Powerball Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The latest run of the GFS falls somewhere between the 06z run and the 12z run. Congrats to Chicago this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The latest run of the GFS falls somewhere between the 06z run and the 12z run. Congrats to Chicago this run. I think I'll like that run. Makes me a little nervous since it's still a couple of days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think I'll like that run. Makes me a little nervous since it's still a couple of days away... The only thing that is guaranteed is the track will shift alot over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Sparty and yourself have made assertions like these a couple of times now. I still haven't seen much (or any) evidence of it though. It's mostly lamenting the pattern that we're in, which is 100% acceptable and understandable. Nobody is saying winter is never going to come. Its one thing to lament the pattern we are in (trust me I hate this pattern as much as anybody, seeing grass 10 days before Christmas is NOT how Id dream things up lol), but there are plenty of posts implying doom for the winter, below normal snowfall, etc etc. Im not going to call out anyone nor do I want to go back to find or quote said posts, but there have been several. We've had so many snowy winters lately that I think people seem to think mild and/or snowless starts to winter are so taboo, when unfortunately if you look back over decades of data, they arent at all (of course, the near unanimously cold/snowy winter forecasts of this year are no help in the matter). Now whether these posts are serious or tongue-in-cheek, that could be where some confusion is, its always hard to read between the lines when you are reading words on a screen, not hearing the person talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Clipper is looking a little more healthy when it passes through WI around 2 days from now, just need it to come a bit more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 2006-2007 had the epic lake effect snow. This season so far has not. Yeah, but it didnt start until mid-January LOL, a full month later than we are now. I wouldnt like to see a repeat of 2006-07, but Ill tell you, Ive never before seen a winter in SE MI with so much LES and so little synoptic snow. After setting a record for earliest measurable snow (0.2") on Oct 12, 2006, 0.1" fell Nov 2nd and 2.4" the first few days of December, then not a flake of snow fell from I believe Dec 8th to Jan 7th. It was extremely mild (much more mild than this Dec), and winter didnt really start til mid-Jan, hitting hard in early and mid Feb with powerful arctic fronts and one good snowstorm, Feb 13/14, where 8.5" fell with temps near 10F the whole storm, the only significant snowfall in a winter of frequent pennies and nickels. The April cold snap which canceled a Tigers game and gave us a white Easter was one of the longest streaks below 40F on record for April. Winter total snow was 30.3" at DTW and 36.3" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I agree I see it every year as well with the winter cancel garbage. You cannot deny the fact that business in parts of MI, WI, ONT and MN are hurting from this and yes at least a quarter of the season is gone... yes I said it! go tell business owners up in the north woods that rely on snowfall that its not winter yet! lol. I never used DTW as an example so stop bring that up... I actually stated that we were doing decent at this point so chances of hitting average was pretty decent. A similar season of 2006/2007 We were well below normal. So saying that 70-75% of the MW will be below average is not that outrages. Stop pretending that this is normal. I am not denying that business up north is hurting at the moment, as I said they face the big uphill climb and its a shame because they have not done well the last several winters either. However, "at least a quarter of the season is gone", ha you can say whatever you want but that is 100% untrue. You are the one who needs to stop pretending, I never said this was normal. Snowmobile season in the northcountry officially starts December 1st every year, and ski resorts usually like to try and open around Thanksgiving. So by my calculation, if this season is already over a quarter over, then this means that the season ends in late January. Gotcha! Thanks for telling me about climatology (hint hint, the peak snow depths in the north country hit between mid-February and mid-March, NEVER before February). And yeah, this season is not at all similar to 2006-07 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I am not denying that business up north is hurting at the moment, as I said they face the big uphill climb and its a shame because they have not done well the last several winters either. However, "at least a quarter of the season is gone", ha you can say whatever you want but that is 100% untrue. You are the one who needs to stop pretending, I never said this was normal. Snowmobile season in the northcountry officially starts December 1st every year, and ski resorts usually like to try and open around Thanksgiving. So by my calculation, if this season is already over a quarter over, then this means that the season ends in late January. Gotcha! Thanks for telling me about climatology (hint hint, the peak snow depths in the north country hit between