CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Scott or someone What's the QPF like back here in CT? Seems like it's at least somewhat similar to the GFS for at least eastern sections? Very close to the GFS op fwiw. Maybe just a hair less over CT, but darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, probably would not have happened statistically, but it could be close...Hope you get 4"+ Oh I don't mean just this event causing it to fail....I just had a hard time thinking I'll be stuck at 8 or 9" through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Scott or someone What's the QPF like back here in CT? Seems like it's at least somewhat similar to the GFS for at least eastern sections? It's out on wunderground. It's similar to the gfs. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One thing to remember again is that whenever there is an apparent convective issue of one type or another it seems to vanish at around 36-42 hours from event which means around 24 hours lead on the convection itself. Kind of happened again here here all at once the random signals vanished and we got a pretty good and solid cone of solutions. It's pretty predictable it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like almost .6" at the elbow of the cape. Could be a nice afternoon on the cape tomorrow with 1"/hour from 11-4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Oh I don't mean just this event causing it to fail....I just had a hard time thinking I'll be stuck at 8 or 9" through March. Oh, I know. I hear Will's calculator already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, probably would not have happened statistically, but it could be close...Hope you get 4"+ 1.2 ties it. It seems almost impossible not to get that for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Oh I don't mean just this event causing it to fail....I just had a hard time thinking I'll be stuck at 8 or 9" through March. It's out on wunderground. It's similar to the gfs. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Thanks guys. Question on wunderground though...that doesn't give total QPF...just 3-HR interval or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thanks guys. Question on wunderground though...that doesn't give total QPF...just 3-HR interval or what? Yeah its every 3 hours. I usually just pick an area and roughly add it up in my head...if someone knows a way to get total euro qpf off of wunderground that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'll take it. .2-.25 here on the EC, Ukie, and gfs. I like a call of 1-3" here although I'd lean towards the 3". Still hoping this comes like 25-50 miles west last minute. Congrats to Phil...6" looking likely there imo....he might be beating me in sf totals after this storm if he pulled off like 7-8" and I only got 1" This is def a senerio where our backyard is either "in" or "out" .. not a whole lot of inbetween. I think we will be lucky to see more than 1.5" or 2" max. I think the NW edge of the precip shield is probably a little expansive to the NW as modeled, especially the Euro / GFS. I think there will be a sharp QPF gradient more than anything in southeast Mass. best guestimate is 3"-6" coastal plymouth to newport south+east, spot 7" amount possible just over the canal to the lower cape .. 1"-3" the rest of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Oh, I know. I hear Will's calculator already... LOL, Well I'm around 9" at home locally. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro bumped up QPF by a decent amount. Really gives the Cape some fun tomorrow aftn. 0.25" line is from Gay to Steve roughly. 0.5 line from just north of PYM to near Bob. Wish so much you would guys would give city names instead of where members live. I would love to know where the .25" and .5" line is but have no idea where Gay/Steve/Bob lives. Frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wish so much you would guys would give city names instead of where members live. I would love to know where the .25" and .5" line is but have no idea where Gay/Steve/Bob lives. Frustrating! .5 extends from about Duxbury/Plymouth over to about the NWS Taunton Office... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 First convection has kicked off east of Florida...and the mini s/w is trucking east under LA (the state). Overall looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah its every 3 hours. I usually just pick an area and roughly add it up in my head...if someone knows a way to get total euro qpf off of wunderground that would be nice. You could probably get the total based on every 3-HR's...trying to figure out what you would do... If one 3-HR gave you 0.2 then the next 3-HR 0.3 then the next 3-HR 0.5 would you just add that to 1.0''? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro is cooking up PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One should wonder if this thread's title ought be converted to "Feb 11/12 No Storm Disco 20 - as in, 20 times and counting..." Right now over at CNN's front page there are 2 headlines regarding killer winter conditions through Europe and Asia. There have been numerous now scrolled over the past 2 weeks. Leading up to that interval of time the AO had tanked. Conclusion, the lion's share - if not all - the flux to middle latitudes was biased on the Eurasian side of the northern Hemisphere, affectively stranding N/A from anything. The AO is currently now progged to go back above 0.0 into positive nearing the end of the month. What this season heretofore has provided is that whenever the AO is positive the air mass in the lower 48 goes exotically above normal. What few may not know is that the Global temperatures overall have dropped severally over the last 10 years. I have seen a colorized layout of the current Global anomally distribution and you would be disturbed at how singularly the CONUS is the positive outlier. Meanwhile, the PNA is now falling negative in the extended at both CPC and CDC; and the MJO, seemingly achieving the physically impossible of bursting intensely through Phase 7 now entering 8 and not having any tangible impact on pattern, is suppposed to be dead by the 25th of the month in the means. What does all that spell? ...better than a 50/50 chance of an obnoxiously early spring. The kind where (yet again...) there is no appreciable threat in March, and the month winds up +5 to who knows ... +10 across the board. I recall April of 2008 there was a heat into the mid 90's during that month. Given the 6 month warm anomaly trend persistence at least excuse imaginable, and considering we