Avdave Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 can't wait to hear about you frying an egg on the blacktop during the upcoming torch but then he will complain that is took to long to fry up and how this pattern sucks too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 it's so pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 it's not going to snow .. we'll live Not Litchfieldlibations, the rest of us should just be OK though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 If that forecast is close to verifying, then it's looking like a nice spring and summer this winter... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 it's so pretty Move to San Diego? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 fixed I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 it's so pretty the height rises to the west of Greenland are potentially a good sign as it looks like the PV has split or peeled off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 the height rises to the west of Greenland are potentially a good sign as it looks like the PV has split or peeled off it won't matter much with that pac vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 it won't matter much with that pac vortex maybe the changes in the Atl have to happen 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 maybe the changes in the Atl have to happen 1st that starts to happen at the end of the gfes run, but the pac vortex is still there http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 that starts to happen at the end of the gfes run, but the pac vortex is still there http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html You better head over to the NE forum. They're ripping you to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 exactly just like after a car accident, the bodies are scraped off the pavement and the traffic begins to flow again life goes on (we hope!) Holy cow, Mitch. I don't think we should compare weather to something like that. That could be pretty personal to someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 that starts to happen at the end of the gfes run, but the pac vortex is still there http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Wow. That is one disgusting model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 it's so pretty Cannot. Wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wow. That is one disgusting model run. You can see -AO get it's ass kicked and the Vortex reclaim the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Tuesday Rain...mainly in the morning. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 14 below. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 ensembles are trying to rise heights near Feb 1 but I am guessing feb 1 to Feb 15 is toast http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f360_nh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday. What's encouraging to me from that graphic is that there are a bunch of events with either the NAO or the AO positive (I wasn't sure which axis was measuring what), and 16 with both positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What's encouraging to me from that graphic is that there are a bunch of events with either the NAO or the AO positive (I wasn't sure which axis was measuring what), and 16 with both positive. Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas? You'll have to ask the author. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas? The 16 events constitutes 22 percent. The other question is how many had a positive PNA. I think then the percentage goes down to about 11% if I remember correctly but that will be in Tuesday's CWG piece. I never looked at enso. That may be the next step now that I've set up the spread sheet. I just need to find daily enso readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 ensembles are trying to rise heights near Feb 1 but I am guessing feb 1 to Feb 15 is toast http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f360_nh.html You have more time in Leesburg. 8-9 productive weeks left. I think we need to get in a cold dominant pattern by 2/20 to salvage winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think I've seen it mentioned, is there a (or how many) winter on record where we received less than 1" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think I've seen it mentioned, is there a (or how many) winter on record where we received less than 1" of snow? I think there have only been 2. 72-73 and 97-98. Both strong Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 00z GFS Saturday....still a longshot but if we get the right timing...snow to rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Were you not smart enough to wear a hat and gloves while running this morning? No, but I only had to because I'd be uncomfortable without them. Uncomfortable temps = gloves, confortable temps = no gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 this looks encouraging....big SE ridge to eastern trough and -NAO a few days later? or am i grasping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 this looks encouraging....big SE ridge to eastern trough and -NAO a few days later? or am i grasping? Naa extrapolating the 384 GFS is solid weeniesm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro weekies improve for mid February, with colder anomalies in the SE US to us, and warm anomalies over N/NE canada. The Monthly Euro sucks for the next two months but picking up on pattern changes isn't something it has done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.