mid-February and mid-March, NEVER before February). And yeah, this season is not at all similar to 2006-07 lol. It really is true here in northern MN. anyways. We should have 24" by now and average for a season is around 85" so that's easily over a quarter of the way. I'm not sure if you are talking about Michigan northwoods or Wisconsin or Minnesota for that matter. They are all northwoods as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about Michigan or Wisconsin snowfalls totals yet either so I can't say your statement is true or not regarding those other states. But for MN you would be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It really is true here in northern MN. anyways. We should have 24" by now and average for a season is around 85" so that's easily over a quarter of the way. I'm not sure if you are talking about Michigan northwoods or Wisconsin or Minnesota for that matter. They are all northwoods as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about Michigan or Wisconsin snowfalls totals yet either so I can't say your statement is true or not regarding those other states. But for MN you would be wrong. I was discussing the economic aspect of the season (ie snow sports, etc). As said snowmobiling season officially starts December 1st. Yes, while it certainly should start snowing periodically before Halloween, the winter rec season doesnt really kick in til around Thanksgiving, and it lasts to April. Snowfall totals are definitely in a bind up north, and since such a large amount of snow does typically fall early, even if the 2nd half of winter is awesome, lots of places may still finish below normal. But again, winter in the northwoods is different than winter here in the southern Lakes. Here the dead of winter is mid Jan to mid Feb. As I mentioned, we average 42.7" and should only be at 5.4" so far. I try to go up to Paradise on Lake Superior every winter (cancelled last year because there was actually more snow here!), and they always tell you if you want to gamble for the deepest snow of winter, do the 3rd week of February. Even if you should have seen a quarter of your total snowfall by now, a quarter of your season is certainly not gone, no? I assume snow covers the ground til April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Im liking how all the models seem to be strengthening the clipper Saturday/Saturday night. Nothing major but what originally was just spotty qpf now is a solid shield of 0.05-0.1" qpf in true clipper form from eastern WI cutting through all of MI and into northern OH on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It really is true here in northern MN. anyways. We should have 24" by now and average for a season is around 85" so that's easily over a quarter of the way. I'm not sure if you are talking about Michigan northwoods or Wisconsin or Minnesota for that matter. They are all northwoods as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about Michigan or Wisconsin snowfalls totals yet either so I can't say your statement is true or not regarding those other states. But for MN you would be wrong. Northwoods includes... NWI, NMN, NMI, NONT Your right a big chunk of the season is gone,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Im liking how all the models seem to be strengthening the clipper Saturday/Saturday night. Nothing major but what originally was just spotty qpf now is a solid shield of 0.05-0.1" qpf in true clipper form from eastern WI cutting through all of MI and into northern OH on Saturday. Yeah looks a little more robust on some of the new guidance. Looks like much of Wisconsin and Michigan will pick up an inch or two of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The latest run of the GFS falls somewhere between the 06z run and the 12z run. Congrats to Chicago this run. I'm liking this new run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00z showing the New Years blowtorch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Northwoods includes... NWI, NMN, NMI, NONT Your right a big chunk of the season is gone,. When I threw out a snowfall number (saying DTW should have seen just 5.4" of its 42.7" seasonal snow) Im told we arent talking about DTW, and to ask business owners up north how they are hurting from lack of snow. When mnweather does the same thing (saying NMN should be at 24" of the season avg of 85" already) hes right, a good chunk of the seasons gone. The facts: There is little to no snow up north. Business owners are hurting because if there is no snow, there is no tourism. They will slowly lose more money the longer the snow takes to get there. Snowmobiling and skiing are the number #1 and 2 aspects of winter tourism, and their seasons officially got underway a little over 2 weeks ago. In no way, shape, or form is a good chunk of the winter tourism season gone. I like you and my intent certainly was not to get into arguments, so Ill leave this subject alone now, and will not be worrying about northwoods snow until I go up there in 2 months for my annual winter trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00z showing the New Years blowtorch... The annual new years torch, lol, luckily its the 16 day GFS, at some point it will show 498 thickness for New Years, and the result will probably be in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The annual new years torch, lol, luckily its the 16 day GFS, at some point it