don't really see any reason that should break (other than any unknown random time that it decides to do so), ...eh, Sorry, just the way things look. If we can't cash in, in the next 10 days, seasonal trend combined with the current teleconnector prognostics do not bold well at all for those holding onto hope that this winter will at all - as in "ever" - produce. In terms of my own stake/interest in recouperating on winter weather experiences, this year is now officially the worst joke I have ever witnessed. Really. Unmatched. To put this into perspective, I didn't think this was imaginatively possible quite frankly. In 1994-1995, there was one decent to major sized snowstorm, followed by severe cold that lasted 3-5 days. Otherwise, that winter is 2nd on the list of awe inspiring no shows. And to hone in on what the beginning of this brief essay describes, this has been a singular plague that has struck N/A below the 45th parallel only. The Canadian shield has had plenty of winter and the cyrosphere massively demonstrates that. If you look at your snow depth charts the front of a veritable glacier sits right over the north side of the border with Canada (glacier = euphamism). Japan, Afghanistan, Croatia, eastern Europ ...everywhere, awesome winter. U.S., in pergatory - period. Hm. Can it last to April 1....? For me, I basically think you are good to go from brown down to green up. Any time between those periods in Autumn and Spring, things can rock and roll. Obviously, extending beyond in rare occasions ... But over the long haul, I figure November 10 to about April 20th is about it - and obviously the probability curve is on the rise and falling around those end dates, respectively. At the current time, it certainly seems for this particular season the falling probabilities have gone LESS THAN ZERO - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shouldn't Tips post be in the War and Peace novel? At any rate..what does the euro do with the Tuesday nite event? anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro is cooking up PD3. How far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How far out? Duh... nevermind...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lol I feel like in the last few weeks Jerry has taken my place in looking for those long range threats. I'm really excited for the Cape and SE MA tomorrow. Hopefully you guys can pull off something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 huh??????????/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lol Acric front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shouldn't Tips post be in the War and Peace novel? At any rate..what does the euro do with the Tuesday nite event? anything? Damped almost out of existence. Everyone is left in a weak southwest flow, and modestly above normal temps. The next system it takes it west of New England... Perhaps some front end snow/mix...then cuts/ends it as a high latitude Miller B jump into the GOM. It's just another solution in a growing cornucopia where there is zero continuity, and a hodge-podge of different potentials that keep getting churned out in a current synoptic pattern that is proved impossible for the models to handle - but has verified as warm and/or serenely calm, anyway. in other words, don't believe it. It will break warm and boring ...based purely on mind-boggling peristence to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shouldn't Tips post be in the War and Peace novel? At any rate..what does the euro do with the Tuesday nite event? anything? No it sort of squashed it se. That one doesn't look hot. The weekend storm almost looks SWFE on the euro op, but without the arctic air. Behind that is another low that rots east of NC, but there is a signal in the Friday-Sunday tiemframe of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 huh??????????/ Something tells me whoever made this lives in the Tristate region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Damped almost out of existence. Everyone is left in a weak southwest flow, and modestly above normal temps. The next system it takes it west of New England... Perhaps some front end snow/mix...then cuts/ends it as a high latitude Miller B jump into the GOM. It's just another solution in a growing cornucopia where there is zero continuity, and a hodge-podge of different potentials that keep getting churned out in a current synoptic pattern that is proved impossible for the models to handle - but has verified as warm and/or serenely calm, anyway. in other words, don't believe it. It will break warm and boring ...based purely on mind-boggling peristence to do so. It might, but next weekend looked kind of interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lol I feel like in the last few weeks Jerry has taken my place in looking for those long range threats. I'm really excited for the Cape and SE MA tomorrow. Hopefully you guys can pull off something good Time for you to bust out a snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is def a senerio where our backyard is either "in" or "out" .. not a whole lot of inbetween. I think we will be lucky to see more than 1.5" or 2" max. I think the NW edge of the precip shield is probably a little expansive to the NW as modeled, especially the Euro / GFS. I think there will be a sharp QPF gradient more than anything in southeast Mass. best guestimate is 3"-6" coastal plymouth to newport south+east, spot 7" amount possible just over the canal to the lower cape .. 1"-3" the rest of SNE I was thinking the same thing about my area, hopefully this thing moves 25-50 miles nw by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Damped almost out of existence. Everyone is left in a weak southwest flow, and modestly above normal temps. The next system it takes it west of New England... Perhaps some front end snow/mix...then cuts/ends it as a high latitude Miller B jump into the GOM. It's just another solution in a growing cornucopia where there is zero continuity, and a hodge-podge of different potentials that keep getting churned out in a current synoptic pattern that is proved impossible for the models to handle - but has verified as warm and/or serenely calm, anyway. in other words, don't believe it. It will break warm and boring ...based purely on mind-boggling peristence to do so. This winter has clearly gotten to you. Where's the positive Tip we're used to? At least save the negative posts until after SE MA and E MA enjoy their snows tomorrow. Please don't taint that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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