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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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Sounds like the models can't be relied on at all for anything beyond 5 days right now. I guess if we have a real shot at anything, it wouldn't show up until withing 5 days on the models.

...and 5 days is pushing it with these particular changes about to occur. Should have a better handle by this weekend about the upcoming final 15 days of the month.

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FWIW- Henry M. (accuweather's Big Daddy) on late month pattern.

The last half of January will get cold across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. Intrusions of warmth into these areas will be few and far between, so more prolonged cold will be featured. The West and southern Plains into the South will remain on the warm side with some intrusions of cold weather but will last just a day or two.

The bulk of the snow will fall north of Omaha to Indianapolis to New York City, basically north of I-70/80. Significant snow will hit New England and New York into Maine.

Go on to say the east will have to wait until Feb-March!

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This is an EXCELLENT synopsis. I would encourage everyone to read it. Still waiting on the ECWMF ensembles to come in.

Edit: The Ensembles are in and they look very similar to yesterday. We must be patient. Patience is a virtue ;)

Yep very informative. Andy Wood always writes some great stuff for his viewers. Thanks for the update on the Ensembles.

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FWIW- Henry M. (accuweather's Big Daddy) on late month pattern.

The last half of January will get cold across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. Intrusions of warmth into these areas will be few and far between, so more prolonged cold will be featured. The West and southern Plains into the South will remain on the warm side with some intrusions of cold weather but will last just a day or two.

The bulk of the snow will fall north of Omaha to Indianapolis to New York City, basically north of I-70/80. Significant snow will hit New England and New York into Maine.

Go on to say the east will have to wait until Feb-March!

Similar to what Matthew (msuwx) said on his update.

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FWIW- Henry M. (accuweather's Big Daddy) on late month pattern.

The last half of January will get cold across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. Intrusions of warmth into these areas will be few and far between, so more prolonged cold will be featured. The West and southern Plains into the South will remain on the warm side with some intrusions of cold weather but will last just a day or two.

The bulk of the snow will fall north of Omaha to Indianapolis to New York City, basically north of I-70/80. Significant snow will hit New England and New York into Maine.

Go on to say the east will have to wait until Feb-March!

Usually his outlooks and 1.00 will get you an "any size" coffee at MCD's. I always feel better for some reason when he's NOT giving ice/snow chances in the southeast. JMO

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Usually his outlooks and 1.00 will get you an "any size" coffee at MCD's. I always feel better for some reason when he's NOT giving ice/snow chances in the southeast. JMO

Yep some of his maps last year were just atrocious. He may be right be jeez given his past history he gives no reason to believe it.

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Yeah, I've about had it tbh. The cold and snow is always an eternity away. We finally get a pattern change to occur and all signs point to more fail. Come on guys, the board this winter has descended into a weenie wonderland. People getting excited about storms off a single OP run many days away, folks grabbing a single ensemble member and getting pumped, invocations of January 1985, March 1993, January 2000. Come on this is a weather board and half of us SE posters are so desperate for Winter weather we are not being very scientific about things.

Fact is for the vast majority of the CONUS and SE November and December were absolute torches and now January is looking to average well above normal. Heck KATL is now +3.5 for the month, yep that arctic shot has been completely erased and now w have healthy + anomalies, more warm is coming and any cold shot modeled does not stick around. This winter sucks and I'm going cliff diving. Maybe we get some freak storm in the next eight weeks but hell I'm not expecting even a dusting this year at KATL, I hope someone cashes in but this winter has finally made me snap.

May I suggest stone mountain?

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Looks like Michelle and T are going to need to buy a boat with this solution.

I have my floaties ready :lol:

Everyone calm down- the latest Op GFS is very likely to be spectacularly wrong. It is a huge outlier from its own ensembles, and is completely different than the CMC, UKMet, Euro and Euro ensembles. I suspect strongly the new Euro will be totally different as well. Looks cold and dry to me after the current rain system.

Don't crush my hope for fantasy rain :P

Yes, indeed:

Major ATL ZR's since 1879:

<12/1: 0

12/1-10: 0

12/11-20: 2

12/21-31: 4

1/1-10: 5

1/11-20: 3

1/21-31: 8

2/1-10: 4

2/11-20: 0

2/21-29: 0

3/1-10: 2

3/11-20: 0

3/21-31: 1

4/1+: 0

It appears that the current winter will likely verify as a weak La Nina. The three weak La Nina ATL major ZR's were on these dates: 12/24-5, 12/24-5, and 1/9-10.

The prospects for a major ATL ZR would be much higher if this were to be a neutral negative ENSO since a whopping 46% of neutral negative ENSO winters (12 of 26) had a major ZR!! Only 13% of weak La Nina winters have had one.