will show 498 thickness for New Years, and the result will probably be in between. At least Christmas still looks non-torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 2006-2007 had the epic lake effect snow. This season so far has not. Only epic LES event i seem to recall early on was the Oct event? Late Jan/Feb is when that really cranked up. Yeah, but it didnt start until mid-January LOL, a full month later than we are now. I wouldnt like to see a repeat of 2006-07, but Ill tell you, Ive never before seen a winter in SE MI with so much LES and so little synoptic snow. After setting a record for earliest measurable snow (0.2") on Oct 12, 2006, 0.1" fell Nov 2nd and 2.4" the first few days of December, then not a flake of snow fell from I believe Dec 8th to Jan 7th. It was extremely mild (much more mild than this Dec), and winter didnt really start til mid-Jan, hitting hard in early and mid Feb with powerful arctic fronts and one good snowstorm, Feb 13/14, where 8.5" fell with temps near 10F the whole storm, the only significant snowfall in a winter of frequent pennies and nickels. The April cold snap which canceled a Tigers game and gave us a white Easter was one of the longest streaks below 40F on record for April. Winter total snow was 30.3" at DTW and 36.3" imby. That winter was a oddity for sure with having more LES vs synoptic snow. The other oddity here was the biggest snow events happened in Oct and in April. Different story a couple of miles away to the south on south side of town thanks to that beastly i94 band. Oh and 06-07 I would not get too excited about. While yes there has been some similarities in the wx pattern ( the warmth ) alot of other things are much different. Talking QBO, ENSO, Solar, etc. JMHO While we may have a few shots at some snow ( thread the needle or whatever you wish to call it ) i as well think that it may not be till atleast Christmas before we see a break from this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Only epic LES event i seem to recall early on was the Oct event? Late Jan/Feb is when that really cranked up. That winter was a oddity for sure with having more LES vs synoptic snow. The other oddity here was the biggest snow events happened in Oct and in April. Different story a couple of miles away to the south on south side of town thanks to that beastly i94 band. Oh and 06-07 I would not get too excited about. While yes there has been some similarities in the wx pattern ( the warmth ) alot of other things are much different. Talking QBO, ENSO, Solar, etc. JMHO While we may have a few shots at some snow ( thread the needle or whatever you wish to call it ) i as well think that it may not be till atleast Christmas before we see a break from this pattern. Oh Christmas or later wouldnt surprise me as to a break in the pattern...but a pattern change is eventually coming, hopefully sooner than later. Actually we have a decent chance of snow Saturday then early next week SOMEBODY might get some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Thursday, December 15th: Hi: 56F Lo: 33F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 40MPH Rainfall: 0.08" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 At this point I am putting stake in the models from 72 to 0hr, anything before that I will take it for a grain of salt. Things have just been way too fluid this late fall for me to latch on anything too significant, except for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 When I threw out a snowfall number (saying DTW should have seen just 5.4" of its 42.7" seasonal snow) Im told we arent talking about DTW, and to ask business owners up north how they are hurting from lack of snow. When mnweather does the same thing (saying NMN should be at 24" of the season avg of 85" already) hes right, a good chunk of the seasons gone. The facts: There is little to no snow up north. Business owners are hurting because if there is no snow, there is no tourism. They will slowly lose more money the longer the snow takes to get there. Snowmobiling and skiing are the number #1 and 2 aspects of winter tourism, and their seasons officially got underway a little over 2 weeks ago. In no way, shape, or form is a good chunk of the winter tourism season gone. I like you and my intent certainly was not to get into arguments, so Ill leave this subject alone now, and will not be worrying about northwoods snow until I go up there in 2 months for my annual winter trip. You are correct that certainly a quarter of our season is not over. However, I do need to point out that many of the businesses up here that rely on winter recreation do a HUGE chunk of their ANNUAL (not just seasonal) business during the 2 weeks spanning just before Christmas until just after New Years. In fact, many businesses report that between 30 and 40% of their entire annual sales/profit come during those two weeks. So, given that we have had two pathetic excuses for a winter leading up to where we are now, plus the current stretch of basically no snow, these people are really hurting here. In fact, I know of a few businesses around this area that may be closing their doors for good if we don't turn this pattern around soon. Some good news for once: We did receive around 2" of new snow yesterday evening, so at least everything here in Gaylord is white again. Unfortunately it's nowhere near enough to sled on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 