dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro would even be wintry for ktol...not necessarily snow but maybe sleet/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Maybe when all is said and done I'll be smoking cirrus, but I think I prefer being on the colder side of things for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The euro ensembles suggest that the 1999-00 analog has legs. Short period of severe winter than see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 idk about "smoked", but maybe someone can sneak away with 3-5"+. In this, our winter of discontent, that would be smoke for the masses (or the few, depending on how this plays out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Maybe when all is said and done I'll be smoking cirrus, but I think I prefer being on the colder side of things for now. i wouldn't expect you to be smoking cirrus but i wouldn't be surprised to see this come in cooler still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lol....6z GFS is the stuff weenie dreams are made of d 8-15..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lol Go snow or go home Strong southern jet doing this? That would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 seems like the first time all winter that there's actually a bit of a mechanism to promote some CAD/hold in HP for a while. it's not perfect but there's just enough confluent flow that evolves behind tonight's LP as it gets up into the 50/50 zone. really even the ec ens would be OK for C/NNE. i think the euro has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow...I never saw this coming. A storm intially progged to cut thru Buffalo is actually now cold enough to bring most of SNE snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow...I never saw this coming. A storm intially progged to cut thru Buffalo is actually now cold enough to bring most of SNE snow Get the bus serviced today....it may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Sneaky caution Needle time gives in to Tebow time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow...I never saw this coming. A storm intially progged to cut thru Buffalo is actually now cold enough to bring most of SNE snow LOL...why this? i know you do this on purpose i think odds are increasing for at least a portion of the area to be snow and/or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Get the bus serviced today....it may be needed. We need a sermon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As for the LR, the EC ens start to retrograde the PV back toward AK/Yukon by d15 and we go back above normal in the NE. There's a hint of a little ridging at times toward Greenland/Iceland, but nothing much at this point. Hopefully we can cash in a couple times in the next 2 weeks. Please tell me we are not going back to the current pattern we've been in You're kidding right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL...why this? i know you do this on purpose i think odds are increasing for at least a portion of the area to be snow and/or ice. I just meant much of the area would see some snow. Could this be the damaging icestorm I've been clamoring about?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Please tell me we are not going back to the current pattern we've been in You're kidding right? Patterns have memory in seasons it seems. That said, just like this coming pattern change, maybe the one out of it is being rushed a bit. I like the idea of 2-4 weeks of winter ala 1999-00. Let's make hay during that period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Please tell me we are not going back to the current pattern we've been in You're kidding right? They end as a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow this could not get any better... no rain or mix before MLK weekend is a freaking dream come true. Saweeeet! Go for it SNE, you can have this mix. Then this secondary max rotates through and we pick up snow just in time for the weekend... I'm pumped this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Unfortunately, can't say I disagree. The word on LC is that he's a heck of a nice person, but his forecasting Larry is one of the best forecaster out there. You guys forget he called for An amazing end of December and January 2011? He nailed that several months out and in a strong La Nina of all things! Also did great with his severe weather predictions and hurricane season. Ohh yeh and he is a great guy, I've known him over ten years now. One of the best mets in the business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 They end as a disaster. Well many of us should probably leave the board when that happens . I know I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Please tell me we are not going back to the current pattern we've been in You're kidding right? -NAO ridging will save us. We don't go through an entire winter withouth a -NAO. It will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro is a very cold solution...no doubt about it...Ray (NW of BOS by 14 miles) would even get several inches...and the interior like ORH hills would prob get 3-7" and then some ice/sleet before it ends. But this is the coldest guidance has ever been on this event, so its hard to take it too seriously yet...but its starting to get closer in the Euro "lethal" range...so we'll have to watch it more closely. The amazing thing is that its south enough it gives minimal precip to NNE. It looked like rain for them on previous progs. I'm not sure what to make of this, other than there is a distinct cooling trend, but I'm very weary of the Euro overdoing that trend. It did it in the 12/23 event. Yeah I honestly can't believe we may avoid a rainstorm before a holiday weekend in Ski Country. The pattern MUST be changing if nature doesn't want to rain in ski country before big business. Have at it SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro ensembles are a warmer than the op, so hold on for now. We've been down this road before. Lets wait until at least 12z for this.However there is a ridge out west and a transient ridge near Greenland that might help out. It may help keep this suppressed more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As that PV retrogrades, the heights rise significantly to our east and se. The se ridge rises once again. As we said before..I don't know how many times, this pattern is not the most wintry and may not be long lasting. Hopefully it reverses again at 00z, but what the EC does, makes sense for now. Without blocking, that's the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think Kevin would be mad at the euro op. He'll need more help than that. Even I'm colder in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As that PV retrogrades, the heights rise significantly to our east and se. The se ridge rises once again. As we said before..I don't know how many times, this pattern is not the most wintry and may not be long lasting. Hopefully it reverses again at 00z, but what the EC does, makes sense for now. Without blocking, that's the risk. it's funny...i'm kind of to the point where i don't care what the pattern looks like 2 weeks from now. it'll be what it'll be. i'd like to see an event or two get going in the short and mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The difference in the mass fields for Thursday are interesting. Better confluence I assume, because it has high pressure branching into se Canada, which it didn't have before. That's helping to keep SNE pretty cold, especially Will's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Maybe when all is said and done I'll be smoking cirrus, but I think I prefer being on the colder side of things for now. Yes, this. Tebow for snow, in Foxborough...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Please tell me we are not going back to the current pattern we've been in You're kidding right? The AK vortex and the GOA ridge respectively are a b*tch to dislodge when they settle in, we've seen that just about every winter we've had an AK vortex and we saw in 02-03 how damn hard that ridging in the GOA was to get rid of it when it was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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