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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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Man overboard!!!!!

So we have one person giving up already! Nice post, very rational! :P

Lol.. off one euro run too. It's been horrible this year too. Big changes from run to run. Actually since the Christmas storm last year, its been pretty poor. At least on a macro scale. I know its number one in verification.

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Good post.

Were you expecting snow and ice now? How can your fears be realized yet? The blocking hasn't formed yet.

This winter has been the most painful and warm I can remember ever. Pattern change points to the Pacific getting cold but nothing all that great for the SE. The modeled blocking continues to setup farther west than we would like, according to some very knowledgeable posters this results in a -PNA and the West getting the cold dumped on it.. Reading from many others I keep hearing about the -PNA that we are headed towards, because of the placement of the blocking is modeled to setup in. A -PNA is not going to be very friendly to the southeast. You keep mentioning how blocking almost always delivers. This type of blocking from what I'm hearing could be one of the types that does not deliver to the vast majority of the southeast. This could easily be a situation where the PAC NW and Upper Midwest gets brutally cold but the southeast just does not descend into the real cold for any extended period.

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Day 10 Euro still has the nice Pacific block, but not much else to latch on to -- cold air bottled up in far northern tier and no -NAO. Some hints of blocking near Scandanavia, but nothing clearcut. Hard not to consider the 12Z GFS an outlier after seeing Canadian and Euro. If that's the case, appears it's another two weeks before a realistic shot.

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Well the Euro wasn't too fun. It was to be expected though. On to the 18z and 00z runs.

Yep. Here's yesterdays 10 day versus todays 9 day. Valid same time. This run didnt' build much of any Scand. blocking, and looks different with the Bering Strait block. Consequently has mostly zonal flow in the US, esp. for the southern region.

post-38-0-87838800-1326136008.gif

This could easily be a situation where the PAC NW and Upper Midwest gets brutally cold but the southeast just does not descend into the real cold for any extended period.

that could be. Usually though blocking does end up providing something wintry. It may take til March. May not happen at all.

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Man overboard!!!!!

So we have one person giving up already! Nice post, very rational! :P

Lol.. off one euro run too. It's been horrible this year too. Big changes from run to run. Actually since the Christmas storm last year, its been pretty poor. At least on a macro scale. I know its number one in verification.

Yeah, I've about had it tbh. The cold and snow is always an eternity away. We finally get a pattern change to occur and all signs point to more fail. Come on guys, the board this winter has descended into a weenie wonderland. People getting excited about storms off a single OP run many days away, folks grabbing a single ensemble member and getting pumped, invocations of January 1985, March 1993, January 2000. Come on this is a weather board and half of us SE posters are so desperate for Winter weather we are not being very scientific about things.

Fact is for the vast majority of the CONUS and SE November and December were absolute torches and now January is looking to average well above normal. Heck KATL is now +3.5 for the month, yep that arctic shot has been completely erased and now w have healthy + anomalies, more warm is coming and any cold shot modeled does not stick around. This winter sucks and I'm going cliff diving. Maybe we get some freak storm in the next eight weeks but hell I'm not expecting even a dusting this year at KATL, I hope someone cashes in but this winter has finally made me snap.

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Day 10 Euro still has the nice Pacific block, but not much else to latch on to -- cold air bottled up in far northern tier and no -NAO. Some hints of blocking near Scandanavia, but nothing clearcut. Hard not to consider the 12Z GFS an outlier after seeing Canadian and Euro. If that's the case, appears it's another two weeks before a realistic shot.

Yep, we have a very strong positive anomaly centered west of Alaska, but we need help on the atlantic side.

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This winter sucks and I'm going cliff diving. Maybe we get some freak storm in the next eight weeks but hell I'm not expecting even a dusting this year at KATL, I hope someone cashes in but this winter has finally made me snap.

It's only Jan 9 for crissake, get a grip. This is not Boston, it's Georgia. We are due for a less snowy winter, but to give up now is just nutty. All it takes is one well-timed S/W, a closed low in early March, you never know. Will I be surprised if we get now real snow/ice this winter? No. However throwing in the towel this early is not very prudent, but to each his/her own.

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Yeah, I've about had it tbh. The cold and snow is always an eternity away. We finally get a pattern change to occur and all signs point to more fail. Come on guys, the board this winter has descended into a weenie wonderland. People getting excited about storms off a single OP run many days away, folks grabbing a single ensemble member and getting pumped, invocations of January 1985, March 1993, January 2000. Come on this is a weather board and half of us SE posters are so desperate for Winter weather we are not being very scientific about things.

Fact is for the vast majority of the CONUS and SE November and December were absolute torches and now January is looking to average well above normal. Heck KATL is now +3.5 for the month, yep that arctic shot has been completely erased and now w have healthy + anomalies, more warm is coming and any cold shot modeled does not stick around. This winter sucks and I'm going cliff diving. Maybe we get some freak storm in the next eight weeks but hell I'm not expecting even a dusting this year at KATL, I hope someone cashes in but this winter has finally made me snap.

