ams30721us Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Does the gfs show any chance of snow for north ga? Yes the 12z GFS does but it is on an island so don't mark it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i liked seeing how every few days there are atleast rain events.. but looks to be to warm in mby @ the moment but thats usely the case either cold and dry or not really that cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 When I hear Cold Air Damming, I hear Fr Rn which is not something we should hope for IMO. While it is a winter feature, it is not something that is good for the roads, trees, power lines etc... that we all depend on. I would rather have 65 and rain than 30 and fr rn but I am sure some enjoy the kind of mess that is created by a zr scenario. To paraphrase a great American "Give me snow or give me... anything but zr" this is something we havent really been able to talk about much since about 2005 due to the lack of cad events. however, since its popping up again might as well go ahead and put this out there. yes freezing rain can be bad and can be damaging. however, just like with snow, hurricanes, severe etc we cannot control the weather. be prepared - if an ice storm does materialize, there are quite a few here (myself included) who WOULD much rather have ice over plain rain. any winter wx is preferencial to a cold rain lol. while granted i do not want 1.5" of ice IMBY, i cant control whether or not it happens. and if/when a big ice storm hits, they are a wonder to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 this is something we havent really been able to talk about much since about 2005 due to the lack of cad events. however, since its popping up again might as well go ahead and put this out there. yes freezing rain can be bad and can be damaging. however, just like with snow, hurricanes, severe etc we cannot control the weather. be prepared - if an ice storm does materialize, there are quite a few here (myself included) who WOULD much rather have ice over plain rain. any winter wx is preferencial to a cold rain lol. while granted i do not want 1.5" of ice IMBY, i cant control whether or not it happens. and if/when a big ice storm hits, they are a wonder to experience. I'll take a major ice storm, they do cause damage but their beauty is awe inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll take a major ice storm, they do cause damage but their beauty is awe inspiring. Agree, I'll take anything freezing/frozen over rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The reason the ensembles of GFS are all over the place is the same reason the ensembles are changing a lot lately, and that is the pattern is changing. Of course each member will be vastly different, and maybe different the very next run. Its a well established fact that blocks + pattern changes are notoriously hard. All the studies I read about them mentioned how the equations can't handle the potential vorticity associated with them, but once they're in place, they get accounted for much better. When you boil it all down though, it still very much appears that a block, and possibly 2, will be in existence within the next 7 days. If you make an assumption on that point, which is a safe bet on atleast one of the blocks, then you have to go back and use climo and educate yourself of past blocking regimes, locations and sensible impacts. Almost all, but not quite all, major Bering Strait blocks have provided active and cold weather in the Southeast and eastern states. When double blocking existed simultaneously, almost always this had the effect of a major winter event somewhere on the East Coast. Not quite all. But the odds are heavily stacked that significant winter weather arrives either during the mature phase of the blocking or within a month of it's decay. I think folks are getting to the point where they live and die by model runs and close calls and expect the models to accurate show an opening shortwave in western Texas when there's a 1040 high in the Lakes. They can hardly do that yet at this time frame.Pattern recognition and climo goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess things are getting interesting at least, but still doesn't look like any decent snow chances around here. Either wet and too warm, or cold but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GFS is bringing an excellent classic case of Southeast/Tenn Valley /Carolina Winter storms , beginning late this week. It may be not deep enough on the first trough Thur-Saturday, the ecm was much deeper and slower/colder. But the 6z GFS also trended this way by not burying the sw low too far out, and shooting up a Pac. NW ridge which helps to send energy down the rockies and captures the sw Baja system. Not sure which way to go with this, but if the GFS is right, then overunning snow and ice would spread quickly across the Red River/North Texas, then east across northern Miss/Ark and into Tn pretty quickly. There is a good cold airmass thats deep on both sides, and gets reinforced thanks to the Alaskan vortex dropping south, which dislodges the cold in Canada. Around 144 hour it begins to develop the sw system too strongly and brings in warmer air aloft in teh Southeast. i should have known something was up this morning when i got to this thread and saw how many pages it had expanded. this is more like it lol like the others, i agree that the set up is looking much much better, that lovely blue line is close to a lot of n ga and the upstate and a lot of us, with moisture moving in. i really hope in the next few days we start seeing things trending in our favor for a change, instead of warmer or drier etc. this is the first time this winter that i have seen a map that is not 10 days out that looks pretty decent. guess we should get as much work done as possible while we can lol. if this ends up showing up and looking good i imagine my board time will soon increase exponentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll take a major ice storm, they do cause damage but their beauty is awe inspiring. I agree that's about the only thing nice about them. Where I live there are too many tall century old trees around my