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NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Read their 10pm AFD - they'll likely pull that trigger.

I have to ask you. Do you seriously think that warning criteria will verify here from that second low? I don't know man.

Although...GFS further south with everything through 6 hours... hmmmm...Through 12 hours, much weaker with primary and low popping further south off of DEL/MD coast....

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

I have to ask you. Do you seriously think that warning criteria will verify here from that second low? I don't know man.

Although...GFS further south with everything through 6 hours... hmmmm...Through 12 hours, much weaker with primary and low popping further south off of DEL/MD coast....

Thanks for saying I'd get all rain while you got snow tomorrow, looks like your ever wrong calls came through for me this time!

Scott, are you really that excited for here? Looks like even the NAM only had a 2-3" deal or am I wrong?

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Read their 10pm AFD - they'll likely pull that trigger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

LOOKING AT 18Z AND LATEST 0Z GUIDANCE ATTESTS TO AN AREA OF

DEFINITIVE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING /AND STRONG VIGOROUS LIFT THRU

THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS

PIKE BEGINNING AROUND 4-5 AM AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE MORNING

COMMUTE INTO THE MID-MORNING HRS. CHALLENGES TO OVERCOME CONCERN

THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED COUPLED WITH SFC TEMPS AND

BOUNDARY LYR PROFILE UP TO H7. THE LATEST RUNS FROM THE HRRR AND

0Z NAM /INCLUDING THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NMM- AND ARW- CORE WRF

SOLNS/ HAVE PROGRESSIVELY SHOWN THAT ALTHO INITIALLY PRECIPITATION

MAY START OUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN...THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE PRECIP

SHOULD COOL THE LOWER ATMOS COLUMN DOWN TO ITS RESPECTIVE WET-BULB

TEMP /LIKELY AT OR BELOW FRZG/ RESULTING IN THE RAIN TO TRANSITION

OVER TO SNOW. ANTICIPATING MOST LOCALES WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND

THE FRZG MARK.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMES MORE DYNAMIC ACROSS THE ERN GRT

LKS RGN...MDL SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A PRONOUNCED WARMING

AROUND H8 WITH INCREASED S/SWLY FLOW AT THE LOW-MID LVLS WHICH

WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW TO TRANSITION TO SLEET. SPATIAL AND

TEMPORAL SPECIFICS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...BUT ONE THING IS

FOR CERTAIN AND THAT SIMPLY IS THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A MESSY

MORNING COMMUTE FOR LOCALES ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE WITH A

WINTRY MIX RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND REDUCED

VISIBILITIES. IMPORTANT TO NOTE IS THE LIKELY IMPACTS TO METRO

AREAS SUCH AS HARTFORD...PROVIDENCE...AND SOUTH BOSTON.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES...AND HAVE

ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS ADVISING OF

ISSUES ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AM WATCHING

CLOSELY THE LATEST 0Z MDL FCSTS FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE. WILL UPDATE

ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SNOW TOTALS...AM EXPECTING BANDING THRU THE S TIER OF NEW

ENGLAND AS STATED PREVIOUSLY ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH

THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...WE MAY NOT SEE A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF SNOW...AND A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET. LOOKING AT ACCUMS

AROUND 1-2 INCHES PRESENTLY. WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY WITH THE

LATEST FCST GUIDANCE. AS KNOWN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN ACCUM

BETWEEN SNOW AND SLEET AS SNOW HAS A FLUFF FACTOR. ELY ONSHORE

FLOW INCREASING WITH THE DEEPENING SYS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP

ALONG THE SHORELINES AS MAINLY RAIN /ALTHO AN INITIAL BURST OF

SNOW CANT BE RULED OUT FOR THE WRN CAPE/.

&&

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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SnowNH I got your PM; I cannot guarantee you a warning event out of this - I'm not even sure where in NH you are. The initial IB snows are S in SNE, and then if/when the 2ndary takes over later tomorrow it's a compact event with pesky meso bands forming S again. Then there's fluff factoring in that comparatively less liquid equiv water, in snow, could be better for you - in fact, the heavier IB band will be in N CT/RI and Mass along the Pike most likely, but the northern side of that will by fuzzier and probably extending to central VT/NH.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

SnowNH I got your PM; I cannot guarantee you a warning event out of this - I'm not even sure where in NH you are. The initial IB snows are S in SNE, and then if/when the 2ndary takes over later tomorrow it's a compact event with pesky meso bands forming S again. Then there's fluff factoring in that comparatively less liquid equiv water, in snow, could be better for you - in fact, the heavier IB band will be in N CT/RI and Mass along the Pike most likely, but the northern side of that will by fuzzier and probably extending to central VT/NH.

:lol:

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie: for SnowNH

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks for saying I'd get all rain while you got snow tomorrow, looks like your ever wrong calls came through for me this time!

Scott, are you really that excited for here? Looks like even the NAM only had a 2-3" deal or am I wrong?

Well you might in a favorite spot. Seems like NW CT might be ok in this one. You're at 1K?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Phil was spot on yesterday about the sneaking dry air getting in here behind today's rain shower event. That's a nice thermodynamically cold slab. That's your BL resistance -also - and helps to reset the inland low on the NJ Coast ... or wherever the triple point nexus is...

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Lol at that one weenie run that gives me like 10 inches....it probably did what the 18z NAM tried to do with that secondary.

I already locked that run in. 2-4" followed by another 4-8" incoming! lol. Seriously though, gfs looks good for 3....warmer then 18z though...changes over HFD/TOL quickly unlike the nam

Time to crash. Lots of skiing ahead. See the pre-dawn crew in a few hours. Go Go Go !!!

I'll be upat 5a for this storm despite the fact I'll probably be awake until 1.

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

So what's this looking like for the Boston area? I've been in class for the past few hours and it seems like things have changed.

It's basically RUC and radar time -just hope the radar echos don't exit too far south because we need the heavy rates given marginal surface conditions and need to wet bulb. I still think around 1 " is most likely and a little more if we get lucky and end up in the good band.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This is a pretty impressive model squabble between the GFS and NAM.... The NAM is far more devoted and intense with 2ndary than the GFS... In fact, the GFS never really eliminates the primary - it tries to restrengthen it over N ME, which is a considerably different evolution than the NAM.

My feeling is the NAM will have a better handle on the BL conditioning, which favors a 2ndary. Interesting...

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