snowNH Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z GFS and 12z Euro has a ton of cold air and nice coastal/overunning event for Friday into Saturday.. This might the case where we COULD afford a more amped solution. I love the the cold air and High in Canada. Post about the storm here. I'm trying my juju this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Should look at the Thursday nite deal first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Snownh storm thread.. juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The high pressure on this threat looks very favorable on both the GEFS and EC ensembles...would imply very good CAD and possibly keep the storm as all or mostly snow for a good chunk of the region...but even if it doesn't...there would very likely be an icing threat with that high location to the north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 perhaps this is a pattern change storm as we go to our temporary torch before February roars in like a lion. Clipper on Thursday lays down a nice 2-4 lollies to 6, brings in fresh cold air, coastal develops with help from temporary blocking from clipper leaving 4-8 lollies to 12. Torch comes but is muted by pesky highs, snowcover hangs in and then we start rocking with some blocking around the Davis Strait. In the end, the NAO saves us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks favorable for most of the region away from the immediate coast. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 BOX is leaning towards a snowy Saturday that leads to a WWA. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT /SECOND SYS/... ALTHO MDL SOLNS TREND SUCCINCTLY WITH SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT SHRTWV TRAINING THRU THE LONGWAVE PATTERN S OF NEW ENGLAND...THERE ARE STILL MANY DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF SYS. AS THE FCST STANDS PRESENTLY...THE SFC LOW REMAINING S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP COLDER AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE RGN AND P-TYPE MORESO IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ACCUM/S MAY REQUIRE THE NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADV. SYSTEM EXITS OUT AT THE LATEST MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS has a nice piece of energy coming across MO at 96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looking good (esp. north of the Pike) on the 12z GFS. EURO suppressed, GFS north....compromise equals decent snow event in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Nice event on the 12z GFS N of the MA/CT-RI border, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looking good (esp. north of the Pike) on the 12z GFS. EURO suppressed, GFS north....compromise equals decent snow event in SNE. I actually don't mind the look of the 12z GFS on this one. Would like to see the Euro come a bit north of last night but not by too much. Having a H in place over SE Canada bodes well for most of us. The last two runs of the GFS were very close to one another on this system with regard to the advancement of the 0º C line in SNE. Plenty of wiggle room given the time frame, but it helps be trust the H as a reliable element in the scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looks like a high end advisory 4-7" event for most at 108hr. CT/RI/SE mass maybe less, temps look borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looking at the gfs further looks like some icing potential for CT...surfaces temps <32 despite it not supporting snow. Of course its the gfs day 4/5 and the euro had this much farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Looking at the gfs further looks like some icing potential for CT...surfaces temps <32 despite it not supporting snow. Of course its the gfs day 4/5 and the euro had this much farther south. Well if you trust the model forecast soundings this far out (and you shouldn't), it would be a snow to rain to freezing drizzle scenario for most of CT with several inches accumulation in the north transitioning to an inch or two along the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Heavy snow on 18z GFS.. nice gradient.. another Kevin meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Man the gfs torches sne south of the pike:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GFS does show the possible trend north. Kind of a weird pattern, as the s/w really sucks, but it's just some good WAA. It's only Tuesday so plenty of time for the details. I can see both solutions, as it has to do with s/w's and whether one model like more than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro as usual is the way to go..The last couple systems have all trended colder with the higs to the north...keep that in mind as you bang the GFS every six hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro as usual is the way to go..The last couple systems have all trended colder with the higs to the north...keep that in mind as you bang the GFS every six hours Pretty bold statement so far out. There is room for both. Either way, something to track, but good to see high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z gfs day 8/9 should be locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z gfs day 8/9 should be locked. Saturday =/= Day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Saturday =/= Day 8. i'm aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 i'm aware. I believe I read your post wrong haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Pretty bold statement so far out. There is room for both. Either way, something to track, but good to see high pressure to the north. Yes but it's nice to see the Rev always finding a way to make it snow in his backyard...EURO is right if it's cold and snowy and if it's too warm then it will trend cold and snowy. This is much better than the "it's never ever going to snow again, this ones going to Vim Toot. I hate my life." type of posts we've seen lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes but it's nice to see the Rev always finding a way to make it snow in his backyard...EURO is right if it's cold and snowy and if it's too warm then it will trend cold and snowy. This is much better than the "it's never ever going to snow again, this ones going to Vim Toot. I hate my life." type of posts we've seen lately Agreed. We shouldn't talk about Kevin when he can't defend himself. It's well after his bedtime. Feetsie Pajamas FTW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes but it's nice to see the Rev always finding a way to make it snow in his backyard...EURO is right if it's cold and snowy and if it's too warm then it will trend cold and snowy. This is much better than the "it's never ever going to snow again, this ones going to Vim Toot. I hate my life." type of posts we've seen lately I don't think people went that far but you have to understand that its easier for you to say that when you have a foot of powder and people here are looking at bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS is an ultimate weenie solution for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z GFS is an ultimate weenie solution for SNE. Lock it up. Does show what a little blocking can do if the timing is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't think people went that far but you have to understand that its easier for you to say that when you have a foot of powder and people here are looking at bare ground. Oh trust me I was getting to that point around Dec 20 when it was still bare up here. I'm just joking around. I love Kevs posts but you know having a foot of snow is fun but even then its hard to enjoy it on the board with all the pessimism that was going around. Trust me I remember 2001-2002 in Albany when I was inhigh school that winter definitely affected my mood towards life in general...that was the turning point in deciding to go to college in Vermont. Snow means that much to me haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM at 84h has the high over Vim Toot and the low running out of the OH Valley...definite snow/ice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.