But all your facts have to do with how it was, not how it is shaping up. Don't live in the past, what's happened has happened. Things are looking VERY positive, just gotta keep the faith. We're a LONG way from over for the winter. It's completely expected for the models to be all over the place right now. It might even be a couple of weeks before they finally decide to settle down. In the mean time, most anything can happen and not necessarily get caught by the models until the time gets very close. You watch, at some point the models will be playing catch up with a big system heading our way, something they didn't spot 7 days in advance.

I'm loving this right now. I love the fact that NO ONE has a grasp on the future, not even the wisest of mets (OK, except for Robert and our SE mets! ;) ) seems to be able to say one way or the other what's coming up, it's what makes things so interesting. It would be different if we knew it was going to be cold and dry, or if we were going to be a torch, or we had snow on the way. That actually gets boring in a lot of ways (except for the snow part). So I'd rather be heading into the unknown with open eyes, expecting the unexpected and holding on to the hope of winter weather in my backyard.

"Hope is tenacious. It goes on living and working when science has dealt it what should be its deathblow."

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Do I think it's silly that people are excited over one run? Not really given this winter. What keeps me hopefully is that even the recent blast of cold air the models really didn't pick up on it till around 3 - 4 days out IIRC and they kept flipping until around 2 days out (again IIRC). So now we go to a pattern change with a lot involved...anything is on the table from cold and dry, to stormy to just seasonal.

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OK, my crocus and daffodils are coming up, the grass is getting greener and I have not seen a junco this past week. The blasted robins are starting to make an increased comeback, too. If I don't get a crushing ice storm or at least two feet of snow, I am going to officially call winter over in my back yard! :lmao:

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It's only Jan 9 for crissake, get a grip. This is not Boston, it's Georgia. We are due for a less snowy winter, but to give up now is just nutty. All it takes is one well-timed S/W, a closed low in early March, you never know. Will I be surprised if we get now real snow/ice this winter? No. However throwing in the towel this early is not very prudent, but to each his/her own.

this is reality guys. I totally agree with you Cheez. I want winter as much as anyone but this is REALITY.
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Including the OP there are 6 members that have snow in the SE. That's 50%. Would like to see the individual Euro ensembles, which I don't have access to, but we will be able to see something from the mean.

Same here, I could pull 4 or 5 from the 0 and 6z runs with an interesting look, 6z op maybe a little slower compared to the ens consensus. Based on the 12z mean @ 156, I would bet there are a half dozen members giving someone S of the VA boarder love.

12zgfsensemblep12156.gif

Don't like that pesky low north of the Great Lakes though

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Do I think it's silly that people are excited over one run? Not really given this winter. What keeps me hopefully is that even the recent blast of cold air the models really didn't pick up on it till around 3 - 4 days out IIRC and they kept flipping until around 2 days out (again IIRC). So now we go to a pattern change with a lot involved...anything is on the table from cold and dry, to stormy to just seasonal.

Of course it isnt silly, we're all looking for something, as small as it may be, to get our hopes up. I've always thought the best storms weren't the ones that you track for 10 days, even though they are a great deal of fun, but rather the ones that the models dont pick upon until about 48 hours or less... those are truly exciting. In this day and age with how far technology has come it's really rare we get a storm that surprises us anymore, maybe, just maybe, this year we'll get one.

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Yeah, I've about had it tbh. The cold and snow is always an eternity away. We finally get a pattern change to occur and all signs point to more fail. Come on guys, the board this winter has descended into a weenie wonderland. People getting excited about storms off a single OP run many days away, folks grabbing a single ensemble member and getting pumped, invocations of January 1985, March 1993, January 2000. Come on this is a weather board and half of us SE posters are so desperate for Winter weather we are not being very scientific about things.

Fact is for the vast majority of the CONUS and SE November and December were absolute torches and now January is looking to average well above normal. Heck KATL is now +3.5 for the month, yep that arctic shot has been completely erased and now w have healthy + anomalies, more warm is coming and any cold shot modeled does not stick around. This winter sucks and I'm going cliff diving. Maybe we get some freak storm in the next eight weeks but hell I'm not expecting even a dusting this year at KATL, I hope someone cashes in but this winter has finally made me snap.

This is from last month, but it's interesting because it states that the first average snowfall for KATL isn't until Jan 17th! SomethingI wasn't aware of until I read this last month. So if you think about it, our snow chances are just beginning around here. Anything before that or could have fallen before that date this winter would have been bonus anyway. It's like Cheeznado said, it only takes one to get us to or above average for the year. We still got two solid months to pull something out of what has been a bleak winter so far and i believe it will happen whether it's now in January, somewhere in between February, or later on in March.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=wintercountdown

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Including the OP there are 6 members that have snow in the SE. That's 50%. Would like to see the individual Euro ensembles, which I don't have access to, but we will be able to see something from the mean.

Interestingly enough the GFS keeps wanting to give us winter storms with a low up in the Great Lakes/Michigan area. That keeps popping up with fantasy storms. Not really directing this at you packbacker more at Chris but it's still odd.

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Interestingly enough the GFS keeps wanting to give us winter storms with a low up in the Great Lakes/Michigan area. That keeps popping up with fantasy storms. Not really directing this at you packbacker more at Chris but it's still odd.

