CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Even the warmer GFS seems to be all snow for now, at BOS on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Fire it up! Saturday looks like the real deal for someone. Plety of time to work out the details, but we are now in the deadly 4 day range for the Euro so wholesale model changes should be minimal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Here's the lesson re-learned: 1. Good antecedent cold goes a long way as a starter. 2. A holding high often seals the deal. Let's look at the cases: Last week. Holding high too far north for parts of SNE but great antecedent conds in NNE. Bingo Monday night. Stout cold with waa snows. You saw how warm the other side got but the antecedent cold held the day. Future: tomorrow night: waa from low passing overhead....in a very cold airmass. Should yield some convective snows. Saturday: overrunning with good antecedent cold and a holding high. Don't be surprised if the snows in this system end up way exceeding guidance...as in borderline MECS. Good times have returned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Here's the lesson re-learned: 1. Good antecedent cold goes a long way as a starter. 2. A holding high often seals the deal. Let's look at the cases: Last week. Holding high too far north for parts of SNE but great antecedent conds in NNE. Bingo Monday night. Stout cold with waa snows. You saw how warm the other side got but the antecedent cold held the day. Future: tomorrow night: waa from low passing overhead....in a very cold airmass. Should yield some convective snows. Saturday: overrunning with good antecedent cold and a holding high. Don't be surprised if the snows in this system end up way exceeding guidance...as in borderline MECS. Good times have returned? is that a DT term...did those all originate with him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 is that a DT term...did those all originate with him? Yes. But if it's rain it would be SECL....significant east coast low.. In this case MECS is major east coast snow..although arguably only the northeast this time. His mind works in funny ways. I also find it amusing that as soon as he put out the word of torch...the guidance started changing. He's noTebow...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Here's the lesson re-learned: 1. Good antecedent cold goes a long way as a starter. 2. A holding high often seals the deal. Let's look at the cases: Last week. Holding high too far north for parts of SNE but great antecedent conds in NNE. Bingo Monday night. Stout cold with waa snows. You saw how warm the other side got but the antecedent cold held the day. Future: tomorrow night: waa from low passing overhead....in a very cold airmass. Should yield some convective snows. Saturday: overrunning with good antecedent cold and a holding high. Don't be surprised if the snows in this system end up way exceeding guidance...as in borderline MECS. Good times have returned? Agree! Another point I'd add regarding the evolution of models in the past week: We've gone from cold rainy cutters and raging torch next week to a more wintry pattern with multiple smaller-moderate events and much mitigated torch. Snow and cold beget snow and cold... last weekend finally introduced a nice bolus of cold and snow and a decent blocking high, the gradient for SWFE's has been pushed south, and the antecedent snowcover (now mostly to our northwest) begets more snow events. The AK vortex hex was broken, and you gave the perfect analogy for what we're seeing: after the first hit, the pitcher often unravels. Harder for me to say what happens into February and if a robust AK vortex and consequences makes a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Funny thing is we had foxboro 60 and sunny Sunday. Now it looks like 30s with visible snow in the sidelines. First major torch that may be heading to failure....or at least a not insignificant delay. I like where we're going. Scott...you alluded to euro ens looking good in the long range? High pressure in SE Canada doing it's work and the Atlantic side slowly starting to come around. The NAO shall save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The models as usual are having trouble breaking out precip in the WAA/overrunning region ahead of the disturbance late Friday night, the NAM has high RH levels in the mid-layers but shows no surface precip other than over W-NY and W-PA...I believe alot like events such as 2/11/94, 12/14/03, 2/22/08 there is going to be snow well ahead of where any of the guidance shows it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM actually has an ice storm for the Saturday event for interior SNE. Its showed the least CAD in the mid-levels of any model...kind of like last Thursday. Strange since its usually more bullish on that kind of thing. Probably not really worth analyzing too much given its in its worst time frame beyond 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes. But if it's rain it would be SECL....significant east coast low.. In this case MECS is major east coast snow..although arguably only the northeast this time. His mind works in funny ways. I also find it amusing that as soon as he put out the word of torch...the guidance started changing. He's noTebow...lol. Whatever DT has forecasted this winter..the exact opposite has happened. He has been beyond awful..and is right there with LC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, what a weird solution on the NAM. Torch in the mid levels, and ice cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM actually has an ice storm for the Saturday event for interior SNE. Its showed the least CAD in the mid-levels of any model...kind of like last Thursday. Strange since its usually more bullish on that kind of thing. Probably not really worth analyzing too much given its in its worst time frame beyond 60 hours. Its got quite the CAD signature on the surface at 69 hours, I've told everyone NYC's snowless January will fall guaranteed if the NAM's positioning of the high is correct not to mention the event would be frozen for an extensive period in SNE, thats a big if as you mention given its during the NAM's unreliable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM actually has an ice storm for the Saturday event for interior SNE. Its showed the least CAD in the mid-levels of any