NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

[Ginx snewx]

Ok what the hell is up with OKX WRF, holy heck

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/wseta.shtml

[CT Rain]

What time should I get up for this? 4:30..will it be snowing yet?

Yeah I'd say that. I'm getting up at 230... Work at 315.

[ORH_wxman]

I dunno about that ; I said in the opener, let's not disregard this solution... We're inside 30 hours in a scenario that requires a finite mesh. The NAM more than just seems to do well with these thermal compression scenarios, and having a potent warm front park S of the area while a huge wind max roars over top is real real dicey. Rapid cyclogenesis scenarios are no unwarranted. The NAM just spins up a secondary at bombogen rates and clobbers the area while doing so.

I could see the NAM sort of having the right idea but I think that secondary would probably bomb too late for us. It was entertaining to see the solution though at 18z for tomorrow night.

For laughs, look at what it spits out here at 33 hours....TSSN with 0C at 850mb, lol...talk about isothermal snow bomb

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_KORH.txt

[Amped]

As everyones 496th favorite forcaster I will now awkwardly chime in,

NAM showing a foot of snow @ while +10C at 850mb makes it over NYC which is kind of finny Funny.

There maybe some warm layer problems especially south of Concord NH at H7 since winds are out of the SW and there are warm temps just to your south.

So a lot of sleet is my guess after the initial thump. Then over to drizzel and 40s.

[ski MRG]

Just tired of half my posts which there is nothing wrong with always getting deleted.

I'm hopeful we all see snow..but I feel like Scooter and raising the flags. Alot can go wrong

I think that there should be a member advisory panel set up to monitor the actions of moderators and be a tool for members to contest unfair sanctions. This model has worked well nationwide where citizen advisory panels have helped to lower instances of police brutality. Getting back to the weather, I could really see this going either way. I won't be surpised if this busts with only 1-2" here or if it thumps 8" in record time. Gun to head I'd say 5.7" by noon and then maybe a little icing on the cake Fri night with 1-2" additional.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Damn, that second thump would be good...ah well. Someone, maybe the fish, will be happy

[ineedsnow]

that is alot of precip!

Ok what the hell is up with OKX WRF, holy heck

http://www.erh.noaa....okx/wseta.shtml

[dendrite]

Ok what the hell is up with OKX WRF, holy heck

http://www.erh.noaa....okx/wseta.shtml

cm and not inches maybe?

[Ginx snewx]

cm and not inches maybe?

I am looking now

[HoarfrostHubb]

cm and not inches maybe?

Would be odd to have 0.25 cm increments...that is probably inches, but wow, that is a lot of dampness

[ineedsnow]

Its got to be inches

cm and not inches maybe?

[moneypitmike]

Ok what the hell is up with OKX WRF, holy heck

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/wseta.shtml

Doesn't have me asking about my qpf.....

[CoastalWx]

Sometimes these WRFs all have the same wet bias.

[dendrite]

Would be odd to have 0.25 cm increments...that is probably inches, but wow, that is a lot of dampness

Why would it be odd? I think cm is more likely than inches. At least for the model's sake I hope it is cm because otherwise they should just can it for neing horrible. lol

[dendrite]

Sometimes these WRFs all have the same wet bias.

40microbars rising up over my neighbor's 2-story colonial.

[ski MRG]

Doesn't have me asking about my qpf.....

That would be quite the thump.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Why would it be odd? I think cm is more likely than inches. At least for the model's sake I hope it is cm because otherwise they should just can it for neing horrible. lol

Well, in most data output, when you see something output in metric units, they don't go by quarter units.

For inches, yes.

Looking at the scale, maye it is cm, though, since the colors correspond to 0.1 units. Maybe just the way it is run they post contours to 0.25 cm intervals

[Ginx snewx]

Why would it be odd? I think cm is more likely than inches. At least for the model's sake I hope it is cm because otherwise they should just can it for neing horrible. lol

I would say CM but every other data set is English , but then again I would take a inch WE, cold thruout, funny every time I check this model it's pretty warm. Meh but...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Down to 29.5 imby. Liking the colder than modeled temps.

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if I will ever break the current record of 3.9" for an individual storm this season. As time goes by, it looks more and more likely that I won't.

[Ginx snewx]

I wonder if I will ever break the current record of 3.9" for an individual storm this season. As time goes by, it looks more and more likely that I won't.

You get that in 3 hours on today's day 6/7 Euro, just sayin Debbie.

[It's Always Sunny]

so there will be lil accumulations because of poor lift and or BL temps being borderline? kinda what most figured

one poster mentioned warm ground and this is a garbage argument in april or may if rates are high

hopefully this busts positive

i like what mark webster is saying and they have been mentioning this in the NYC forum....that storm E of maine is CRANKIN

Not a fan of snow, but wouldn't mind seeing at least one snowfall event that came close to the accumulation of the Oct Noreaster. If that vort max wasn't too far offshore at that the time the bulk of the precip passes through I'd be outside building a snowfort.

[CoastalWx]

You get that in 3 hours on today's day 6/7 Euro, just sayin Debbie.

I'm not holding my breath.

[NorEastermass128]

You get that in 3 hours on today's day 6/7 Euro, just sayin Debbie.

38 IMBY. Clear skies. Hoping to get to 32 by 3-4AM.

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is starting to like Pike south it seems.

[HoarfrostHubb]

HRRR is starting to like Pike south it seems.

To bad it is wall to wall 50s

[moneypitmike]

Down to 29.5 imby. Liking the colder than modeled temps.

Nice--still at 34.5/24 here.

Edit: before I sent this, my temp bumped up to 34.7. Ah--standard night radiating at the Pit.

HRRR is starting to like Pike south it seems.

I read your post and thought that it must have been made by cweat (j/k).

[OKpowdah]

Honestly, pretty low confidence forecast. Will be really interesting to see how this plays out

[CoastalWx]

To bad it is wall to wall 50s

Just looking at radar, it may be a little too light already, but just saying what it shows. It sort of tries to weaken that batch of precip as it moves ENE from NY state and western MA and CT. Kind of what we were talking about earlier.

[Amped]

HRRR shows a Bliz Wiz special with the first batch. Euro showed this too.