Well I am surprised too, the GFS had this idea a few days ago, lost it and now is trying to bring it back, the Euro has never had it, my money would be on the Euro too, but the GFS has it's moments too. But I definitely wouldn't say that GFS doesn't have ensemble support, it doesn't have other model support, but I would like to see the Euro individual members.

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Well I am surprised too, the GFS had this idea a few days ago, lost it and now is trying to bring it back, the Euro has never had it, my money would be on the Euro too, but the GFS has it's moments too. But I definitely wouldn't say that GFS doesn't have ensemble support, it doesn't have other model support, but I would like to see the Euro individual members.

Well what I meant is throughout this winter when there have been fantasy storms often it brings a low up there which is not inductive at all for winter storms for the SE. It's just odd how it keeps wanting to place a low there. In fact it showed practically the same set up one run for Christmas just last month.

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Well what I meant is throughout this winter when there have been fantasy storms often it brings a low up there which is not inductive at all for winter storms for the SE. It's just odd how it keeps wanting to place a low there. In fact it showed practically the same set up one run for Christmas just last month.

Ah, I see what you mean, I think this one could be realized, we just need the low out on the west coast to get ejected at the right time, probably won't happen, but it's not a 0% chance. We have other things working against too, with the HP sliding east.

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Yeah, I've about had it tbh. The cold and snow is always an eternity away. We finally get a pattern change to occur and all signs point to more fail. Come on guys, the board this winter has descended into a weenie wonderland. People getting excited about storms off a single OP run many days away, folks grabbing a single ensemble member and getting pumped, invocations of January 1985, March 1993, January 2000. Come on this is a weather board and half of us SE posters are so desperate for Winter weather we are not being very scientific about things.

Fact is for the vast majority of the CONUS and SE November and December were absolute torches and now January is looking to average well above normal. Heck KATL is now +3.5 for the month, yep that arctic shot has been completely erased and now w have healthy + anomalies, more warm is coming and any cold shot modeled does not stick around. This winter sucks and I'm going cliff diving. Maybe we get some freak storm in the next eight weeks but hell I'm not expecting even a dusting this year at KATL, I hope someone cashes in but this winter has finally made me snap.

Now this is good!! Snapping is the first step to enjoying winter in the south, particularly the Atl. area. When you have experienced enough of them, you'll come to understand that nothing is written. Ever. YOu are in the south of the south, lol. The best patterns most likely will give you nothing, and the worst can sometimes give you everything. Best to crack up, give up, and drool :) That is often when the south will give you something to remember.

In your case it might be a horrific zrain though, if we get the gulf energized with only borderline cold. And after living though 73 in Atl. I will enjoy hearing about if you liked it, or not :) One side of me looks back in wonder at the power of it...it's anomolous majesty. The sheer enormity of it. The rest of me hated every minute of it. Hated the fear, the destruction, the hardship. For sheer power it ranks with the Blizzard, but I wouldn't like to see another any more than I'd like a EF3 tornado to hit me.

But you can't control any of it, so it is best to crack up and drool :) I've been doing it for years! The only other method for enduring the frustration of winter in the south of the south, is Larry's Ice Cream Zen method, but only Larry can tell you if you are a good candidate. I will personally vouch for your being ready for the give up and drool school, lol. Tony

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I have Been at school and just skimming through, is there any realistic chance of snow anytime some in the se? Preferably northern Georgia?

Right now in the mid range probably 5% chance I would say. We have two runs of the GFS hinting at something and every other model is saying NO. 00z runs should be telling.

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It's only Jan 9 for crissake, get a grip. This is not Boston, it's Georgia. We are due for a less snowy winter, but to give up now is just nutty. All it takes is one well-timed S/W, a closed low in early March, you never know. Will I be surprised if we get now real snow/ice this winter? No. However throwing in the towel this early is not very prudent, but to each his/her own.

Cliff divers...one of the most short lived species on the planet. As sure as death and taxes, they will be back on board with 3 good runs.

It is of course my opinion, but the following link is a well done breakdown of the current mid/long range predicament (per Andy Wood - written in the wee hours this morning):

http://www.foxcaroli...-the-north-pole

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Cliff divers...one of the most short lived species on the planet. As sure as death and taxes, they will be back on board with 3 good runs.

It is of course my opinion, but the following link is a well done breakdown of the current mid/long range predicament (per Andy Wood - written in the wee hours this morning):

http://www.foxcaroli...-the-north-pole

Sounds like the models can't be relied on at all for anything beyond 5 days right now. I guess if we have a real shot at anything, it wouldn't show up until within 5 days on the models.

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This is an EXCELLENT synopsis. I would encourage everyone to read it. Still waiting on the ECWMF ensembles to come in.

Edit: The Ensembles are in and they look very similar to yesterday. We must be patient. Patience is a virtue ;)

Cliff divers...one of the most short lived species on the planet. As sure as death and taxes, they will be back on board with 3 good runs.

It is of course my opinion, but the following link is a well done breakdown of the current mid/long range predicament (per Andy Wood - written in the wee hours this morning):

http://www.foxcaroli...-the-north-pole

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