire life and know what to expect), just stating that they suck in most years and by suck I mean we get below average snowfall. Data supports that claim. There are far too many people in this area that expect 09-10/95-96/02-03 esque winters far too often. It just doesn't happen. Quite rare, actually. Um... that is exactly what you have been saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Um... that is exactly what you have been saying Stating that something sucks doesn't equate to being upset about it, which I never wrote anywhere in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Stating that something sucks doesn't equate to being upset about it, which I never wrote anywhere in this thread. okie dokie! carry on ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 You have to look on the bright side about this. Having lotsa sucky winters make the greats ones just that more special and enjoyable......eh, who am I kiddin....sucky winters suck a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Using the "average" sets your expectations too high because it's biased by great years like 09-10, 02-03 and 95-96. The median snowfall is a much better representation of what you should expect in a given year. If you use the median, the 3-5 years in the last 11 where BWI had snowfall in the mid-upper teens in inches is pretty much right down the pipe "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Using the "average" sets your expectations too high because it's biased by great years like 09-10, 02-03 and 95-96. The median snowfall is a much better representation of what you should expect in a given year. If you use the median, the 3-5 years in the last 11 where BWI had snowfall in the mid-upper teens in inches is pretty much right down the pipe "normal". I think what seems "off" in recent years is the # of events we get in a "normal" year. My memory may be off but I swear we averaged alot more events in the 70's and 80's. I lived in CO for most of the 90's so I don't know how those years stack up. It just seems like the number of events has trailed off and even some of the years we hit climo were just from one big hit and a nickle and dime here and there. 09-10 was just a perfect lineup of all factors that give us a good winter. It wasn't really a fluke. It will happen again. Just like this winter was a perfect lineup of factors to give us a total crap winter. It will happen again too. Could be a natural cycle or we could be in a modified climate regime. Winters are warmer overall so that may be our problem. We're on the climo fringe in the MA. When it's warmer than normal here it doesn't snow. The same can't be said to our north. I don't need big snows to enjoy a winter. MBY averages 22" I think. I'd take 2-4"'s all winter long to get there. Just doesn't seem to work like that anymore and I'm not really sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 SPS from LWX WFO: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1040 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012 DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502-VAZ025>031-036>040- 042-050>057-501-502-504-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506-080000- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH- FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON- RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-EASTERN HIGHLAND- HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT- EASTERN MINERAL-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE... LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON... MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG... KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...FRANKLIN 1040 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012 ...ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON. OPEN BURNING OF ANY TYPE IS CONSIDERED VERY HAZARDOUS THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACCIDENTAL ESCAPED DEBRIS BURNS ARE THE NUMBER ONE CAUSE OF WILDFIRES. $$ BL/KRW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 You have to look on the bright side about this. Having lotsa sucky winters make the greats ones just that more special and enjoyable......eh, who am I kiddin....sucky winters suck a big one. Stop compaining about our sucky winters, weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Stop compaining about our sucky winters, weenie! lol- i tried. I really did. It just seemed so anti-weenie and I need to stay true to my affliction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I'm sorry to disappoint anyone, but I just committed to having my roof replaced next month. This therefore means it'll be a dry, boring spring and summer. Because had I waited till next spring to do it, there'd be enough rain and wind to make me regret waiting. With you on this one. We are getting a deck put on and want dry conditions so that it can be done in a timely fashion and not like our neighbors last year which took over 2 weeks to finish because of so much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 The Mid-Atlantic is terrible for winters. We get our big year once or twice a decade, but after that it sucks. Anyone expecting a lot of snow needs to move to the mountain west, upslope regions of the apps or to northern New England. We can't even do cold right in the MA. We're the king of moderating cold air masses in the U.S. The all-or-nothing snowfall trend of the last 17 years may be due to climate change (though I have no proof) or it may just be a temporary blip. If you think this is representative of how winters around here have always been, you need to do some more research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Sorry for modding out of my subforum, but I don't need to see ceramic peeners in the morning Agreed, save those for the afternoon or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 So, Ian, I officially went from 150" to 1.8" in a year. You got your wish mi amigo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I don't know about others, but I call average the 60-80% or a winter that has as little 12" seasonal to 20" seasonal (in upper Montgomery Co.). Granted I haven't put the numbers in and crunched the actual data, but DC certainly is on a longer run of "Suckyness" for winters (below 12" seasonally). But that is enough about winter for a spring thread. I LOVED the weather today...but HATED that my departure from work went from my expected 3pm, to 4:30pm and that took away welding time (my way of enjoying the warmth outdoors now-a-days). New week I gear up for Cherry Blossom filming, but I'll save those details in the Cherry Blossoms thread. Wonder what the chances are to push the time change even further up so that it starts March 1 and ends November 30? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I don't know about others, but I call average the 60-80% or a winter that has as little 12" seasonal to 20" seasonal (in upper Montgomery Co.). Granted I haven't put the numbers in and crunched the actual data, but DC certainly is on a longer run of "Suckyness" for winters (below 12" seasonally). But that is enough about winter for a spring thread. I LOVED the weather today...but HATED that my departure from work went from my expected 3pm, to 4:30pm and that took away welding time (my way of enjoying the warmth outdoors now-a-days). New week I gear up for Cherry Blossom filming, but I'll save those details in the Cherry Blossoms thread. Wonder what the chances are to push the time change even further up so that it starts March 1 and ends November 30? ;-) Using 12" as the cutoff for suckiness in DC, 18/32 winters since the 80-81 season have sucked. Climo average at DCA is 14.5 and since 80-81, 10 winters have been above average....7 with at least 50% above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Sping has spung bitches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Sping has spung bitches True dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Using 12" as the cutoff for suckiness in DC, 18/32 winters since the 80-81 season have sucked. Climo average at DCA is 14.5 and since 80-81, 10 winters have been above average....7 with at least 50% above normal snowfall. Not not a bad threshold for DCA....maybe a tad high. Perhaps I should put it lower so that more like 70% of the season with snow are considered "good". Sping has spung bitches Ewwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 My weeds started growing in Feb. They are now mature weeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 My weeds started growing in Feb. They are now mature weeds. Bugs need to go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The chickweed is just about out in full force on the lawn I'm trying to fix up. I may have to spray a bit earlier than I anticipated. But I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 We need rain. This is just the start of my usual whining over the lack of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 We need rain. This is just the start of my usual whining over the lack of rain. The 2.4" from last week wasn't enough for you?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Wow...if next week forcast for multiple 70°f days in a row, bookend by 60s. DAMN! I'm gonna put the bike on the roof and start hitting the trails early (I really, really need to get in shape). I am not depressed long when I can go from winter to warm spring temps quickly! Wonder how our drought variables and forecasts are looking with all this warm stuff. Not that an exact correlation exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 We need rain. This is just the start of my usual whining over the lack of rain. Rainfall is about normal to this point, maybe even slightly above thanks to last week's rain. We're certainly not lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 A little ahead of schedule but not all that early considering the type of winter we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 Rainfall is about normal to this point, maybe even slightly above thanks to last week's rain. We're certainly not lacking. ... Year-to-date DCA: -1.32" (79% of normal) BWI: -1.15" (84% of normal) IAD: -1.40" (78% of normal) RIC: -1.17" (83% of normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 ... Year-to-date DCA: -1.32" (79% of normal) BWI: -1.15" (84% of normal) IAD: -1.40" (78% of normal) RIC: -1.17" (83% of normal) The Northeast can survive with 70% of normal precip for a year, thats still not going to turn the area into a desert. We're not LA. I'm not saying your saying we are. I have a hard time remembering any big droughts in CT or DC. Every time it dries out for a few months the rain comes back with a vengence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 The Northeast can survive with 70% of normal precip for a year, thats still not going to turn the area into a desert. We're not LA. I'm not saying your saying we are. I have a hard time remembering any big droughts in CT or DC. Every time it dries out for a few months the rain comes back with a vengence. Agreed... just wanted to make sure people knew the real numbers for our region. 80% isn't quite normal but it's close enough... certainly not entering above normal territory. We would need one or two moderate rain events to get into above normal levels for the YTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Another outside productive day. At this rate I'll have the roof cargo and accessories rack for the Jeep done in another two or three days worth of work. Flowers are also sprouting. Certainly is going to suck when that couple of weeks of cold/cool temps return on last time before the normal warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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