Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 First rain band has arrived, 2.84 per hour rate on davis (at work SECT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well Phil, Wiil, Kev etc..if you don't mind texting me the model updates..would appreciate it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's not negativity. You have a weak hurricane (were there any official reporting stations that measured hurricane conditions)...that is now over land and looks to be moving over the landmass in ENC. Best case it scrapes the shore with some chance it goes inland. Either way it's not delivering hurricane conditions or struggling to do that now. Unless it's the first cane north of there to strengthen while over land or north of Carolina it won't be a cane here. They may call it that, but again, let's see the obs. Will is right, it could get pretty nasty Sunday but it's not producing wide spread hurricane conditions right now nevermind in 24 hours. The massive windfield in this is one of the reasons I'm going to the Cape for this one. Normally they might be well east of the best winds in a smaller storm, but looking at the data, its hard to ignore what may happen there tomorrow afternoon into the evening. I think we should see some hurricane force gusts down there. I doubt anyone sees sustained hurricane force winds, but I could see a lot of gusts >70 knots if that 70-75 knots just off the deck can get mixed down from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's pretty strong for all of coastal ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Heading into Boston for a little bit...if someone could text me updates that would be great - 617.620.4956 I know I don't know any of you as of now, so if you don't want to it's fine. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 So if I go up a prominent (IE cliffs on 2 sides) 400' hill in SE CT that's 8 miles inland, that will probably have better winds than the beach? If its very exposed, then yeah, it will gust higher than the shoreline. It depends on what type of shore line and how exposed the hill is as to which one might gust higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 some heavy showers popping in CT, even may be training a bit near DXR. Gotta keep an eye on that. Coming down hard here in S Litchfield. Has been for last hour. Gotta love lift the hills provide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah It's been doing that since yesterday too. Glad you saw that. It could blow pretty hard for a while down there right into high tide. 925mb (which may be somewhat of a gust indicator) blows. S-SW winds there would really pile up the water. Yeah thats definitely been the theme in a lot of products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Daytime will also help with the gusts tomorrow as well. Hopefully it doesn't disappoint which is a slight concern for me, but we'll just have to see how it goes. Seeing that LLJ is pretty impressive and possibly an indication of ex transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The massive windfield in this is one of the reasons I'm going to the Cape for this one. Normally they might be well east of the best winds in a smaller storm, but looking at the data, its hard to ignore what may happen there tomorrow afternoon into the evening. I think we should see some hurricane force gusts down there. I doubt anyone sees sustained hurricane force winds, but I could see a lot of gusts >70 knots if that 70-75 knots just off the deck can get mixed down from time to time. Good luck! I just got back from Montauk Point yesterday. The station was willing to put me up for a few extra days but being concerned about freshwater flooding up here I opted to comeback. My wife was disappointed she was getting psyched for a hurricane. Speaking of wind I could see Bennington and North Adams doing well on sustained winds and gusts; gusts to 60-65 mph could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah thats definitely been the theme in a lot of products. Thats the big threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well Will mentioned the low lvl jet and the winds just off the deck. OSU had been mentioning the RRQ of the upper lvl jet all week and I wonder if that is helping to broaden the wind field and keep the pressures so low synoptically.Anyways...here's the 33hr H95 winds on the 12z NAM. Not bad even along the NH/ME coasts. For E/SE MA 30hr was a little more impressive than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11 am disco shifted track slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm a little confused as to where the strongest winds will be. On the one hand I would think that they would be just west of the track over by New Haven or Bridgeport. But then it looks like there's this strong LLJ to the east by the cape. I almost feel like SE CT could be caught in a hole but maybe I am imagining that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Most of SNE has an 80 knot LLJ, but it doesn't have the hurricane force winds just off the deck like it does on the Cape. Does the NAM tend to over forecast the LLJ intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 TWC live shots.... Noel's Big sister. Nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Daytime will also help with the gusts tomorrow as well. Hopefully it doesn't disappoint which is a slight concern for me, but we'll just have to see how it goes. Seeing that LLJ is pretty impressive and possibly an indication of ex transition. Yeah I think the LLJ really gets cranking more as the storm gets absorbed into the upper level support to the north (jet streak)...either way, its very impressive out over the Cape tomorrow PM. I was surprised to see how agressive the NAM was with it despite its further W track which sort of leads me to believe this feature is at least somewhat independent of how strong the tropical inner core remains. Having 70-75 knots at 950mb and 85 at 900mb will certainly give some big gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Does the NAM tend to over forecast the LLJ intensity? I'm not sure, but its been similar on all guidance save 5 knots here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think an 8-10" storm is a bigger deal for NH over 50kt gusts. If this thing takes a NAM track I don't think we'll get much for wind up here away from coastal Rockingham county and the higher els. Do you really think we'll see 8-10" with that track? I'm almost thinking we miss out on the big wind and the big rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 cnn just had an awesome shot of the sound spilling into atlantic beach on nw winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Do you really think we'll see 8-10" with that track? I'm almost thinking we miss out on the big wind and the big rain now. Not with the NAM track. We needed the track that went over Ray's noggin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Still 24 hours out.. I wouldn't be surprised if it ticks east as it reaches NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Still 24 hours out.. I wouldn't be surprised if it ticks east as it reaches NE Probaby just the weenie in me (no need for modification), but I am holding out hope that that is what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm a little confused as to where the strongest winds will be. On the one hand I would think that they would be just west of the track over by New Haven or Bridgeport. But then it looks like there's this strong LLJ to the east by the cape. I almost feel like SE CT could be caught in a hole but maybe I am imagining that. I would go to the coast about 50 miles east of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Please stop posting. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah I think the LLJ really gets cranking more as the storm gets absorbed into the upper level support to the north (jet streak)...either way, its very impressive out over the Cape tomorrow PM. I was surprised to see how agressive the NAM was with it despite its further W track which sort of leads me to believe this feature is at least somewhat independent of how strong the tropical inner core remains. Having 70-75 knots at 950mb and 85 at 900mb will certainly give some big gust potential. Yeah even Gloria gusted to 100mph all the way in CHH...likely a function of a similar LLJ. Good luck there...I think you are in a ok spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Probaby just the weenie in me (no need for modification), but I am holding out hope that that is what happens. Believe me, as Will stated, the Cape will get more wind than anyone and if you go to east coastal MA you'll do just fine. All the profs have winds strongest over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like it have turned back a bit to the north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Daytime will also help with the gusts tomorrow as well. Hopefully it doesn't disappoint which is a slight concern for me, but we'll just have to see how it goes. Seeing that LLJ is pretty impressive and possibly an indication of ex transition. Perhaps even some dry slotting too would be nice steepen the LL lapse rates some; in addition the isallobaric couplet will be a player, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene is certainly taking its sweet time just east of New Bern, NC right now based on radar. I don't like how much of mainland NC it appears it may go over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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