franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Does not seem like he ever has time to stick his neck out on anything. Why in the world is he talking about storms robbing the moisture this early in the game??! I was wondering the same thing. It's a week away, how could he possible even mention that? Back on topic, 0z nam looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 well channel 13 weather is at least showing a 30 percent chance now for rain changing to a mix both sunday and monday for the asheville area. its a start. Don't like to talk bad about a group of mets in public......so I will just say you would be much better off with the group on WHNS Fox Carolina. Both on TV & esp. the blog. http://www.foxcarolina.com/weather http://www.foxcarolina.com/category/211127/weather-blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was wondering the same thing. It's a week away, how could he possible even mention that? Back on topic, 0z nam looks interesting. looks like somethings trying to brew in the western gulf there sparked from a compact little s/w coming down, with a 1044 high in the plains... dont know if future panels wouldn't suppress that but it looks like a good setup... would love to get that 1044 high in the Wisconsin vicinity instead, but its the 84 hours NAM..... (this shows how desperate we are in the SE for some wintry weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't like to talk bad about a group of mets in public......so I will just say you would be much better off with the group on WHNS Fox Carolina. Both on TV & esp. the blog. http://www.foxcarolina.com/weather http://www.foxcarolina.com/category/211127/weather-blog Yeah, Andy is the man! Not even worth watching any other local network weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 In my opinion, this is a classic example of folks reading what the model is outputting without looking to see if it makes sense. Yes, the 18z GFS shows accumulating snow, but should it? In my opinion, the answer is: not really. I really don't get why some people are saying this is a classic winter storm setup with the surface high out in the Atlantic, and southerly surface winds showing up from VA to ME leading up to the event. There is no cold air feed other than the storm itself, but if you look at the sounding, the winds are southerly throughout the column for the event. If this is going to trend, all the signs are pointing to it trending warmer. A classic winter storm pattern would be last Christmas, and if you go back and compare the synoptic setup to this one, I think you'll see where I'm coming from. I'm feeling kind of the same way. I have not studied all of the maps for this "threat" yet, but so far, it's not really passing the eye test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What is funny the GFS has us in snow for the whole storm sunday.. but the NWS has us clear and sunny no rain (nothing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What is funny the GFS has us in snow for the whole storm sunday.. but the NWS has us clear and sunny no rain (nothing) thats very prudent because on all the other models there is nothing really going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Check out the NAM at 84 it has our energy already moving into TX with that other parcel of energy coming down the Rockies....does that energy phase later on down stream if you extrapolate the NAM? This GFS run might get pretty interesting if the NAM is any indicator...unless I'm totally reading this wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't like to talk bad about a group of mets in public......so I will just say you would be much better off with the group on WHNS Fox Carolina. Both on TV & esp. the blog. http://www.foxcarolina.com/weather http://www.foxcaroli...27/weather-blog Lol the 7 day is way diff than the wlos site.They put us into the 30 this weekend were wlos put us 10-15 degrees warmer. Crazy. Thanks for the Websites Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Check out the NAM at 84 it has our energy already moving into TX with that other parcel of energy coming down the Rockies....does that energy phase later on down stream if you extrapolate the NAM? This GFS run might get pretty interesting if the NAM is any indicator...unless I'm totally reading this wrong. No, your reading it right. The energy coming down the rockies is what the gfs is keying in on. I think the euro keeps this as a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 the NAM is setting the table at 84. Both GFS and NAM now have enough western energy topping the ridge that it could develop or absorb the southwest cutoff just after 84 hours. This fits the pattern this year , of systems breaking as they pass over the western ridge. Since we're entering a new pattern, it only remains to be seen if this trend continues, even with 2 models now showing it. Splitting flow, deep Eastern Canada vortex, southerly tracking system and Arctic air entrenched in most of the nation at 84 to 120 hours is a legitimate setup for Wintry weather in the upper South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Feels good to be back on the board.. not sure who remembers but I have been extremely busy lately just graduated from college in Norfolk.. Im back in NC for a while, and thought the GFS and new NAM looked interesting.. there is no board better than this one for winter weather in the South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Feels good to be back on the board.. not sure who remembers but I have been extremely busy lately just graduated from college in Norfolk.. Im back in NC for a while, and thought the GFS and new NAM looked interesting.. there is no board better than this one for winter weather in the South! Welcome back, but this year that is like saying, "there is no board better than this one for surfing in Kansas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't see the Sunday storm on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am nervous about 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am nervous about 0z gfs Nervous about what? If it's the possible storm this weekend there's no need to be nervous anymore. It did not have the weekend storm. Cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There is no storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 of course there is no storm, bet it comes back tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There is no storm.... No storm and it is seriously over playing the southeast ridge so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe euro will give hope? I am desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There is no storm....on the 0z gfs. Fixed it for ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This thread is cliff diving faster than the weenies off Lookout's cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just read that there is a storm at 174? Comments? Not for anyone south of the upper half of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe euro will give hope? I am desperate Dr No had been consistent...no phantom storms...If you are desperate then paraphrasing the late great Sam Kinison... LIVE WHERE THE SNOW IS! http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/fcst.php?zone=AKZ135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Large AK ridge building on the UKMet at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just read that there is a storm at 174? Comments? It's within 180 hrs, better start a new thread! Not for anyone south of the upper half of TN. And even here, it's borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro dull, cold with a couple chances for snow showers in the mountains later week/early weekend. Then warmer air next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 0Z Doc says go to sleep, folks, because there's no winter storm. Night night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 To think earlier we had over 160 users until the 0z GFS ran. Funny how I mentioned that the 18z looked too good to be true and then this happens (haha) but in all seriousness I'm not disappointed about it just yet. This is what I would expect with a changing pattern and it doesn't help matters that we have the next system on our hands to keep watch with the severe threat and such so models are going to struggle even harder with both the pattern and how they handle this system once before and after it departs from the Southeast, let alone the next one that potentially makes it way over here for next week. A lot of waffling with them but I'd give it another 2 or 3 days before making final judgement to what may or may not happen to that next shortwave, and even then that may not be enough waiting time since it can quickly change around 2 days. Going to be interesting to see how much more they keep going with this flipping business between nothing and something and so the wild ride continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 To think earlier we had over 160 users until the 0z GFS ran. Funny how I mentioned that the 18z looked too good to be true and then this happens (haha) but in all seriousness I'm not disappointed about it just yet. This is what I would expect with a changing pattern and it doesn't help matters that we have the next system on our hands to keep watch with the severe threat and such so models are going to struggle even harder with both the pattern and how they handle this system once before and after it departs from the Southeast, let alone the next one that potentially makes it way over here for next week. A lot of waffling with them but I'd give it another 2 or 3 days before making final judgement to what may or may not happen to that next shortwave, and even then that may not be enough waiting time since it can quickly change around 2 days. Going to be interesting to see how much more they keep going with this flipping business between nothing and something and so the wild ride continues... 1 Remember that number because that is how storms we will have this year in our neck of the woods. So enjoy the warm dry winter. And see you in the Crum Chat for that one Storm. LoL To Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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