oconeexman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Get excited friday if it still there! And that is Friday night!! Exactly, my 48hr rule i follow on these winter threats...hard lesson learned 3 years ago when i first started on these boards, and even then there's a possibility of epic fail!! I stick with Robert and his predictions is almost always the best way to roll. I take his word to heart! Try to look at it l;ike at least we have a little something to follow which is a change for the better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eric Thomas with WBTV in Charlotte pulled up the GFS model on air and showed its snow output for this storm in question. He made it clear it's the only model showin this but also said the GFS has been spot on lately and that's what they have been basing most of their forecasts on. When ET is getting on board it's time to start getting a little excited. It may not happen and 00z might crush our dreams but durn the weenie in me (never sounds right) really is jumping for joy. I guess it's just the fact that it's three runs in a row for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another thread is saying they are showing a torch. What are they showing for the 500h/850T anomalies for the NE? If they show torch for down here than so be it but if they are showing torch for NE than you really have to question there effectiveness. Euro weeklies issued today for NE US: a) 500 mb hts.: wk 1/2: below norm wk 3: above norm wk 4: slightly below norm 850 temp.'s wk 1: norm wk 2: below norm wk 3: above norm wk 4: norm Edit: for SE US: Euro weeklies issued today for SE US: a) 500 mb hts.: wk 1: below norm wk 2: norm wk 3: slightly above norm wk 4: norm 850 temp.'s wk 1: norm wk 2: norm wk 3: above norm wk 4: norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thanks! I don't consider that a torch, seems reasonable. Euro weeklies issued today for NE US: a) 500 mb hts.: wk 1/2: below norm wk 3: above norm wk 4: slightly below norm 850 temp.'s wk 1: norm wk 2: below norm wk 3: above norm wk 4: norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Exactly, my 48hr rule i follow on these winter threats...hard lesson learned 3 years ago when i first started on these boards, and even then there's a possibility of epic fail!! I stick with Robert and his predictions is almost always the best way to roll. I take his word to heart! Try to look at it l;ike at least we have a little something to follow which is a change for the better right now. Yes I try to talk to Robert once a week, great guy and knows his stuff. I hope storm verifies but if it don't life will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 When ET is getting on board it's time to start getting a little excited. It may not happen and 00z might crush our dreams but durn the weenie in me (never sounds right) really is jumping for joy. I guess it's just the fact that it's three runs in a row for me. Just remember if the 0Z is too warm or to suppressed that it's not over and dont consider that one run a dream crusher bro! Long way till Sunday and like Robert suggested earlier the GFS trend last year was to lose the storm mid range and bring it back within 2 days...(friday 0Z) while others jumped on board to confuse us more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Get excited friday if it still there! And that is Friday night!! Mr. Doubter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Get excited friday if it still there! And that is Friday night!! Heck I'll take 3 or 4 consistent runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schlontz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eric Thomas with WBTV in Charlotte pulled up the GFS model on air and showed its snow output for this storm in question. He made it clear it's the only model showin this but also said the GFS has been spot on lately and that's what they have been basing most of their forecasts on. Not to bash Eric Thomas or anything, as I grew up watching his forecasts, but I have noticed that he tends to side with the GFS more often than not when there is a threat for winter weather, even when it is an outlier. Best example I can think of is the Christmas storm last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just remember if the 0Z is too warm or to suppressed that it's not over and dont consider that one run a dream crusher bro! Long way till Sunday and like Robert suggested earlier the GFS trend last year was to lose the storm mid range and bring it back within 2 days...(friday 0Z) while others jumped on board to confuse us more. Oh yea but it'll def be a blow especially if it trends towards the Euro and the Euro holds it ground. I'm still believing but I would be much more excited if 00z comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You old goat! Guess us youngins will never learn. I was curious for something like Euro weeklies which I'm guessing come from WSI? Do you have any idea how much a package like that costs? Is it in the $5k per year range? $10k? You may not know but seems like something you might have an idea on. By the way I hope your towel gets cold and snowy. Ironically enough...Stormvista (old eastenUS history) ...I think for just individual non-commercial accounts they are not expensive but of course that is a relative term. I mean, people are willing to pay JB money. I have dealt with WSI in the past as well as almost every other vendor out there. BTW, Larry...I am just quoting what CWG sent along...as I said, I have not seen the actual weeklies and prolly won't until the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ironically enough...Stormvista (old eastenUS history) ...I think for just individual non-commercial accounts