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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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it is a very progressive zonal flow...models are going to be all over the place.....I'd like to see some model agreement, but I will go with the euro for now and if it takes it away in 2 hours so be it....The NAM is useless at 84 hours....

Well according to Winterwxluvr, the 12z runs are the final solution, so we better hope the GFS and Euro show the same thing.

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we have separate forums for a reason

take a minute to think about why before posting in the future

it's real simple

wrong forum a-sshole

Amen, He likes to follow his hero around from up there. What he sees, he has to do too. it is old and pretty dumb.

LOL...sorry guys. Just joking around. Of course everyone wants what model shows the most snow...it was a joke. If I can't get anything out of this storm...hope you guys get hit good. :hug:

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there is no strategy involved...the NAM is a bad model at day 3....I think people just look at it because it is there....

Matt, how much snow did the euro give us? I haven't had time to look as I was writing my CWG piece on the -PNA and what it might mean to the country and to our snow chances. It has cool scatter diagram (shameless plug).

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CAD gets washed out per 12z. i wish that high to the north could stay put more but i know there is nothing there to hold it.

I am not sure we would want it to... if it did hold, we would be fooked ice storm wise (note the 102 and 105 hr QPF). S PA on THIS RUN gets nasty ice VERBATIM. The 0c 850 retreats north and the 0c 2m line slowly retreats... we probably have light icing (mainly west) to rain

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Well according to Winterwxluvr, the 12z runs are the final solution, so we better hope the GFS and Euro show the same thing.

Just being a smart ass? Or just can't read?

I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out.

Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening.

not looking good

nope. definitely not good.

So why do you care what today's 12z runs show? If the Euro comes in with no snow, keep hoping. Let me know how that works out for you.

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Just being a smart ass? Or just can't read?

So why do you care what today's 12z runs show? If the Euro comes in with no snow, keep hoping. Let me know how that works out for you.

I can read just fine, thank you. You said the 12z runs today would be final, so the GFS gives us no snow. Let's see what Euro does! :)

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See, I don't know which model I want on our side at this point. The Euro is great, but it's not this end all be all some here make it out to be, especially as of late. But then again...if you only have the GFS on your side :yikes:.

If the 12z Euro folds, then I start getting nervous. We still have 3 days left, so no point in punting yet.

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See, I don't know which model I want on our side at this point. The Euro is great, but it's not this end all be all some here make it out to be, especially as of late. But then again...if you only have the GFS on your side :yikes:.

If the 12z Euro folds, then I start getting nervous. We still have 3 days left, so no point in punting yet.

I say this, not for the weenies to get all excited, but more as information to the general public.

There was recon over the Pacific last night, so at least for the Euro, that solution should have been more stable and plausible.

But that is just regarding last nights Euro, not sure about todays GFS and its warmer solution.

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I say this, not for the weenies to get all excited, but more as information to the general public.

There was recon over the Pacific last night, so at least for the Euro, that solution should have been more stable and plausible.

But that is just regarding last nights Euro, not sure about todays GFS and its warmer solution.

the problem is, the north trend is A. typical of NINA winters (or so it seems to my recollection), and B. that OV storm certainly matches what we have seen this winter

at this point, I wouldn't be surprised in ENE gets mainly rain ultimately

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