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NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I didn't even look at the BTV WRF, but that's what I was wondering. Maybe not weaken significantly, but perhaps max out there. But then again, the NAM and SREFs don't really agree with that and do favor areas a little more north.

Some of the globals did seem to be awfully south like euro and uk?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Pissed I missed the non weather posts but I am sure SkiVT6 ? is pleased.

Very quick temp DP drop today, can not get a real grasp on the dynamics here, the mesos which are designed for these exact scenarios are juiced yet I can totally see a Euro repeat of two Saturdays ago where it falls apart. This progressive pattern really stinks for this storm as our newly accepted into grad school hackey sack playing weenie map drawing Sam pointed out. Coulda been a contendah.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Rootin' for ya... last year SNE won every time while we were dry as a bone, this year the opposite, not that they're connected...

Funny how some years (this year in SNE!) you agonize over 1 vs 2 inches, others you ignore a half a foot (last year in SNE!).

last night we had what was supposed to be a relatively benign FROPA with some flurries after an evening in the 50s and we wound up with 6-8 inches of flurries in about 5 hours, after a temp drop of 15 degrees in about an hour. 64" on the season IMBY (seasonal average around 60). Wish I hadn't sold the John Deere blower before we left C MA.

Location?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Yeah they did. Pretty weird to have that difference, but I think the euro is too meager. Maybe it has the right idea? However, just seems too meager. But even the HRRR seems to like areas south of Rt 2.

Seems like we're honing in on where best potential for mesoscale lift sets up. Relatively narrow band of strong frontogenesis and warm advection as llj starts working. Still too early to say if it's the pike or if it's dxr.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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Yeah they did. Pretty weird to have that difference, but I think the euro is too meager. Maybe it has the right idea? However, just seems too meager. But even the HRRR seems to like areas south of Rt 2.

Like 5 miles south?

eh... 2" would make me smile

How does the wind to the south (ie south coast/Cape) look?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

:blahblah:

noyes says cooler dp's have advected in....and we have "cold potential" now

What happened to the warm ground and warm air mass that was the topic du jour 6 hours ago?

Earlier this afternoon was one of the few times we were run over by anti-weenies. Tends to happen after several consecutive severe weather or snow busts.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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What happened to the warm ground and warm air mass that was the topic du jour 6 hours ago?

Earlier this afternoon was one of the few times we were run over by anti-weenies. Tends to happen after several consecutive severe weather or snow busts.

Sun angle might be a big issue around 09z when its moving in.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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What happened to the warm ground and warm air mass that was the topic du jour 6 hours ago?

Earlier this afternoon was one of the few times we were run over by anti-weenies. Tends to happen after several consecutive severe weather or snow busts.

ryan ....lol

as of this afternoon no body was calling for anything of note in boston

what do you have for down town boston accums.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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I'm hopeful we all see snow..but I feel like Scooter and raising the flags. Alot can go wrong

mine as well get juiced up about this now....at least with some meso models showing your area gettin a couple...i mean in a couple months you will have NOTHIN to track/follow/etc

you have elevation and you have more precip gettin in your area before any heating of the day issues may slow accums like they may in E SNE CP .

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