NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

[mahk_webstah]

I wonder if the southerly trend of this 1st batch is being driven by the low bombing out over Nova Scotia. Develops just enough confluence to pinch this S.

that's what i was speculating a couple hours ago...looking at the radar you could see rotating returns just east of maine....that is what is driving it south just looking at the radar. also noticed moisture to the south feeding in so I think the nam is on it.

[N. OF PIKE]

I am going to hum..oops can not say that, gonna invite the RUC to dinner Messenger style? Kevin not posting for 3 months , that would suck but.... First time he ever under reports? 4.9 FTW

lets see that band is gonna smoke someone in W SNE later tonite..ennie meenie miiineee moe...

sorry but anyone got a good link for the HRRR model

[CoastalWx]

LOL Kevin may pull 3-4" after claiming 50 and wall to wall rain.

[CoastalWx]

Joe may have some glop squish his prized crocuses.

[ORH_wxman]

lets see that band is gonna smoke someone in W SNE later tonite..ennie meenie miiineee moe...

sorry but anyone got a good link for the HRRR model

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Looks like the HRRR isn't handling this very well though...it looks way too weak with the stuff in OH/PA.

[HoarfrostHubb]

LOL Kevin may pull 3-4" after claiming 50 and wall to wall rain.

I'm gonna bring my 1" down to Tolland so he gets 5" and we get 3 months of peace

[OKpowdah]

I wonder if the southerly trend of this 1st batch is being driven by the low bombing out over Nova Scotia. Develops just enough confluence to pinch this S.

This also enhances frontogenetical forcing. Should be a decent pounding for a couple of hours I would think

[Ginx snewx]

I am going to hum..oops can not say that, gonna invite the RUC to dinner Messenger style? Kevin not posting for 3 months , that would suck but.... First time he ever under reports? 4.9 FTW

Well, radar looks spot on, mesos look good, short term looks good, winter of 12 screws with my mind.

[mahk_webstah]

Mahk brought this up about 2 hours ago. Seems plausible.

you noticed my brilliant synoptic skills!

[snowNH]

Yup, knew that one was coming. Wouldn't surprise me if the band just dies out completely dies and no one in SNE gets snow. I can just see mother nature saying "Hey, how bout we pull a fast one on SNH and NE MA again this year by shifting the models south 150 miles in 1 day. Yea that would be fun to watch weenies squirm!" effin pricks.

You know what wouldn't surprise me? if that low in NY at 24 hours trended NW from here on out and that low forming off of NJ trended SE from here on out, leaving the freaking sahara desert in between for NE.

Final call : 0.75" Rain and an Eff you flake

At what point will SnowNH be banned?

When I see accumulating snowfall in 2011-2012, so never

Dude, you saw 2' in Oct....I'm the one who should be livid, but I find it awe inspiring.

Awesome. That was like 5 months ago. You saw 18" during 1/12/11.

[weatherMA]

HRRR loves HFD. Snowfall rates at 6am tomorrow:

[HIPPYVALLEY]

We'll have to watch how that edge of the precip shield in srn Michigan and Lake Erie behaves. Any northward component helps out those north of the CT/RI border.

Some pretty heavy stuff S. of Cleveland atm.

[N. OF PIKE]

watchin NE pa's obs tonite should be fun NW nj too i think .....this band could smoke Danbury after hitting 60 today.

looks like band will set up south of rte 2 now for sure...even ORH to BOS maybe too far North

[CoastalWx]

Not to spit out typical weenie statements, but the nrn edge of the precip is a little north of the HRRR placement. Any little shift north is pretty big, because I think the nrn edge of the snow shield will be sharp, or at least the distinction between mdt-hvy returns and light returns.

[OKpowdah]

At what point will SnowNH be banned?

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL, Kevin special.

Thank god I pulled a 2010 and checked out on this winter.

I'd have been banned by now.

[mahk_webstah]

This also enhances frontogenetical forcing. Should be a decent pounding for a couple of hours I would think

what impact does it have on the secondary? in situ blocking that forces is to slow down and say close to the coast?

lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

Joe may have some glop squish his prized crocuses.

My crocuses came out today as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

what impact does it have on the secondary? in situ blocking that forces is to slow down and say close to the coast?

lol

Make sure to donate that $20 tmw.

[CoastalWx]

Thank god I pulled a 2010 and checked out on this winter.

I'd have been banned by now.

You'll probably have just enough on the Celica spoiler.

[CoastalWx]

My crocuses came out today as well

Yours will be crushed too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yup, knew that one was coming. Wouldn't surprise me if the band just dies out completely dies and no one in SNE gets snow. I can just see mother nature saying "Hey, how bout we pull a fast one on SNH and NE MA again this year by shifting the models south 150 miles in 1 day. Yea that would be fun to watch weenies squirm!" effin pricks.

You know what wouldn't surprise me? if that low in NY at 24 hours trended NW from here on out and that low forming off of NJ trended SE from here on out, leaving the freaking sahara desert in between for NE.

Final call : 0.75" Rain and an Eff you flake

When I see accumulating snowfall in 2011-2012, so never

Dude, you saw 2' in Oct....I'm the one who should be livid, but I find it awe inspiring.

[PoconoSnow]

watchin NE pa's obs tonite should be fun NW nj too i think .....this band could smoke Danbury after hitting 60 today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You'll probably have just enough on the Celica spoiler.

Enough for what

[OKpowdah]

what impact does it have on the secondary? in situ blocking that forces is to slow down and say close to the coast?

lol

Unfortunately it's a "transient" block. If a true -NAO were in place, the storm bombing to our northeast would be anchored over Newfoundland, and BOOM: 1/12/2011

In this case, it does push the baroclinic zone southward, helping secondary develop further south, and with more cold air in place over the northern half of New England

[weatherMA]

watchin NE pa's obs tonite should be fun NW nj too i think .....this band could smoke Danbury after hitting 60 today.

looks like band will set up south of rte 2 now for sure...even ORH to BOS maybe too far North

Pulling an all-nighter for your 1-3"?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think (memory sucky attm) that Messenger mentioned something about thing being suppressed the other day...

Of course, that could have been 2010 for all I remember

[CoastalWx]

Enough for what

Measurable. I'd watch how far the nrn band gets. Still could drop 1-2 or so for you.

[Ginx snewx]

Unfortunately it's a "transient" block. If a true -NAO were in place, the storm bombing to our northeast would be anchored over Newfoundland, and BOOM: 1/12/2011

In this case, it does push the baroclinic zone southward, helping secondary develop further south, and with more cold air in place over the northern half of New England

You even sound like a grad student, what's the annual snow there?

[CoastalWx]

I think (memory sucky attm) that Messenger mentioned something about thing being suppressed the other day...

Of course, that could have been 2010 for all I remember

He thinks everything is se.