model...kind of like last Thursday. Strange since its usually more bullish on that kind of thing. Probably not really worth analyzing too much given its in its worst time frame beyond 60 hours. Or less as has been witnessed lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 W've seen the NAM totally flip from it's usual bias. Typically it's always too cold and suppressed but this winter esp the last few events it's been way too warm and north. Th GFS with it's God awful all around abilities has been colder and more accurate than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM actually has an ice storm for the Saturday event for interior SNE. Its showed the least CAD in the mid-levels of any model...kind of like last Thursday. Strange since its usually more bullish on that kind of thing. Probably not really worth analyzing too much given its in its worst time frame beyond 60 hours. What do you think for timing of anything... mid-day like BOX is saying? We have our Winter Carnival Saturday...might need to push it to Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, what a weird solution on the NAM. Torch in the mid levels, and ice cold at the surface. It has the 540 thickness line south of the 850 0C line by like 25 miles, lol...you hardly ever see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hunchback..I'd guess it's snowing by midday here and mid afternoon up by you on Sat..Shouldn't a winter carnival actually take place in winter wx with snow falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Humor in the AFD: AM SOMEWHAT BEWILDERED AND SURPRISED WITH THE FCST AMOUNT OF PRECIP AS THE SYS IS ASSOC WITH FAIRLY WEAK DYNAMICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 W've seen the NAM totally flip from it's usual bias. Typically it's always too cold and suppressed but this winter esp the last few events it's been way too warm and north. Th GFS with it's God awful all around abilities has been colder and more accurate than the NAM I thought you said never follow the GFS? Or is it because it shows snow and the NAM doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hunchback..I'd guess it's snowing by midday here and mid afternoon up by you on Sat..Shouldn't a winter carnival actually take place in winter wx with snow falling? lol... I agree, but it is an indoor thing for the PTO here. People won't come up our hill in the snow. GFS FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hunchback..I'd guess it's snowing by midday here and mid afternoon up by you on Sat..Shouldn't a winter carnival actually take place in winter wx with snow falling? Euro and GFS both have it snowing by morning...Euro even slightly earlier...maybe starting predawn hours on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 W've seen the NAM totally flip from it's usual bias. Typically it's always too cold and suppressed but this winter esp the last few events it's been way too warm and north. Th GFS with it's God awful all around abilities has been colder and more accurate than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro and GFS both have it snowing by morning...Euro even slightly earlier...maybe starting predawn hours on Saturday. That;s pretty bullish for the Euro as typically it's slower. It looked like it might want to linger some lighter snows on NE flow even into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Humor in the AFD: AM SOMEWHAT BEWILDERED AND SURPRISED WITH THE FCST AMOUNT OF PRECIP AS THE SYS IS ASSOC WITH FAIRLY WEAK DYNAMICS. BTV forecasting dry air working south will limit much of anything up here to flurries, but then leaves the door open for a slightly further north track. Overall doesn't look all that interesting up this way at the moment. Its about time we got one of these where the high was strong enough to hold off precip up at this latitude. TYPICALLY MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND NORMALLY DON`T START TO HANDLE THESE SYSTEMS WELL UNTIL THEY EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES. FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. FEEL POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA WL ADVECT LLVL DRY AIR INTO NORTHERN VT/NY...INCLUDING THE CPV...RESULTING IN MAINLY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. BEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500M RH...ALONG WITH 700 TO 500MB UVVS WL TRACK CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW PRES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SNE. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SLIGHTLY FURTHER TRACK NORTH DEVELOPS...SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE CPV AND NORTHERN VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ive been afraid to sign in here. Good to see you guys havent hung yourselves with a string of ps (edit), I did my best to help. I sold my plow truck and bought a rear wheel drive car with summer tires on it. Sorry to say that was in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ive been afraid to sign in here. Good to see you guys havent hung yourselves with a string of ps (edit), I did my best to help. I sold my plow truck and bought a rear wheel drive car with summer tires on it. Sorry to say that was in December. I love my rear wheel drive SUV in the snow. A different style of driving, but I have never been stuck or lost control (except for the time a semi slide sideways in front of me on the highway on 95 in Maine, but I managed to save it then too. Ironic part being a Maine state trooper cut him off causing the incident) I like the snow driving, you can actually take turns with a little bit of controlled drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nice moderate event on the GFS. Boy, does it feel like a breath of fresh air talking about events. What a toxic environment we where in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 OT : Two hour special on 1938 storm on History Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nice moderate event on the GFS. Boy, does it feel like a breath of fresh air talking about events. What a toxic environment we where in. Coming in line with the Euro after being torched for southern areas of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Seems like a 4-8/5-10 inch type of storm Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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