LOL @ in no way shape or form has a 1/4 of the season gone to **** up north. Like Gaylord said, without a miracle turnaround, in 2 weeks from now dam near 40% of profits will be gone and for those businesses hurting already, they will be closed up before some weenie from SE MI spends a few dollars taking pictures of snow in late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 LOL @ in no way shape or form has a 1/4 of the season gone to **** up north. Like Gaylord said, without a miracle turnaround, in 2 weeks from now dam near 40% of profits will be gone and for those businesses hurting already, they will be closed up before some weenie from SE MI spends a few dollars taking pictures of snow in late Feb. Ignorance must be bliss. So some spots in Southern MI have near or above normal snowfall. Why can't everyone else see that it is all OK Michsnowfreak while there is plenty of winter ahead and I appreciate your positive attitude. Economy up north has a lot to do with snow. Wyandotte not so much. Many people are just scrapping by right now. While the persistent slow starts don't effect or bother you personally it does have significant ramifications on those that depend on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00z showing the New Years blowtorch... I have noticed that this feature has been around for several model runs. It does make you wonder. GFS basically says mid 60 for lower Michigan and every flake of snow melted all the way up into central Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Its one thing to lament the pattern we are in (trust me I hate this pattern as much as anybody, seeing grass 10 days before Christmas is NOT how Id dream things up lol), but there are plenty of posts implying doom for the winter, below normal snowfall, etc etc. Im not going to call out anyone nor do I want to go back to find or quote said posts, but there have been several. We've had so many snowy winters lately that I think people seem to think mild and/or snowless starts to winter are so taboo, when unfortunately if you look back over decades of data, they arent at all (of course, the near unanimously cold/snowy winter forecasts of this year are no help in the matter). Now whether these posts are serious or tongue-in-cheek, that could be where some confusion is, its always hard to read between the lines when you are reading words on a screen, not hearing the person talk. You can go ahead and call out whomever you please, because personally, I don't think there's anything wrong with stating facts. Being near snowless this deep into December does not bode well for the rest of the winter. There have been 14 Decembers since 1843 in Toronto that have had <3" of snow. 9 of them featured below average snowfall for the winter overall. And 2 of the 5 that didn't were saved by super unlikely events that you cannot count on to occur (a major November blizzard in 1950 and the two weeks that began Jan 1999). So I don't see how me pointing this out is being doom and gloom. I think part (maybe most) of the problem is that your viewing the situation through DTW glasses. Your area has been one of the few that has managed to achieve near normal snowfall. For the rest of us, this is easily the worst start to winter in 5 years. So bear with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 When I threw out a snowfall number (saying DTW should have seen just 5.4" of its 42.7" seasonal snow) Im told we arent talking about DTW, and to ask business owners up north how they are hurting from lack of snow. When mnweather does the same thing (saying NMN should be at 24" of the season avg of 85" already) hes right, a good chunk of the seasons gone. The facts: There is little to no snow up north. Business owners are hurting because if there is no snow, there is no tourism. They will slowly lose more money the longer the snow takes to get there. Snowmobiling and skiing are the number #1 and 2 aspects of winter tourism, and their seasons officially got underway a little over 2 weeks ago. In no way, shape, or form is a good chunk of the winter tourism season gone. I like you and my intent certainly was not to get into arguments, so Ill leave this subject alone now, and will not be worrying about northwoods snow until I go up there in 2 months for my annual winter trip. Nope. Its just a discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Roughly 0.50" or so from getting to the magical number of 50" of precipitation for the year at LAF. Of course I have to use a nearby COOP for the May totals due to the fail at the airport, but still pretty impressive. Looks like the next system could seal the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Swimming in Winnipeg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Swimming in Winnipeg! There's actually a closed +12 contour embedded within that. Ridiculously warm. And although it's a 300+ hour GFS prog, it has been showing that for a couple of runs and seems to jive with what the ensembles are saying. So, not only is there not a light at the end of the tunnel. Things might actually get worse before they get better. Seems like we've got the worst of both worlds. No blocking/raging SE ridge typical of a Nina but with the split flow/strong pacific jet you get in a Nino. Hopefully one of those pre-Christmas events pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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