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Mid-Atlantic September Obs


SoCoWx

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I can't help but look at the HPC models for the Gulf on the 5-day. Granted...that's the Gulf...but we often experience the remnants of whatever occurs there. NHC gives it a 10% chance of development but I just saw a prediction of 11.3 inches off the coast of LA. That gets caught up in a front and we have ourselves a serious rain threat. Thoughts?

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I can't help but look at the HPC models for the Gulf on the 5-day. Granted...that's the Gulf...but we often experience the remnants of whatever occurs there. NHC gives it a 10% chance of development but I just saw a prediction of 11.3 inches off the coast of LA. That gets caught up in a front and we have ourselves a serious rain threat. Thoughts?

I don't really see it. I see the prediction of heavy rainfall in the Gulf but that does not translate to heavy rain here. GFS doesn't seem to throw a lot of QPF our way. Also, that HPC is not a model - that's the HPC QPF prediction.

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Ian, I've been trying to find a list of all the tropical storms and hurricanes that have directly affected the DC area. Where do I find that?

That LWX list is very good.. I had a more comprehensive list by sifting through the WaPo archive articles from every single hurricane/TS that came close to us from best-track that I posted on Eastern. I'll try to dig that up and start a thread in this forum. The original post was about all the instances we experienced TS conditions (that I defined as frequent gusts over 40 mph) in our area from a tropical system.

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12z GFS squashes the idea of a major cooldown thanks to that system in the Gulf. Keeps us in rain almost every day next week. Frederick precip bullsye at 192hr!:popcorn:

Is that Kattia east of the mid-Atlantic in the 192 - 228 hrs of the 18z gfs? I'm not suggesting that it's right but wondering if that's what the gfs is spewing.

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Is NWS asleep this morning? My forecast is partly sunny, no mention of rain, yet radar shows a big area of rain and storms about to come through. Complete disconnect there.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

I've been scratching my head too. I've been watching the complex move through PA all morning and wonder how does it not rain? I assumed it would just fall apart once downsloping starts and bumps into dry air but I'm not so sure now.

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http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

I've been scratching my head too. I've been watching the complex move through PA all morning and wonder how does it not rain? I assumed it would just fall apart once downsloping starts and bumps into dry air but I'm not so sure now.

Yeah, it's been cloudy most of the day. Temperature is currently sitting at 72 degrees here, with moderate rain for about the last half hour or so. Definitely not "partly sunny and 84 degrees". :raining:

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Is NWS asleep this morning? My forecast is partly sunny, no mention of rain, yet radar shows a big area of rain and storms about to come through. Complete disconnect there.

Heard NWS was in a meeting yesterday. Mount Holly office took over surveillance. Surprised to see no Special Weather Statement, or at the very least a Short Term Forecast.

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The heat sneaked back in today. I wasn't expecting it to be this hot. I broke my station high for the year today besting the heat we had in July. Heat advisory in effect.

My high for the day so far is 96. Normal is 81.

It snuck up on a lot of places... especially in the southern Midwest. MOS low by 5+ on the highs, which creeped into the low/mid 100s in some areas. Daily records tied/broken in a good number of places. Most of that heat will collapse after tomorrow as the through starts to interact with Lee.

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