Thanks for the stats Larry :hug:

The guidance will struggle with these 5H lows right up until 24 hours out. A great example is what is happening today in Texas. ;)

I agree 100% :wub:

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Except the DGEX... scarier thought.

:lol:

When was the last time the DGEX scored a coup? Serious does anyone remember even once?

Feb 2010 for me...it was the only time I have ever known the DGEX to get it correct. The amounts differed, but it never, not once lost the storm. A blind squirrel finds his nut every once in awhile :wub:

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Huh did I miss something? This morning he liked the outlook of a colder mid Jan to late Jan and was leaning towards a more favorable pattern for us in the SE...could of misheard though as I was working while his video was playing.

You have not misheard. After watching the video, I did hear him state that the cold could remain more to our north and that was within the realm of possibility but leans toward the colder scenario and that he would rather see these nice shots of cold air and giving us opportunities for potential wintry precipitation and possibly CAD events instead of a pattern that yields cold but dry.

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Hey guys. Yeah, my thinking remains the same as on the video this morning. Watch between about the 4:45 and 7:00 mark.

I am favoring the more sustained cold remaining over the northern roughly half of the country as the most likely scenario. But I expect occasional shots of arctic air into the Southeast. And yes, I also stated that the overall patten doesn't look too bad for those looking for wintry weather chances down the road. You don't want cold and dry to overwhelm the pattern. Something like this, with a vast supply of cold air close by, is not a bad look.

Monster highs will likely move from the northern Plains into the Northeast, giving us at least a shot of some CAD scenarios.

But if we do wind up seeing the NAO tank, then that is when you could get ugly cold into our region.

But these are challenging forecast times, and any and all forecast ideas must be subject to alteration or trashing altogether.

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Sounds like the models can't be relied on at all for anything beyond 5 days right now. I guess if we have a real shot at anything, it wouldn't show up until within 5 days on the models.

"Models" being the key word here - I believe is the point. A model, at the end of the day, is just that. A model. Specific features within those models will change, just as any model does in the building process. What needs to be recognized in our current circumstance is not so much specific events (i.e. rn/zr/dry etc), but patterns and trends. The reality is that until it gets to the point where radar watching becomes an available way to be slightly more precise, models really can't give you more than a broad idea based on data. Therefore, model watching is a part of the process. It seems too many of us live and die in 6 hour increments using information that changes constantly (and is one of the most common reason cliff diving occurs). When discussing mid/long range possibilities, it's a very large picture to try and understand, and the GFS/Euro etc. cannot give us everything we need to make those conclusions. That's why I thought that Andy's write up was important. Robert and others have been saying this for a while now, which seems to get lost in the discussion quite often (usually when something keeps being repeated, it's because it isn't being heard).

Again - this is only my opinion. Personally, with the chaos/change happening, I wouldn't forecast this winter with Robert's mouth - and I'm glad I don't have to. ^_^

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Hey guys. Yeah, my thinking remains the same as on the video this morning. Watch between about the 4:45 and 7:00 mark.

I am favoring the more sustained cold remaining over the northern roughly half of the country as the most likely scenario. But I expect occasional shots of arctic air into the Southeast. And yes, I also stated that the overall patten doesn't look too bad for those looking for wintry weather chances down the road. You don't want cold and dry to overwhelm the pattern. Something like this, with a vast supply of cold air close by, is not a bad look.

Monster highs will likely move from the northern Plains into the Northeast, giving us at least a shot of some CAD scenarios.

But if we do wind up seeing the NAO tank, then that is when you could get ugly cold into our region.

But these are challenging forecast times, and any and all forecast ideas must be subject to alteration or trashing altogether.

Thanks for clarifying Matt!

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Hey guys. Yeah, my thinking remains the same as on the video this morning. Watch between about the 4:45 and 7:00 mark.

I am favoring the more sustained cold remaining over the northern roughly half of the country as the most likely scenario. But I expect occasional shots of arctic air into the Southeast. And yes, I also stated that the overall patten doesn't look too bad for those looking for wintry weather chances down the road. You don't want cold and dry to overwhelm the pattern. Something like this, with a vast supply of cold air close by, is not a bad look.

Monster highs will likely move from the northern Plains into the Northeast, giving us at least a shot of some CAD scenarios.

But if we do wind up seeing the NAO tank, then that is when you could get ugly cold into our region.

But these are challenging forecast times, and any and all forecast ideas must be subject to alteration or trashing altogether.

Great video Matthew :wub: I agree with the bolded :hug:

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