Zeus Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Seems like a 4-8/5-10 inch type of storm Saturday I think you're a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Coming in line with the Euro after being torched for southern areas of SNE. who woulda thought the GFS would cave to the Euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS looks way more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If that high builds in, might be cold enough for lingering lighter snow of flurries along parts of the coast..with that storm stalled well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If that high builds in, might be cold enough for lingering lighter snow of flurries along parts of the coast..with that storm stalled well south. We all might have lingering light weenie snows on Sunday. Still snowing for Pats game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think you're a bit high. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If that high builds in, might be cold enough for lingering lighter snow of flurries along parts of the coast..with that storm stalled well south. God I love when that happens in Eastern Mass. So much fun when the light snow lingers while you shovel out or clean up after a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What a weird pattern early next week. GFS tries to being up that low from the south, and it tries to get some mixed precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 God I love when that happens in Eastern Mass. So much fun when the light snow lingers while you shovel out or clean up after a storm. Eh, it could be just some clouds if the airmass is too dry. I only said it as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Low moves in from the west to flood the mid levels with warmth, but cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 snowstorm followed by an icestorm winter is here Low moves in from the west to flood the mid levels with warmth, but cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'll take 4-7" on Saturday. Looks like a daytime storm finally. We've had way too many storms where I've had to lose sleep to be up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Low moves in from the west to flood the mid levels with warmth, but cold at the surface. Definitely has that look with the "secondary" riding up the coast. La la land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its got quite the CAD signature on the surface at 69 hours, I've told everyone NYC's snowless January will fall guaranteed if the NAM's positioning of the high is correct not to mention the event would be frozen for an extensive period in SNE, thats a big if as you mention given its during the NAM's unreliable range. I like how the 06z GFS resaturates the column on a persistent ENE flow setting up - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'll take 4-7" on Saturday. Looks like a daytime storm finally. We've had way too many storms where I've had to lose sleep to be up for. even last year all those storms were at night. I can't even remember the last time I saw good snow during the daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Seems like a 4-8/5-10 inch type of storm Saturday Lollis to 12-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It still could get ugly next week with a storm trying to ride west and gives us a cold rain at some point, but at least a few things to watch between now and then. I wouldn't say this marks a pattern change yet..but just some good timing with cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lollis to 12-14". I know, right? Here's hoping the Euro holds serve later this afternoon, as I'm rather fond of where things are at right now with the GFS and Euro as far as Saturday is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'll take 4-7" on Saturday. Looks like a daytime storm finally. We've had way too many storms where I've had to lose sleep to be up for. I feel as if the Saturday event will be more of a mixed bag / ice event then a pure snow event .. perhaps 2"-4" followed by sleet and 1/8" glaze? idk just throwing that option out there , but it looks as if the surface will def stay cold throughout , just a function of the mid levels / mid levels warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'll take 4-7" on Saturday. Looks like a daytime storm finally. We've had way too many storms where I've had to lose sleep to be up for. Haha, Really? You mean the only storms we've had this year were at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What is the EURO showing for this event? Where are these 4-7" or 5-10" amounts coming from? I'm seeing 0.25-0.4" of liquid on GFS model extraction, with spot 0.5" amounts down along the south coast where it looks like rain or mix. Canadian also seems to be showing max of around 0.5" with maybe a bit more southeast areas but again looks like mixed where max QPF is. Even BOX was surprised with the amount of QPF models were showing for lackluster dynamics. Is the EURO a bomb with 0.75" of liquid up at BDL-ORH or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What is the EURO showing for this event? Where are these 4-7" or 5-10" amounts coming from? I'm seeing 0.25-0.4" of liquid on GFS model extraction, with spot 0.5" amounts down along the south coast where it looks like rain or mix. Canadian also seems to be showing max of around 0.5" with maybe a bit more southeast areas but again looks like mixed where max QPF is. Even BOX was surprised with the amount of QPF models were showing for lackluster dynamics. Is the EURO a bomb with 0.75" of liquid up at BDL-ORH or something? QPF will have a limit as the dynamics aren't impressive. It's mainly WAA driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 even last year all those storms were at night. I can't even remember the last time I saw good snow during the daylight. I know it sucked. I can recall 3 times last year where I woke up between 2-5am so I could be up for the bulk of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Seems like a 4-8/5-10 inch type of storm Saturday Not sure where you are seeing these QPF amounts for areas in the cold sector of the storm. Perhaps high end advisory criteria for areas, but mid level warmth needs to be monitored for areas just a tad north of the H85 0C line. Given the weak dynamics of the system, QPF progs may even be a tad too high with some dry air advecting south out of Canada. I would be more wary about throwing such high numbers out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I feel as if the Saturday event will be more of a mixed bag / ice event then a pure snow event .. perhaps 2"-4" followed by sleet and 1/8" glaze? idk just throwing that option out there , but it looks as if the surface will def stay cold throughout , just a function of the mid levels / mid levels warming Yeah... definitely possible. The nam at 78hr would imply hardly any snow...but of course its the nam at 78. Haha, Really? You mean the only storms we've had this year were at night. Well, I mean last year too. The bulk of 1/12 was 1am-5am, same with 1/27, 12/26 was mostly overnight. 4/1 was overnight, etc. The only good day time storm last year was 2/1 when we got 5-8" falling 1"/hour from 9am-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 QPF will have a limit as the dynamics aren't impressive. It's mainly WAA driven. The good thing is a lot of times the WAA patterns seem to result in decent snow growth unless you're getting really warm air way up in the mid levels at H7 or even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What is the EURO showing for this event? Where are these 4-7" or 5-10" amounts coming from? I'm seeing 0.25-0.4" of liquid on GFS model extraction, with spot 0.5" amounts down along the south coast where it looks like rain or mix. Canadian also seems to be showing max of around 0.5" with maybe a bit more southeast areas but again looks like mixed where max QPF is. Even BOX was surprised with the amount of QPF models were showing for lackluster dynamics. Is the EURO a bomb with 0.75" of liquid up at BDL-ORH or something? I believe EURO has a widespread .5-.6? Will said it was low end warning criteria for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The good thing is a lot of times the WAA patterns seem to result in decent snow growth unless you're getting really warm air way up in the mid levels at H7 or even higher. The QPF shield will be a little more widespread than modeled I think. This will have a relatively large shield of at least lighter echoes. Also, can't rule out a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not sure where you are seeing these QPF amounts for areas in the cold sector of the storm. Perhaps high end advisory criteria for areas, but mid level warmth needs to be monitored for areas just a tad north of the H85 0C line. Given the weak dynamics of the system, QPF progs may even be a tad too high with some dry air advecting south out of Canada. I would be more wary about throwing such high numbers out at this point. Oh, you're not supposed to take him seriously. He's not well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lets see if the Euro holds serve, would make me feel a little better of getting somthing measurable this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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