Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot 0c in n md with .05" qpf by 12z.. you sure that's snow? maybe nw of the city. the run looks worse than 0z otherwise if you want anything of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0c in n md with .05" qpf by 12z.. you sure that's snow? maybe nw of the city. the run looks worse than 0z otherwise if you want anything of consequence. you're right....probably only well NW as snow to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 you're right....probably only well NW as snow to start i guess it does get that little finger of moisture in quicker.. that might be key. the high placement kinda sucks tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 FWIW....I am not calling for a storm....I think these train/bus things are silly...all I have said for a couple days is pay attention to the period, but it has always been low probability and even then probably a minor heavily flawed changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 OK, how often can we say we've seen this before Day 6 Euro 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 OK, how often can we say we've seen this before Day 6 Euro 5H http://vortex.plymou...=h120&cu=latest it pops a really weak low to our south after the first wave but it's pretty mild at that point verbatim and the wave just wanders east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 it pops a really weak low to our south after the first wave but it's pretty mild at that point verbatim and the wave just wanders east. I guess I should have been clearer I was refering to the 3 vortexes over Canada 2, not uncommon at all, but 3 lined up like that intent on doing us dirty is a bit unfair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro gets snow close to us on early Friday with the clipper (which the GFS and GGEM do as well), but the Euro says the Apps eat it all up. I wouldn't be surprised if we eek out a dusting from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 i dont buy the euro. GFS all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I won't be surprised if we get a snow to ice to rain overrunner before the torch next weekend. Certainly the most likely type of winter storm we could get from this type of pattern, a nice little overrunner. Take what we can get, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 i dont buy the euro. GFS all the way Some things never change, you always buy the snowier model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 i dont buy the euro. GFS all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Some things never change, you always buy the snowier model. Euro is not always the king...GFS had the same look for the "JB" minor event that gave us over an inch...Euro had it further north and most here said it would be rain if anything...not over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro is not always the king...GFS had the same look for the "JB" minor event that gave us over an inch...Euro had it further north and most here said it would be rain if anything...not over yet I don't think that's quite true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 to be sure, Euro has beat the GFS several times this winter, but the GFS has beat the Euro as well who knows which way it will be with this one Coastalwx is right in pointing out the track and intensity of the 1st clipper will be key, so we're "in the game" for now is the way I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Anything over +10 departures for a few days in a row is a torch. Sorry. No one said it was gonna torch for the next 2 months. My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JMA is snow to ice to rain. There appears to be a wedge but the 850 temps are high for most of the storm--cant tell what surface temps are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live. It's going to torch next week. Just letting you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live. +10 departures for one day may not be a torch, but for several days or more, yeah it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think that's quite true. It isn't. The Euro actually had that one first. One thing about that one though is IIRC that it ended up colder than modeled by both the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JMA is snow to ice to rain. There appears to be a wedge but the 850 temps are high for most of the storm--cant tell what surface temps are one thing is for sure, whatever happens, it's gonna' be well AN a week from now and beyond up and down the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 one thing is for sure, whatever happens, it's gonna' be well AN a week from now and beyond up and down the east coast Yep though the euro suggests maybe not quite as warm as the 850 temps wouldsuggest towards the end of the pd as the low level winds would have an easterly component. Still it or the euro ens mean make it look like the saturday event is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]: These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Under the heading "2D Maps". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]: These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page: http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Under the heading "2D Maps". cool, the experimental run fits my preconcieved notions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]: These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page: http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Under the heading "2D Maps". neat....thanks...and it isn't a wet towel...we have 0.6" season to date and it is the warmest and least snowy I-95 winter since 2001-02...I'm pretty sure nobody is optimistic about getting snow in this pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 neat....thanks...and it isn't a wet towel...we have 0.6" season to date and it is the warmest and least snowy I-95 winter since 2001-02...I'm pretty sure nobody is optimistic about getting snow in this pattern.... Mitchnick or snowluver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I know others have mentioned as well but maybe we can sneak some -SN in thursday night....certainly the temp profiles are better...just seems like there will be no moisture or perhaps just enought for minor flizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Mitchnick or snowluver? I think they know better, but want to stay "positive".....I am pretty sure for 99% of us , we understand the context of the discussion....We are a bunch of snow weenies, but I think the knowledge level and understanding in the forum overall is pretty high....at this point in the season, we are going to track T-1" events that have a 20% chance of occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Mitchnick or snowluver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 And the 18z say no to the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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