house and given that the houses in my neighborhood are built so close together and given the drought conditions the past several months it wouldn't take much to cause some serious damage. We got lucky during that March 2008 tornado, the trees in our backyard managed to fall in the opposite direction of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Seems to be Wxboard nature to always run across the famous analogs...Mar 93, Jan 85, Jan 00...etc etc...Be nice some day to be able to say: "Looks like Jan 11...." and everyone has a reminiscent sigh... In answer to your question, there is a tendency with the westward drift of the Alaskan ridge that we will have a -PNA pattern in the west which the longer range part of the Euro ensemble means have been showing...this would likely lead to more ridging over the SE were it to verify or at the very least more zonal flow across CONUS ...It would still promote cold air for PNW, plains, GL and creeping possiblybinto New England...we would get fropa from time to time so it would not necessarily torch but it would not be all that favorable for more sustained cold or the frozen variety of precip... It is the challenge that many saw with the pattern change that was expected during mid January...it might not necessarily change into something that would make everyone happy. Obviously with the turmoil in the outlying days in the ensembles, it is still speculative... Exactly what usually happens when that AK block retrogrades. About the only way to get around that is to get decent upstream blocking(- NAO/50-50 Low ) . A strong se Canada LP/PV can do the trick as well. You could just about lump that in with upstream blocking anyway, as it many times leads to a -NAO. Of course, another possibility is if that AK block hooks up with a Scandinavian block as some panels have suggested, then vortex is shoved south as HP engulfs the entire arctic regions down into northern Canada. Then the PV pumps up heights toward Greenland/eastern canada. In this scenario, however, you can have sometimes have a "gap" between the HP to the north and the one pulling up from the south, leaving a split in the -NAO and a possible lane or escape route for the PV. So, quite possibly a short lived -NAO would be the outcome. There also is the possibility with this scenario of a -NAO buiding on down along with the southward shifting PV and cutting off,or a developing ridge just hooking up to it on the eastern side of the PV . The next few days will be the tell tale, as we should get a handle on evolution and progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I was referring to foothills post about extreme weather when double blocking occurs and one of his examples was Feb '93, month before that extreme weather event. Superstorm Blizzard of 1993, which nothing suggests would happen and nobody is suggesting would occur. Really pointless to even talk about that in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nice healthy looking clipper at 120 around eastern Nb, Mo. region. Looks like cold re-inforcements. The cutoff west of the Baja has another cutoff right behind it so, if we can get a southern stream going it would get interesting. So many variables and things on the move, its tough to forecast about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As expected the new Op Euro is massively different than the Op GFS- the final coffin nail in the latter as far as I am concerned. Looks cold and dry through at least the coming weekend with a NW flow. The next closed low stays well off the Baja coastline through 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looking better for blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That Dr. Larry, is as sure an example of "Ice Cream Brain Freeze" as could be found, lol. I have warned you about potential ICBF, and now....well...... Glad to see you posting about short range stuff. You interest must be piqued! And it is getting into the Jan. wheel house for zrain, right? Tony Yes, indeed: Major ATL ZR's since 1879: <12/1: 0 12/1-10: 0 12/11-20: 2 12/21-31: 4 1/1-10: 5 1/11-20: 3 1/21-31: 8 2/1-10: 4 2/11-20: 0 2/21-29: 0 3/1-10: 2 3/11-20: 0 3/21-31: 1 4/1+: 0 It appears that the current winter will likely verify as a weak La Nina. The three weak La Nina ATL major ZR's were on these dates: 12/24-5, 12/24-5, and 1/9-10. The prospects for a major ATL ZR would be much higher if this were to be a neutral negative ENSO since a whopping 46% of neutral negative ENSO winters (12 of 26) had a major ZR!! Only 13% of weak La Nina winters have had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So the ecmwf has a clipper (an additional s/w ) the GFS doesn't. Not much moisture usually associated with those, but a few flakes are showing up at 132 in Ky and Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 enormous differences at 144 between the Op. models. It would be nice to get some agreement at only 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And even this one looks promising for next Wednesday as far as blocking goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the Baja system opens up slowly at 156 but the cold air is vacating. Worlds different than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The reason the ensembles of GFS are all over the place is the same reason the ensembles are changing a lot lately, and that is the pattern is changing. Of course each member will be vastly different, and maybe different the very next run. Its a well established fact that blocks + pattern changes are notoriously hard. All the studies I read about them mentioned how the equations can't handle the potential vorticity associated with them, but once they're in place, they get accounted for much better. When you boil it all down though, it still very much appears that a block, and possibly 2, will be in existence within the next 7 days. If you make an assumption on that point, which is a safe bet on atleast one of the blocks, then you have to go back and use climo and educate yourself of past blocking regimes, locations and sensible impacts. Almost all, but not quite all, major Bering Strait blocks have provided active and cold weather in the Southeast and eastern states. When