ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes in a heartbeat. But for this event it's all snow except for the extreme s coast You really think its all snow for everyone? There'll be a sneaky warm layer between 700 and 850 that'll screw some people over from HFD-PVD-TAN with any track over Long Island...it may be mainly snow for you but not everyone. Even the Euro supports sleet into HFD for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'd wait for 0z runs to really hone in on this northward trend. 12z Euro held serve and has its Ens behind it. Not honing in, I thought from the start this would be messy for the bottom half of sne, thats a lot of warm air flooding the area at mid levels. The euro ticked north, and was warmer than 0z, not a huge margin but it did. I think most of sne gets a decent winter event outside the south coast and cape, but I think its the areas I outlined before that stay all white, in between snow to taint. Its a win this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Haha you are sick. I agree with you and Mitch. You may see a few pingers or ZR but it'd be the end after the damage is already done. I like 4-6" advisory over a wide area. Yes. Maybe someone in GC sees 7" or 8". I think GC to Will does well, even into VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 My goal for the 2 storms put together is 6". I don't think its too ambitious, but it may be. 2" tomorrow and at least 4" on Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not honing in, I thought from the start this would be messy for the bottom half of sne, thats a lot of warm air flooding the area at mid levels. The euro ticked north, and was warmer than 0z, not a huge margin but it did. I think most of sne gets a decent winter event outside the south coast and cape, but I think its the areas I outlined before that stay all white, in between snow to taint. Its a win this winter. Right. I'm from southern CT and am in VT now, and as an outsider on this event, it takes the biases out of the equation, and to anyone south of HFD-PVD-TAN who thinks there won't be IP/ZR at the height of this thing is crazy. Too much warm between 700 and 850 as the wave goes over Long Island. NW of 84 should see 4" or more, but the coast is screwed outside of an inch or 2 at the onset (barring any southward shifts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Right. I'm from southern CT and am in VT now, and as an outsider on this event, it takes the biases out of the equation, and to anyone south of HFD-PVD-TAN who thinks there won't be IP/ZR at the height of this thing is crazy. Too much warm between 700 and 850 as the wave goes over Long Island. NW of 84 should see 4" or more, but the coast is screwed outside of an inch or 2 at the onset (barring any southward shifts). It will snow in vt, and possibly jackpot in the southern central greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 My goal for the 2 storms put together is 6". I don't think its too ambitious, but it may be. 2" tomorrow and at least 4" on Saturday... Not out of the question for you...Worcester right? If so, yeah 2" appears likely tomorrow and 3-6" is very possible Saturday barring any northward trends. And hey, look at it this way. We haven't had day time snow in forever, so 3-6" during the day is better than a 'useless' 6" nighttime snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not out of the question for you...Worcester right? If so, yeah 2" appears likely tomorrow and 3-6" is very possible Saturday barring any northward trends. And hey, look at it this way. We haven't had day time snow in forever, so 3-6" during the day is better than a 'useless' 6" nighttime snowfall LOL, yup. Looks like gfs gives you 2-3" up there at Lyndon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Haha you are sick. I agree with you and Mitch. You may see a few pingers or ZR but it'd be the end after the damage is already done. I like 4-6" advisory over a wide area. Seems like a good starting point. Nice to have the euro and it's ens on board instead of Amerigarbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It will snow in vt, and possibly jackpot in the southern central greens. I'm in East Bumf*** in the NEK. We are not getting much from either storm, maybe 3" total the way it looks now. But, that's not the point, the point is that the 84/90 corridors could very well be the delineation between a moderate snow event and a light-moderate wintry mix event. People who think it'll be all snow in southern areas are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOL, yup. Looks like gfs gives you 2-3" up there at Lyndon. Lol yeah, we have about 4" on the ground and I was at home in CT for a month...its miserable with nothing on the ground. Naturally we got 1.5" the night I leave (go figure), but I'm rooting for everyone in SNE to get some good snow. It's about time. And yeah if me and Powderfreak can manage 1-3" from both events, I'd be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's not amerigarbage, as was mentioned before...there is the risk of a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm waiting for the 0z runs before going to any conclusions about the precip shield being as far north as it appears, and the mixing line on the 18z runs. I think the NAM is overdone. The 850 0C line will NOT get into the southern greens with a low tracking on that path. Even the GFS tries to punch it all the way up to rt. 2. I just dont see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hopefully the 18z ensembles are more correct, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say a mix could extend into parts of ctrl CT into RI and se mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hopefully the 18z ensembles are more correct, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say a mix could extend into parts of ctrl CT into RI and se mass. That is very common for SWFEs...even up to here I won't be surprised at some mixing, but most of the damage would probably already be done. The really good high location argues for the cold holding pretty firm...even in the mid-levels before a warm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That is very common for