HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No, probably sleet with thicknesses that cold...sfc temps in the teens to mid 20s with a narrow warm layer at 850....but in all honesty, all of that is a huge red flag to begin with...especially with the Euro and other guidance not showing that really narrow warm layer and the arctic high in good location. What's your initial thoughts here? This looks like the best setup since October for you guys and a classic -WPO/gradient storm (I refuse to say southwest flow event because that is just silly). A good 4+ on the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No, probably sleet with thicknesses that cold...sfc temps in the teens to mid 20s with a narrow warm layer at 850....but in all honesty, all of that is a huge red flag to begin with...especially with the Euro and other guidance not showing that really narrow warm layer and the arctic high in good location. I meant was it showing ice... Scooter mentioned mega warm layer. I see your point. NAM is confused. I will check it later. WeatherMA was mentioning ice earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 HM in the house. Good juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 HM in the house. Good juju It's about time we got this type of storm! I am liking the vibe since the DC-Manassas snow on 1/9. A lot of wintry events up our way since, including some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What's your initial thoughts here? This looks like the best setup since October for you guys and a classic -WPO/gradient storm (I refuse to say southwest flow event because that is just silly). A good 4+ on the way.... I'm feeling pretty good for advisory snow (3-5") for most of the SNE region north of a HFD-PVD line...but not quite confident on 6"+ yet...mostly because we can still see this come north in the mid-levels...and if it does, it would introduce more sleet/ZR into the equation...though it would also probably cause better frontogenesis so the snow before the flip would be heavier...so that's why I still feel pretty good about 3-5 or 3-6 even if it comes north. If we can keep a Euro type solution or what many of the GFS runs have shown, then something like 5-8" would be more prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I meant was it showing ice... Scooter mentioned mega warm layer. I see your point. NAM is confused. I will check it later. WeatherMA was mentioning ice earlier 18z nam sounding showed mostly ice...this run was colder. According to Bufkit, this run shows about 3" of snow, 1.5" of sleet, and .1 glaze on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's about time we got this type of storm! I am liking the vibe since the DC-Manassas snow on 1/9. A lot of wintry events up our way since, including some ice. My eyes hurt from trying to thread so many needles lately, Nice to have a good setup for once. Ginxy's month late winter on schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z nam sounding showed mostly ice...this run was colder. According to Bukfit, this run shows about 3" of snow, 1.5" of sleet, and .1 glaze on top. You will have to teach me how to use Bufkit during the summer. Off to bed. 5AM rise and shine (ski club drop offs...grrr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I meant was it showing ice... Scooter mentioned mega warm layer. I see your point. NAM is confused. I will check it later. WeatherMA was mentioning ice earlier It showed ice at 18z for here...but the 00z sounding is a sleet sounding having just checked it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It showed ice at 18z for here...but the 00z sounding is a sleet sounding having just checked it now. Thanks hoping for the Euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm feeling pretty good for advisory snow (3-5") for most of the SNE region north of a HFD-PVD line...but not quite confident on 6"+ yet...mostly because we can still see this come north in the mid-levels...and if it does, it would introduce more sleet/ZR into the equation...though it would also probably cause better frontogenesis so the snow before the flip would be heavier...so that's why I still feel pretty good about 3-5 or 3-6 even if it comes north. If we can keep a Euro type solution or what many of the GFS runs have shown, then something like 5-8" would be more prudent. Agreed and I think this also includes a good chunk of northern PA, NJ and NY. I think that's a good approach to this one. I saw a few icy analogs showing up in the CIPS guidance; but as you said, you can still get a nice 3-5" before the mixing/changeover. It feels good to have winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Agreed and I think this also includes a good chunk of northern PA, NJ and NY. I think that's a good approach to this one. I saw a few icy analogs showing up in the CIPS guidance; but as you said, you can still get a nice 3-5" before the mixing/changeover. It feels good to have winter again. Amen bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You will have to teach me how to use Bufkit during the summer. Off to bed. 5AM rise and shine (ski club drop offs...grrr) Fun. In to school at 7:30 tomorrow then home at 9 after my last exam. Long day. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Meh... I think this will trend drier and drier. The one storm all year where we want amped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM is pretty bullish on the Thursday night event and GGEM was gangbusters on the Saturday storm at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM is pretty bullish on the Thursday night event and GGEM was gangbusters on the Saturday storm at 12Z. rgem nailed mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM is pretty bullish on the Thursday night event and GGEM was gangbusters on the Saturday storm at 12Z. Bring on the double AA releif. The bunt worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 rgem nailed mon night. RGEM is a decent model IMHO. GGEM not so much but it can nail one here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I know it's worthless, but I do like seeing this on the "point and click" disaster (with my modification at the end). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the GFS is going to be quite cold...at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 very cold. HP stays anchored over N VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Two threats -- albeit small -- and yet this place is dead. surprising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the GFS is going to be quite cold...at least initially. I may get a snow shower on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS is very cold! I suspect that qpf is underdone in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Colder and further south, I get cirrus this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS is actually best down by NYC/N NJ (edit: in terms of it's precip output) suppressed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That is a pretty suppressed run...we'll have to see if that's real or not. A couple ensemble members had shown similar solutions the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That is a pretty suppressed run...we'll have to see if that's real or not. A couple ensemble members had shown similar solutions the last few runs. i'd still wager north i think...even i could afford a shift north of that. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thats an incredible shift south, I want to believe that so badly but just cant yet. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I thought I was looking at the wrong date on the GFS, wow big shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.