double blocking existed simultaneously, almost always this had the effect of a major winter event somewhere on the East Coast. Not quite all. But the odds are heavily stacked that significant winter weather arrives either during the mature phase of the blocking or within a month of it's decay. I think folks are getting to the point where they live and die by model runs and close calls and expect the models to accurate show an opening shortwave in western Texas when there's a 1040 high in the Lakes. They can hardly do that yet at this time frame.Pattern recognition and climo goes a long way. Very good post and deserves a repost via a quote. A lot of people are getting caught up in models and the frenzy associated especially with this 12z GFS... I saw on twitter and facebook DT going crazy over the 12z even though ensembles are constantly changing not to mention OP runs, especially between the GFS and the Euro which have been more different from each other than any two models I believe such as the GFS/CMC...which I've seen comparable runs. Every night that I stay up for the Euro I'm shocked at how different it is. I'd like more consitancy 6 days out that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well, now that we can pretty much ignore the 12Z op GFS, what is in store farther down the road? The Euro has consistently shown a massive Bering Sea block but no blocking in the Greenland area. This will assure than the NW and NC states will see bitter cold- but for the SE I think we will have to wait and see if this Arctic air eventually dumps down over most of the CONUS or be confined to the northern tier. In any event those hoping for a significant snow/ice event in the SE any hope will likely have to wait for a couple of weeks at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The guidance will struggle with these 5H lows right up until 24 hours out. A great example is what is happening today in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Sounds like the models can't be depended on anything. They are all over the place. No wonder we don't really have any idea when it comes to snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well, now that we can pretty much ignore the 12Z op GFS, what is in store farther down the road? The Euro has consistently shown a massive Bering Sea block but no blocking in the Greenland area. This will assure than the NW and NC states will see bitter cold- but for the SE I think we will have to wait and see if this Arctic air eventually dumps down over most of the CONUS or be confined to the northern tier. In any event those hoping for a significant snow/ice event in the SE any hope will likely have to wait for a couple of weeks at the least. I've been fearing that the pattern change we have been moving towards would not bring widespread snow and ice to the SE. Looks like my fears may have been realized. Nice post, very rational, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 this run looks zonal with cold in the northern third of the US atleast through 192 hours. A nice southern wave at 198 with rain, the cold is too far north. The ecmwf handles eastern Canada differently , who knows which is right yet. There's cold pressing down after the Gulf wave. The PAC nw could have a major winter storm even to Seattle and Portland with the strong arctic HP to the north and east winds, with moisture coming off the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'll take a major ice storm, they do cause damage but their beauty is awe inspiring. No thanks! While they look nice, that's only when there isn't enough on the tress to start breaking them left and right. Don't need the power out and the roads to be too dangerous to drive on. Rather it rain than be a bunch of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I've been fearing that the pattern change we have been moving towards would not bring widespread snow and ice to the SE. Looks like my fears may have been realized. Nice post, very rational, thank you. Sounds like rain when we do have precip and just dry when we have the cold enough for snow. This winter looks like it's going down as a real dud as far as snow goes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The cold air is finally starting to sag south at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Exactly what usually happens when that AK block retrogrades. About the only way to get around that is to get decent upstream blocking(- NAO/50-50 Low ) . A strong se Canada LP/PV can do the trick as well. You could just about lump that in with upstream blocking anyway, as it many times leads to a -NAO. Of course, another possibility is if that AK block hooks up with a Scandinavian block as some panels have suggested, then vortex is shoved south as HP engulfs the entire arctic regions down into northern Canada. Then the PV pumps up heights toward Greenland/eastern canada. In this scenario, however, you can have sometimes have a "gap" between the HP to the north and the one pulling up from the south, leaving a split in the -NAO and a possible lane or escape route for the PV. So, quite possibly a short lived -NAO would be the outcome. There also is the possibility with this scenario of a -NAO buiding on down along with the southward shifting PV and cutting off,or a developing ridge just hooking up to it on the eastern side of the PV . The next few days will be the tell tale, as we should get a handle on evolution and progression. Good post. I've been fearing that the pattern change we have been moving towards would not bring widespread snow and ice to the SE. Looks like my fears may have been realized. Nice post, very rational, thank you. Were you expecting snow and ice now? How can your fears be realized yet? The blocking hasn't formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I've been fearing that the pattern change we have been moving towards would not bring widespread snow and ice to the SE. Looks like my fears may have been realized. Nice post, very rational, thank you. Man overboard!!!!! So we have one person giving up already! Nice post, very rational! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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