SWFEs...even up to here I won't be surprised at some mixing, but most of the damage would probably already be done. The really good high location argues for the cold holding pretty firm...even in the mid-levels before a warm surge. In the back of my mind, I'm thinking that too..maybe ending as brief drizzle or mix then dryslot and temp drop. There is still time to see what happens, but it's one of those options that I'm entertaining. Either way, looks like some snow anyways..even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lol yeah, we have about 4" on the ground and I was at home in CT for a month...its miserable with nothing on the ground. Naturally we got 1.5" the night I leave (go figure), but I'm rooting for everyone in SNE to get some good snow. It's about time. And yeah if me and Powderfreak can manage 1-3" from both events, I'd be satisfied. There's only 4" on the ground up at 1000ft in Lyndon? I know we've had upslope over here but thought you had more. There's like a very frozen solid 9-10" here after yesterday's mixed bag. It is no longer powder but didn't settle much. 11.5" a couple days ago for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's not amerigarbage, as was mentioned before...there is the risk of a tick north. Isn't this sort of like last week except displaced father south? The vortmax was stronger though last week so isn't it fair to say mid-level warmth should be even more limited this time with a stronger sfc high and weaker sfc low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Isn't this sort of like last week except displaced father south? The vortmax was stronger though last week so isn't it fair to say mid-level warmth should be even more limited this time with a stronger sfc high and weaker sfc low? Better high, colder airmass, and weaker s/w. Both will combine for less mid level warmth and low level cold. Finally. It's ok to entertain the idea of a little sleet getting possibly near I-90. It's not in guidance now, but I think it's a possibility. 72 hrs is plenty of time for 50 mile shifts. This isn't something that can shoot into Powderfreaks fanny, but it could get near the Cape. If the low keys on less of a breakaway piece of s/w like the GFS has, than it will be further south like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's not amerigarbage, as was mentioned before...there is the risk of a tick north. It is Americgarbage,,there certainly is the risk of a little ice at the tail end..but it looks to be a 90% or more snow event for most away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm waiting for the 0z runs before going to any conclusions about the precip shield being as far north as it appears, and the mixing line on the 18z runs. I think the NAM is overdone. The 850 0C line will NOT get into the southern greens with a low tracking on that path. Even the GFS tries to punch it all the way up to rt. 2. I just dont see that happening. I think that we get we can see 2-4" or so out of both events...maybe 5" as the mountains can do some funky things. The usual NNE nickel and dime stuff to continue slowly building the pack and add to seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Better high, colder airmass, and weaker s/w. Both will combine for less mid level warmth and low level cold. Finally. It's ok to entertain the idea of a little sleet getting possibly near I-90. It's not in guidance now, but I think it's a possibility. 72 hrs is plenty of time for 50 mile shifts. This isn't something that can shoot into Powderfreaks fanny, but it could get near the Cape. If the low keys on less of a breakaway piece of s/w like the GFS has, than it will be further south like euro. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Talk about a ZR storm, nam soundings show .5 snow, .31 pl, and .62 zr (lol) for ORH. Crippling ice storm on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Oh my. LOL I agree with him. Coastal has had some great analysis today. Very objective. There's only so far north this can go but it could still end up ticking a few miles north. It's just not going to cut up the Hudson Valley or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Talk about a ZR storm, nam soundings show .5 snow, .31 pl, and .62 zr (lol) for ORH. Crippling ice storm on the 18z nam. Wow almost 1.5" QPF for that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is Americgarbage,,there certainly is the risk of a little ice at the tail end..but it looks to be a 90% or more snow event for most away from the coast The GFS gave you mostly snow anyways, so what's your point? It's not like it's advertising rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow almost 1.5" QPF for that storm? Oh, no, my bad. That's .5" accumulated snow (so .05 liquid), .31 accumulated sleet (so maybe .15 liquid), and then .61 ice. So almost all ice for ORH on the nam. edit: It has .81 total qpf, so not 1.5, but still more then ec/gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOL I agree with him. Coastal has had some great analysis today. Very objective. There's only so far north this can go but it could still end up ticking a few miles north. It's just not going to cut up the Hudson Valley or something. I'm liking my locale over the next several days. Looking forward to a few monsters that bury us from GC to NVT. The Feb/March couplet should be prime time this go 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm liking my locale over the next several days. Looking forward to a few monsters that bury us from GC to NVT. The Feb/March couplet should be prime time this go 'round. Yeah you should make out well over the next four days. Probably jackpot from both systems lol. How much you have on the season? Probably more than up here from October. You gotta be close to the 45-47" I've seen down in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm liking my locale over the next several days. Looking forward to a few monsters that bury us from GC to NVT. The Feb/March couplet should be prime time this go 'round. I can't believe you have 52" on the year. There's spots SE of Boston that have .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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