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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday.

post-70-0-56339700-1326678116.gif

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After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday.

post-70-0-56339700-1326678116.gif

What's encouraging to me from that graphic is that there are a bunch of events with either the NAO or the AO positive (I wasn't sure which axis was measuring what), and 16 with both positive.

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Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas?

The 16 events constitutes 22 percent. The other question is how many had a positive PNA. I think then the percentage goes down to about 11% if I remember correctly but that will be in Tuesday's CWG piece. I never looked at enso. That may be the next step now that I've set up the spread sheet. I just need to find daily enso readings.

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