NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

[NorEastermass128]

Yeah, I've loved the evolution of this as modeled. Time to see if their correct or not. I think I've cooled as much as I can until the precip moves in. 40/22 presently. I expect a 34-36F pasting of snow.

Tim Kelly rule. Add temp and dewpoint and divide by 2.

40+22=62/2 --- 31F

Enjoy your plastering.

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL...HRRR gets further south every run...now has the CT coast jackpotting with 4-5" and barely a flake N of the pike from part 1

It's next run will bump that N probably...

[Typhoon Tip]

Tim Kelly rule. Add temp and dewpoint and divide by 2.

40+22=62/2 --- 31F

Enjoy your plastering.

That's the weather world rule

anyway, that's also in an ideal mixing scenario. I think here conduction from overrunning complicates that up to 33 or 32. In general its a nice rule of thumb most people use.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, I've loved the evolution of this as modeled. Time to see if their correct or not. I think I've cooled as much as I can until the precip moves in. 40/22 presently. I expect a 34-36F pasting of snow.

I am down to 31, 26 degree drop since 2

[ineedsnow]

or you can just meet in the middle and its still 31 thats how i do it

Tim Kelly rule. Add temp and dewpoint and divide by 2.

40+22=62/2 --- 31F

Enjoy your plastering.

[adamrivers]

30 right now downtown Springfield.......a little colder than forecasted. Hmmm...

[bboughton]

Meeting in the middle is the same as adding and dividing by 2...

[Ginx snewx]

Meeting in the middle is the same as adding and dividing by 2...

Woah. That new math is tough stuff LOL

[NorEastermass128]

34.9F here. Not sure of the DP. Expecting up to 2" here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Link to the HRRR Northeast.

http://rapidrefresh....+Feb+2012+-+01Z

[Ginx snewx]

Lol Ryan's boss used my overachiever phrase. 1-3 statewide lollies of 4

[SouthCoastMA]

March 1st storm starting to look more and more like a lakes cutter. Wonderful

[Typhoon Tip]

March 1st storm starting to look more and more like a lakes cutter. Wonderful

If you are basing that on the 00z run of the GFS, that's not really a Lakes cutter when cuts west of the Lakes.

[Rocket]

36/26 here now. Anyone give a guess as to when the snow will begin at 495/90 and ORH?

[Rocket]

Link to the HRRR Northeast.

http://rapidrefresh....+Feb+2012+-+01Z

Wow, the HRRR seems to be pushing the precip. south, no? Just caught channel 7 saying that moderate snow, 2 to 3 inches will fall, in a short time just south of the Pike, putting us right on the edge.

[Chrisrotary12]

Hey Hey Hey, no one said that there would be simple math involved!!! Someone is going to have to refresh me on finding the average of two numbers. I have been much to busy trying to take derivatives or integrating. Or learning about the drift velocity of a particle in the ionosphere to possibly be able to do that simple math. If I have to use a calculator then I'm leaving. lol

Expecting a wet ground when I wake up. That is all.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey Hey Hey, no one said that there would be simple math involved!!! Someone is going to have to refresh me on finding the average of two numbers. I have been much to busy trying to take derivatives or integrating. Or learning about the drift velocity of a particle in the ionosphere to possibly be able to do that simple math. If I have to use a calculator then I'm leaving. lol

Expecting a wet ground when I wake up. That is all.

RUC expanding death band and heavier, HRRR doing the same, do not forget Bob linked to 1Z, check your time stamp, oh this is interesting.

[NorEastermass128]

Hey Hey Hey, no one said that there would be simple math involved!!! Someone is going to have to refresh me on finding the average of two numbers. I have been much to busy trying to take derivatives or integrating. Or learning about the drift velocity of a particle in the ionosphere to possibly be able to do that simple math. If I have to use a calculator then I'm leaving. lol

Expecting a wet ground when I wake up. That is all.

And TOO busy to proofread

You up in NH? Could be a mini screw zone in S NH in which they miss round one and are too warm for round two.

[Chrisrotary12]

And TOO busy to proofread

You up in NH? Could be a mini screw zone in S NH in which they miss round one and are too warm for round two.

Jerk. lol. Not in New Hampshire. Still in Lowell like my location says......expecting the screw zone though

[NorEastermass128]

Jerk. lol. Not in New Hampshire. Still in Lowell like my location says......expecting the screw zone though

RUC would suggest a couple inches for Lowell though. I think you could be pleasantly surprised. We'll see.

[Logan11]

Anyone have a link to an RUC site other than the main NCEP models page? I have seen people posting maps from some other site ....looked better.

[Chrisrotary12]

I hope you are right, but I am quickly learning that keeping my expectations low is the best way to go in this business.

[Ginx snewx]

Only call 4-6 Pete will, Kev"

2-5 Ryan to me.

[NorEastermass128]

I hope you are right, but I am quickly learning that keeping my expectations low is the best way to go in this business.

Yeah, definitely this winter. Each winter has a personality you'll learn. Some winters will find a way to over perform any ripple in the jet into a significant snow.

[ChrisM]

Only call 4-6 Pete will, Kev"

2-5 Ryan to me.

Look at that radar Steve...looks beautiful if you ask me. Still sticking by my 5" for home, 2" for school

[NorEastermass128]

Only call 4-6 Pete will, Kev"

2-5 Ryan to me.

GL!

Hoping you verify on the higher end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

March 1st storm starting to look more and more like a lakes cutter. Wonderful

Just emotionally disconnect.

Fold 'em.

34.4\26

[weathafella]

Hope we get some observable snow. Unfortunately I came down with something this afternoon so unsure I'll make the bell or even be able to go to NYC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hope we get some observable snow. Unfortunately I came down with something this afternoon so unsure I'll make the bell or even be able to go to NYC.

Sucks.

Feel better, buddy.

33.7\26

Stilll trickling down.

[PoconoSnow]

Just a heads up to you New England folks, light snow has begun here in north east Pennsylvania, in the Poconos. Moderate sleet is now being reported as far south as Allentown Pennsylvania as well.