Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

I agree with you in part. But the loss of power will be significant up and down the coast and I believe this is going to be the biggest headline from this event.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

You are an awful poster. We understand your angle. You don't need to keep harping on it. This will likely be the worst hurricane to strike SNE in most of our lives.

[Ginx snewx]

Up to 3 SNE posters on the ignore list so far for this storm and the list is growing!

So far no Kevin but we're early in the game.

Ryan, timing of TS force winds tomorrow night? Appreciate it

[Professional Lurker]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

Besides the media "crying wolf," is there really anything wrong with the hype? ...it forces an awareness on people, an awareness leads to preparedness. Is actually being ready for the worst a bad thing???

[Baroclinic Zone]

Up to 3 SNE posters on the ignore list so far for this storm and the list is growing!

So far no Kevin but we're early in the game.

Gawd, I wish black ops was in full effect.

[Cloudsncontrails]

Hopefully it's only 2 trees that fall on your house..not 4

Lol you talk tough buddy. Way to wish someone else bad. You stay classy. I hope there's nothing but blue sky's and chirping birds over your house Sunday.

[SnowMan]

How do you put someone on ignore?

[MJHUB]

over under on power loss east of the eye? I say 2 days.. any guesses

[free_man]

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

Over the years we laugh and scoff at Gloria , as to it being a "dud" and a letdown...when this is done Glorias bust will be forgotten.

[Damage In Tolland]

Up to 3 SNE posters on the ignore list so far for this storm and the list is growing!

So far no Kevin but we're early in the game.

You love me too much for that

[SnowMan]

Lol you talk tough buddy. Way to wish someone else bad. You stay classy. I hope there's nothing but blue sky's and chirping birds over your house Sunday.

Can someone 5 post this guy?

[DomNH]

over under on power loss east of the eye? I say 2 days.. any guesses

I'm sure it'll be longer. If we have power loss numbers like the '08 ice storm or the '10 nor'easter (250k in NH, not 100k people, my mistake), it'll be at least a week for some people.

[mattlacroix4]

OK, what do you got for me GFS

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol you talk tough buddy. Way to wish someone else bad. You stay classy. I hope there's nothing but blue sky's and chirping birds over your house Sunday.

You're right..1 tree on the house..and one on the car

[scoob40]

You are an awful poster. We understand your angle. You don't need to keep harping on it. This will likely be the worst hurricane to strike SNE in most of our lives.

Isn't it an open question at this point whether it will be worse than Gloria or Bob ?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I don't think it will strengthen. We've seen this before...once a storm gets internal structure issues with a very broad windfield even with favorable environmental conditions it's difficult to restrengthen. There wasn't an eye on the last recon.

Outstanding point and one I've heard from others in the past. Amazing storms, but whatever it is, once they spread out they seem to never be able to tighten back up. I just don't really understand what happened this time unless it was bad timing on the ERC?

WTF is wrong with PPL? Nobody is saying a CAT 4. But a CAT 1 going the NHC track will bring significant tree damage to much of SNE and surge to the south coast. Nobody is expecting every roof to fly off, nor should they. However maybe some sturctures damaged near the south coast I would guess, from wind alone.

Scott honestly, for a few days the forecasts were calling for it to be up around 125 right now and the expectation was it could be even higher. It's 105 with an open eye. There's some dissapointment. It could still pull back together. Even if it doesn't Gloria passed the Outer Banks around 105 and 942 and did quite a bit of damage along the way up into NE. One difference from this storm is Gloria pulsed up as it approached the Carolinas after dropping for a bit, this one seems to be flat-lining for the time being as it approaches. I'd actually think if we don't see it perk back up this would end up weaker than Gloria at impact up here, JMHO.

Gloria made landfall in BDR as a 65 knot cat 1

It did, http://stormadvisory.org/map/atlantic/?1985s7

It was also strengthening a bit as it approached the Carolinas.

I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators.

Even a landfalling tropical storm would do considerable damage.

[Cloudsncontrails]

Besides the media "crying wolf," is there really anything wrong with the hype? ...it forces an awareness on people, an awareness leads to preparedness. Is actually being ready for the worst a bad thing???

Or it makes people less likely to believe them and dismiss their warnings because they know it won't come to fruition. Then when there is a legitimate threat they mitigate the threat or outright dismiss it. So yes, there's a lot wrong with the hype.

[powderfreak]

How's the wind looking at 4,000ft in northern VT? The mountains of VT and NH will get rocked with this regardless... 70kts sustained on the GFS at H85 in these parts. Uprooted trees galore. Those winds are not uncommon in the winter, but how about with full foliage?

Snowmobile trails are going to take a beating across the high terrain with uprooted trees. Up here the ski resort has spent the past two days clearing culverts and major drainage basins... they are gearing up for what could be a long Sunday into Monday. Additional staff has been brought in on Sunday to monitor things.

...WINDS...

DIRECTION AND TIMING...NORTHEAST AND INCREASING SHARPLY BY LATER

SUNDAY...BACKING TO STRONG NORTHERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY

NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

SUSTAINED/GUST SPEEDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS 30 TO 45 MPH. GUSTS 35 TO

50 MPH ACROSS NY...AND 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS VT. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY

IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT DUE TO NORTHERLY

CHANNELING...AND ALSO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VT WHEN

NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MORE LIKELY. ALSO PLEASE

NOTE...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF

THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT.

IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE LIKELY AND LARGE

SCALE POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS

EASTWARD.

[MJHUB]

I'm sure it'll be longer. If we have power loss numbers like the '08 ice storm or the '10 nor'easter (250k in NH, not 100k people, my mistake), it'll be at least a week for some people.

I would guess that as well for more remote areas, As most peoples jobs these days the internet plays a huge roll, i would amagine significant disruptions in commerce.

[OKpowdah]

thanks for posting that.. adds some perspective.. how are those numbers for other NE landfalling Hurricanes?

Floyd, right before landfall in NC:

64 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW

50 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 60NW

34 KT.......225NE 225SE 150SW 125NW

12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 200SW 75NW

[adamrivers]

Or it makes people less likely to believe them and dismiss their warnings because they know it won't come to fruition. Then when there is a legitimate threat they mitigate the threat or outright dismiss it. So yes, there's a lot wrong with the hype.

To be honest - comparable to other tropical threats over the years, and winter storms for that matter - I have never seen as many people take it so seriously so far in advance.....and have so many people talking about it. Stores at least here in Eastern Connecticut are having a hard time keeping their shelves stocked with anything and everyone from Springfield to Mystic (where I am now) is sold out of generators, battery packs, etc.

[CT Rain]

at 30N hurricane Gloria was a cat 1... 80 knots/946mb

Irene is at 30.7N at cat 2... 90knots/945mb

[Professional Lurker]

Or it makes people less likely to believe them and dismiss their warnings because they know it won't come to fruition. Then when there is a legitimate threat they mitigate the threat or outright dismiss it. So yes, there's a lot wrong with the hype.

Right, the "crying wolf" factor that I referred to. However, I honestly feel that they're saving lives and property each time they hype a hurricane in SNE. They happen so rarely that people forget...

It only takes one, you know??

Anyway, relax a bit, you're starting to stir the hornet's nest.

[Tropopause_Fold]

at 30N hurricane Gloria was a cat 1... 80 knots/946mb

Irene is at 30.7N at cat 2... 90knots/945mb

ryan please don't post factual information.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, a quick look at hurricanes that made NC landfall at Category 2 or above in August or September reveals that storms tracking generally due north or somewhat east of north have not strengthened as they reached/passed NC. Gloria (1985) was an exception. However during its northward trajectory, it only gained strength by 5 knots. Hence, the historical data suggests little strengthening is likely for Irene. It probably won't return to major hurricane strength if the historic data is right. Recent trends, the NHC forecast and modeling also argue against significant strengthening. Hence, I believe NC landfall with maximum sustained winds in the vicinity of 100 mph to 110 mph is probably the most likely scenario.

[Ed Lizard]

Power loss length is only somewhat storm dependent. In Rita, we were in the dark for about 12 hours (no sustained hurricane winds here) but 10 miles away in Humble, TX people went two weeks. We were dark for almost 6 days after Ike, some neighborhoods were back on in a couple of days, some were out for two weeks.

My office has underground cables, and we had power (and work) the Monday after Ike.

[TalcottWx]

Unimpressive satellite picture at the current moment.. Really not happy to see that. I just saw the ETA and another model have come west a bit... If the GFS does I would be concerned for you guys. With that satellite representation and being too far overland.. we might see this storm weaken to TS strength before it hits SNE.. Slightly concerned.

[bobbutts]

I had lots of locals tell me I was an idiot Yankee for taking Charley seriously in Florida, I was told that all storms weaken or pass by the area, and that my preparations were a waste of time and money. The storm of course threw a curveball and the effects were much worse than expected at my location. Bottom line is nobody knows exactly what will happen until it's too late to prepare, so preparations must me made with the distinct possibility that they are unnecessary. In flood-prone areas this is a matter of life and death. Inland it's mostly just a matter of preparing for possible loss of power and transportation, so preparing alternate means of power generation and a supply of food and water is common sense. Regardless of the severity of the storm or it's eventual track, I believe it's very safe to say there will be widespread power loss and potentially dangerous coastal flooding.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

at 30N hurricane Gloria was a cat 1... 80 knots/946mb

Irene is at 30.7N at cat 2... 90knots/945mb

Maybe this clip is wrong, but the BZ had it at 130mph at 33.5N 76W...has to be wrong..he must have been talking about gusts.

[bobbutts]

FWIW, a quick look at hurricanes that made NC landfall at Category 2 or above in August or September reveals that storms tracking generally due north or somewhat east of north have not strengthened as they reached/passed NC. Gloria (1985) was an exception. However during its northward trajectory, it only gained strength by 5 knots. Hence, the historical data suggests little strengthening is likely for Irene. It probably won't return to major hurricane strength if the historic data is right. Recent trends, the NHC forecast and modeling also argue against significant strengthening. Hence, I believe NC landfall with maximum sustained winds in the vicinity of 100 mph to 110 mph is probably the most likely scenario.

Thanks for dropping in.. Hope the storm is enjoyable for you!