LizardMafia Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Venting is fine in my back...to a point of course. Trolling...yeah, we're going to be getting a lot more of that in the near future me thinks. Actually it's probably already starting... Yeah, I think it's going to get a little fugly if someone doesn't see snow soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 There's actually a closed +12 contour embedded within that. Ridiculously warm. And although it's a 300+ hour GFS prog, it has been showing that for a couple of runs and seems to jive with what the ensembles are saying. So, not only is there not a light at the end of the tunnel. Things might actually get worse before they get better. Seems like we've got the worst of both worlds. No blocking/raging SE ridge typical of a Nina but with the split flow/strong pacific jet you get in a Nino. Hopefully one of those pre-Christmas events pans out. The 2m temperature departure maps from the 6z GEFS at days 13 and 14 are something to behold. Of course I guess normal highs are also dropping in that timeframe as well...but the +21 shading from pretty much all of western Canada into the northern Plains is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah, I think it's going to get a little fugly if someone doesn't see snow soon.. Heh, I'm actually proud that most if not all of our posters have "held it together" so far this December. You've been around long enough (at previous boards) to remember people melting down in past terrible winter months...myself included at times I'm sure. But there isn't much we can do right now. Hope for the best for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I have noticed that this feature has been around for several model runs. It does make you wonder. GFS basically says mid 60 for lower Michigan and every flake of snow melted all the way up into central Ontario. When you look at this it tells you 2m temps, actually it was nowhere near that warm (upper-30s) http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDTW. Even that bubble of +12 850s and 555 thickness over International Falls on 6z is yielding surface lows in the mid-20s and highs in the mid-30s. But its 16 days away so honestly its of no interest attm, several other storms to get through first. The real interesting thing is how common the New Years torch has been, usually lasting just NYE and NYD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 December 15-16, 2007 anniversary remembrance day. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/149408-great-lakesmidwestohio-valley-winter-storm-december-15-17/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Heh, I'm actually proud that most if not all of our posters have "held it together" so far this December. You've been around long enough (at previous boards) to remember people melting down in past terrible winter months...myself included at times I'm sure. But there isn't much we can do right now. Hope for the best for the future. I think it helps that 95% of our posters are in the same, "where's the snow?" boat. There's a feeling of mutual camaraderie at this point. Wait til the first storm or two hits, which will inevitably leave many still snow free, while pushing others closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think it helps that 95% of our posters are in the same, "where's the snow?" boat. There's a feeling of mutual camaraderie at this point. Wait til the first storm or two hits, which will inevitably leave many still snow free, while pushing others closer to normal. Ah yes, everyone in the same support group right now...good call. Never thought about down the line...you are probably right about that too. I'll make a vow now that if I'm in the "screw zone" in the future, I'll try to keep a brave face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 December 15-16, 2007 anniversary remembrance day. http://www.easternus...december-15-17/ 10.5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 10.5" here 10.5" here too. And I'm sure Hoosier will come in later and make a comment about someone, that may or not be myself, giving up and going to bed early. Good thing I'll be at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 December 15-16, 2007 anniversary remembrance day. http://www.easternus...december-15-17/ Ah memories. Still the most snow I've ever seen in any one event...17"! Driving home from work at 2 am with snow coming down at 2-3" per hour with lightning was interesting to say the least. Loved it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Ignorance must be bliss. So some spots in Southern MI have near or above normal snowfall. Why can't everyone else see that it is all OK . you totally missed what he did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 you totally missed what he did there. No. I did not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 10.5" here 9.8" here. Was a nice storm, and really the beginning of that winter, as there had been very little snow to that point here. Even though this was a nice storm, for many areas it wasnt the biggest of the 2007-08 season. For the NW burbs it was Jan 1st, with 14-16", and many downriver/eastern areas nudged it out with March 4/5th (I had 10.3" plus tons of thunder/lightning, so Dec 15/16 ended up being my 2nd fav storm that winter ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 9.8" here. Was a nice storm, and really the beginning of that winter, as there had been very little snow to that point here. Even though this was a nice storm, for many areas it wasnt the biggest of the 2007-08 season. For the NW burbs it was Jan 1st, with 14-16", and many downriver/eastern areas nudged it out with March 4/5th (I had 10.3" plus tons of thunder/lightning, so Dec 15/16 ended up being my 2nd fav storm that winter ) 16.5" 24 hr total. 2" from 8 pm to 1 am .. then all hell broke loose. Went to bed woke up at 4am couldn't see 10 feet passed my driveway it was insane. 12" from basically 2am to 6am. another 2.5" through out the day. I just missed the 20" plateau. There was a strip of very intense snow showers that dumped 3-4 additional inches just off to my west around 4- 7pm that night . At the time I was thinking this was my shot at a 20" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 21 here early this morning. Think some of the greener grass was frost bitten overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 21 here early this morning. Think some of the greener grass was frost bitten overnight. We got down to 20. GFS showing some light snowfall tomorrow morning around sunrise, maybe I'll get lucky and manage to see a dusting when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 We got down to 20. GFS showing some light snowfall tomorrow morning around sunrise, maybe I'll get lucky and manage to see a dusting when I wake up. I'm hoping for maybe a quick half-inch from that thing, but that's about the ceiling for that little bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm hoping for maybe a quick half-inch from that thing, but that's about the ceiling for that little bugger. They are saying perhaps some lake enhancement on this side of the lake leading to maybe a couple inches. I'm hoping, hoping, and hoping that tomorrow we get our first official inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 D10 EURO doesn't look horrible. Looks like we're about to get impacted by a fairly potent clipper type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Didn't think it was possible for the GFS to spit out even less precip than the 0.08" the 6z did - 12z = 0.06" I know, I shouldn't even be looking at the GFS, let alone that far out but I can't help it ATM.. Momma Nature throwing a few low blows to the weenie now after it was looking like there was at least a chance to eek out an inch or so before Christmas but now it's looks like I'll get to experience a florida like snowfall dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Our lower Lakes weather seems more fitting for Seattle with all the rain. Old man winter is taking a vacation or something around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Our lower Lakes weather seems more fitting for Seattle with all the rain. Old man winter is taking a vacation or something around here! Might be our best snow event of the season tonight! Which means very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Went to the airport today (thought about shrink wrapping stebos ride) to pick up some family. Had to look at the arrival an departure boards.. Relized that there is a big difference between Delay and Cancel. Laughed and thought about the weather.. Here's to the clipper! Nickle and dining MBy into seasonal norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Might be our best snow event of the season tonight! Which means very little. This system kinda snuck in further south! It has to top 0.7" to be the best one so far here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 1.9" reported with the band up in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Glanced at the ECM Monthly Control of AccuPro... it could look a lot worse, but it could look a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 D10 EURO doesn't look horrible. Looks like we're about to get impacted by a fairly potent clipper type storm. If there is anything to get mildly excited about, it does seem the Pacific Jet is going to get a bit perturbed unleashing a wavetrain of Alberta Clippers into the plains along the base of the upper PV. If anything these systems can surprise at times with nice nuisance snows and LES for the folks in those zones. Better than the crap lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 1.9" reported with the band up in MN. I wonder if this might be one of these disturbances that exceeds expectations and causes some surprises for a few, select people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 0z NAM sim radar "kicks it up a notch" as the band sweeps through Chicago. Eh, I guess it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 This is the only positive thing I can find in the extended...though note the skill as to which the GFS ensembles predict it (gets worse the farther out). But in light of the other indices being terrible...you have to try to find some glimmer of good. That's about all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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