they are not expensive but of course that is a relative term. I mean, people are willing to pay JB money. I have dealt with WSI in the past as well as almost every other vendor out there. BTW, Larry...I am just quoting what CWG sent along...as I said, I have not seen the actual weeklies and prolly won't until the morning. I pay for SV I know their commercial account is around $300 per month. Wasn't sure what WSI charged though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I pay for SV I know their commercial account is around $300 per month. Wasn't sure what WSI charged though. It is best though that I bow out of this discussion on a public forum...perhaps if I ever make it to another gathering I will happily discuss over a cold one... As far as the model suites go, we make very expensive committment decisions in Day 5-10...Certainly each has its strengths and weaknesses and each has had its day, but more often than not the Euro is preferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 our local news just did. Fox 8 Van Denton said definitely had to watch it This time of the year Van becomes Brick with a microphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The NWS out of Raleigh is calling for the highs on Sunday and Monday to be near 50 F and sunny. Absolutely no mention of wintry precipitation....or any precipitation for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dom Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I pay for SV I know their commercial account is around $300 per month. Wasn't sure what WSI charged though. Demands I pay 1000 mo. but anywhere from 500,1000,1400 and up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Demands I pay 1000 mo. but anywhere from 500,1000,1400 and up Thanks I figured it was around $10k per year just wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The NWS out of Raleigh is calling for the highs on Sunday and Monday to be near 50 F and sunny. Absolutely no mention of wintry precipitation....or any precipitation for that matter. They will never publically forecast winter weather this far out, especially with the model differences. That's why they're going climo. But if you read they're afternoon long range discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MONDAY... FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE TRANSITION TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS GETS IN FULL SWING AS THE MID LEVEL VORTEX CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NC. THE POLAR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LAGS THE SURFACE FRONT BY 300-400 MILES. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SWRLY 120+ KT UPPER JET CORE TRACKING UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS... WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION PASSING OVER CENTRAL NC. MODEL TIMING DIFFERS WITH THE GFS AROUND 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. TRYING TO PICK A CLEAR WINNER AT THIS TIME RANGE WITHIN A PATTERN CHANGE AND FAST FLOW IS TOUGH... ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH AND UPPER JET PASSAGE ARE MINOR BUT THE RESULTING LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA... THUS A 12-HR TIMING DIFFERENCE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT. FAVOR A TIMING A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY DIAL BACK ITS SPEED IN UPCOMING RUNS. EXPECT A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO CROSS THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGES OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER JET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS THE COLUMN DRIES AND THE MID LEVELS STABILIZE... WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FRIDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. WIDE-RANGING LOWS FROM NEAR 30 NW TO 40 SE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN. HIGHS FRIDAY 45-53 WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 10-20 METERS BELOW NORMAL AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WSW. BRISK WNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE GREAT LAKES VORTEX LIFTS UP TO THE NE LEADING TO A WEAKENING AND FLATTER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MIDATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. PASSAGE OF ONE LAST WEAK PERTURBATION OVER VA/NC MAY BRING A SHOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN CWA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT... OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS OF 26-31. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WEAK BUT SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD... HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. THE MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT ECMWF KEEPS THIS LOW CLOSED OFF AND SLOW... HOLDING IT OFFSHORE SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING IT EAST TO OK/TX AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY MONDAY... WHILE POCKETS NORTHERN-STREAM ENERGY CONTINUE TO DROP SE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND... KEEPING US COOL AND GENERALLY DRY. IN THE OTHER CAMP IS THE MORE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANT GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION... WHICH BRINGS THIS LOW MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD... DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE OVER TX/LA AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING THIS MOISTURE AND PRECIP ENE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE SLOWER SOLUTION... WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER RECENTLY... WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST... YIELDING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND INITIALLY COOLER TEMPS MODERATING TOWARD MONDAY. HOWEVER... ANY PATTERN FEATURING CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS SOUTH AND POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING WARRANTS ATTENTION. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LESS THAN NORMAL... AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO OUR SOUTHWEST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just saw this on Frank Strait's blog on AccuWeather: 8:15 p.m. Monday: By the way, I was rushed so I didn't really have time to say the 18Z GFS solution is plausible, but if that storm is slower to cross the South as the 12Z run showed, and the Euro, then probably no snow. There's also the concern that by the time it gets to the Southeast, thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast could rob all the moisture where it's cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Frank said that it was a tn, va, Kentucky storm, and mountains. But 18z showed snow imby northern ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No, not really...guess I will always be a Euro Trash Met...Broken clock theory on this one...I think we have all seen the GFS do this before. However, if it is true, I am sure it will be the subject of discussion for the next 5 winters... I still give credit to the Euro - especially in split-flow situations. But I give more credit to anyone managing to work in "Euro trash" during a conversation. Fantastic. Eric Thomas with WBTV in Charlotte pulled up the GFS model on air and showed its snow output for this storm in question. He made it clear it's the only model showin this but also said the GFS has been spot on lately and that's what they have been basing most of their forecasts on. I'm not doubting it, but I'm curious as to what exactly the GFS has been perceived to be spot on about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 gfs ens http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf144.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I read the NWS discussion, and as they state, their confidence is low at this time for any precipitation moving in from the Gulf. This is why the public forecast is for sunny weather this weekend. I will be participating in the weekly state drought outlook meeting tomorrow, which will include a detailed discussion of the weather for the next two weeks. I'll post a brief summary of what this weekend's forecast looks like from the NWS forecasters and state climatologists who will be attending the meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 gfs ens http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf144.html I wish that L up near the Lakes wasn't there. I've seen that feature screw up the thermal profiles many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I wish that L up near the Lakes wasn't there. I've seen that feature screw up the thermal profiles many times. it showed that last year on the ensembles last year leading up to the Xmas storm also. I'm just glad most members show a deeper low/colder profile overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 it showed that last year on the ensembles last year leading up to the Xmas storm also. I'm just glad most members show a deeper low/colder profile overall I was wondering about that. I need to go back and look at the maps. I seem to remember high pressure building in....but maybe I'm thinking about another storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One thing is for certain, Canada will get very cold with this high lat. blocking thats shown on all models. It exists atleast through day 10, and most likely beyond. Sometimes (many in fact) blocking develops a strong -NAO , its just how the physics of blocking works. In my opinion, more often than not, eastern troughiness will exist. That may be cold and dry, or clipper like, but any buckling or if the southern stream throws anything our way, there could be a strong CAD event or some type of winter storm. With a tendency for an eastern Canada vortex being shown a few times, strong damming could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 In my opinion, this is a classic example of folks reading what the model is outputting without looking to see if it makes sense. Yes, the 18z GFS shows accumulating snow, but should it? In my opinion, the answer is: not really. I really don't get why some people are saying this is a classic winter storm setup with the surface high out in the Atlantic, and southerly surface winds showing up from VA to ME leading up to the event. There is no cold air feed other than the storm itself, but if you look at the sounding, the winds are southerly throughout the column for the event. If this is going to trend, all the signs are pointing to it trending warmer. A classic winter storm pattern would be last Christmas, and if you go back and compare the synoptic setup to this one, I think you'll see where I'm coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just saw this on Frank Strait's blog on AccuWeather: 8:15 p.m. Monday: By the way, I was rushed so I didn't really have time to say the 18Z GFS solution is plausible, but if that storm is slower to cross the South as the 12Z run showed, and the Euro, then probably no snow. There's also the concern that by the time it gets to the Southeast, thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast could rob all the moisture where it's cold enough for snow. Does not seem like he ever has time to stick his neck out on anything. Why in the world is he talking about storms robbing the moisture this early in the game??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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