10/20--10/24 COOL/COLD? SHOT-- another huge east coast trough coming in

[Midlo Snow Maker]

for several days the models have been showing another deep trough coming in, good signs for winter?

10/14 12z euro has all but the far south east corner of va in the 30s on saturday and sunday Hi's in the 50's 850T running a good 10-12c below nomal

[dryslot]

Bring it on.

[WxUSAF]

12z GFS is darn chilly as well. Its still out in fantasy land, but has lows that weekend (22-23) in the 20s for the DC and Bmore burbs.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

0z euro continues to be chilly

0z gfs

[HoCoSnowBo]

LOL anybody see the snow storm on the 12z GFS?

[yoda]

LOL anybody see the snow storm on the 12z GFS?

Maybe wet snow in the mts... east of there its probably rain

[BethesdaWX]

LOL anybody see the snow storm on the 12z GFS?

'tis dead & gone

[HoCoSnowBo]

'tis dead & gone

yeah... but 'tis was a beautiful sight

[Kmlwx]

'tis dead & gone

Like your life as a bachelor.

[EasternUSWX]

'tis dead & gone

It's back. lol. It would be one awesome storm. but, ya not likely at all.

[BethesdaWX]

hope I haven't started a 384hr GFS fetish, sorry

[HoCoSnowBo]

What website did you get this version of the GFS from?

It's back. lol. It would be one awesome storm. but, ya not likely at all.

[WVclimo]

What website did you get this version of the GFS from?

That's from IPS MeteoStar. You can get text output, and if you click on the underlined values it gives the maps.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI

[Ji]

Euro big rain for us...Gfs nothing

[Ellinwood]

Looking at the 00z GFS and Euro raw ensemble numbers for lows Sat 10/22 - Mon 10/24...

DCA GFS, Euro

10/22: 38, 40

10/23: 37, 39

10/24: 38, 42

BWI GFS, Euro

10/22: 38, 41

10/23: 37, 40

10/24: 38, 43

IAD GFS, Euro

10/22: 36, 39

10/23: 34, 39

10/24: 36, 42

The "lowest low" out of the ensemble members for this period (all were on the GFS for Mon 10/24):

DCA: 33

BWI: 33

IAD: 31

[MN Transplant]

Euro big rain for us...Gfs nothing

There would be much angst in about 3 months.

[wxmeddler]

There would me much angst in about 3 months.

At least it will be windy...

[mattie g]

There would be much angst in about 3 months.

Snowanus

[Bob Chill]

There would be much angst in about 3 months.

Where have I seen that before? It's on the tip of my tongue. Somewhere in the back of my mind I remember seeing a string of maps just like that but I just can't place it......

[mitchnick]

Euro big rain for us...Gfs nothing

add today's 12Z NAM to the Euro camp

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

although, we keep seeing that trough in the GL in the pattern

that better change in 6 weeks or it's gonna' be a long, damp winter

[mitchnick]

Where have I seen that before? It's on the tip of my tongue. Somewhere in the back of my mind I remember seeing a string of maps just like that but I just can't place it......

nah, not this year

we'll get the qpf, but will it be wet or white?

like I said in my post above, I'm getting a little anxious with that trough setting up shop in the GL

[Bob Chill]

nah, not this year

we'll get the qpf, but will it be wet or white?

like I said in my post above, I'm getting a little anxious with that trough setting up shop in the GL

I'm with ya man. Last year was just a matter of inches in the grand scheme. There are really only 2 things I don't want to see this winter and I'm really not worried about either. Persistent SE ridge or the NS up in Canada as the Pac floods the lower 48 with mild air.

I'm ready for some apps runners though. Maybe a little CAD ice/wet flakes with those. We are going to have opportunity with an amplified pattern from time to time. I'm pretty certain we enjoy a -AO/NAO for an extended period this winter. Maybe 6 weeks or so?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

local mets are talking possible frost looks like the models did pretty well from a good ways out

[Midlo Snow Maker]

anyone see the 0z EURO big snows in western half of va/ wva.. even central areas could see some flakes

snowfall hr 180 lol

[Ellinwood]

anyone see the 0z EURO big snows in western half of va/ wva.. even central areas could see some flakes

snowfall hr 180 lol

00z GFS has it as well. It's actually plausible with this system... not counting it out. I wouldn't be surprised to see some accumulation in the eastern Midwest and Appalachians. Accumulation (or any snow for that matter) east of the Apps would be really hard to get, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did see some snow on the back edge of this thing.

That is one sexy 500mb vort on the GFS

[CoastalWx]

Kevin is close to locking it in, so it will happen.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Kevin is close to locking it in, so it will happen.

[mitchnick]

Kevin is close to locking it in, so it will happen.

not gonna' happen w/o the stutter

[stormtracker]

anyone see the 0z EURO big snows in western half of va/ wva.. even central areas could see some flakes

snowfall hr 180 lol

Chase!

[CoastalWx]

not gonna' happen w/o the stutter

Well give him a break....he's just coming off the full torch summer mode. He may be a little rusty.

Either way, there may be some sort of a coastal next week...but lets just take a step back before getting excited. If anything, it could usher in an airmass that will end the growing season for some. Perhaps some of the higher elevation folk might want to keep an eye out for next week.