DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The GFS goes over OBX but it's going to miss Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Right, the "crying wolf" factor that I referred to. However, I honestly feel that they're saving lives and property each time they hype a hurricane in SNE. They happen so rarely that people forget... It only takes one, you know?? Anyway, relax a bit, you're starting to stir the hornet's nest. That's not my intention. This will be a big storm and it will have a temoundous impact. It's a very serious situation. The preparation undoubtably saved lives and thats a good thing. If hoping/rooting for this thing to fizzle out or misses us all together makes me a bad poster, so be it. I'd rather be a bad poster on a weather forum than see people get hurt and/or their property destroyed. My intent is not to inflame or troll here, but since a differing opinion is not welcome I'll just go. I hope you all enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can't wait for Tropical Storm Irene to make landfall in NE so I can come back to this thread and read all this 1938 hurricane stuff and laugh. This storm looks weaker with each advisory and less and less impressive. The chances of me not living like a caveman for the next two weeks is improving every hour. I'm going to feel bad for everyone who watched TWC and their video clips of 1938, believed the hype and rushed out to by generators. I'd reckon that it's better to be prepared and have a storm fizzle than the opposite. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Obviously SNE isn't going to look like Homestead,Fl post Andrew but it would be foolish to underestimate the potential for disruption/damage. The very nature of Hurricanes is unpredictability, way better to say "glad I didn't need the generator and extra provisions" then "Sh*t, no power or food for a few days". We've spent the last 5hrs doing storm prep , hopefully we won't need to cut our way out come Monday morning but if the worst happens we're ready. I'll get calls from guys like contrail wanting help if disaster strikes. Bottom of the list.lol Probably will end up windy and rainy and not much else but probably isn't good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe this clip is wrong, but the BZ had it at 130mph at 33.5N 76W...has to be wrong..he must have been talking about gusts. I believe those figures were revised downward in the best track analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is c/e LI to C/E CT. but on my maps the center is giant so hard to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 it also has horrendous rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like E LI or S CT landfall at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z is very fast. High tide destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Almost looks max winds 12z-15z in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I believe those figures were revised downward in the best track analysis. Many of the people here weren't even alive during Gloria and certainly weren't up watching Cheers that night. I was just talking to my old man...he said all stations ran with 130mph that night, was from NHC. I think you are right they revised it downward afterwards. Again though, perceptions for those of us alive and with memories of Gloria...at this point NHC thought it was a 130mph monster as it approached the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks for dropping in.. Hope the storm is enjoyable for you! With Irene "underperforming" relative to intensity forecasts, I thought I'd take a look at the historical data. The insights from the data are consistent with what has been happening. Despite the data, the storm should not be taken lightly. It will create some significant problems. It will also be quite memorable for those who experience it in the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Many of the people here weren't even alive during Gloria and certainly weren't up watching Cheers that night. I was just talking to my old man...he said all stations ran with 130mph that night, was from NHC. I think you are right they revised it downward afterwards. Again though, perceptions for those of us alive and with memories of Gloria...at this point NHC thought it was a 130mph monster as it approached the outer banks. Yeah I think they were in hype/worry fest at NHC with a 945mb hurricane off the Carolinas heading toward NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Terrible track for Narragansett Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Terrible track for Narragansett Bay. surge off the GFS would rival 1938 in parts of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Many of the people here weren't even alive during Gloria and certainly weren't up watching Cheers that night. I was just talking to my old man...he said all stations ran with 130mph that night, was from NHC. I think you are right they revised it downward afterwards. Again though, perceptions for those of us alive and with memories of Gloria...at this point NHC thought it was a 130mph monster as it approached the outer banks. Very good points, Messenger. The NYC media were reporting similar information at the time. If I'm not mistaken, the storm was initially classified as Cat. 3 landfall on Long Island. It was falling apart rapidly at that time and its eye had ballooned in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS lanfalls in CT just east of HVN then tracks through Boston. It's been very consistent. Also the H5 low and the surface low decouple after landfall as it becomes ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's not my intention. This will be a big storm and it will have a temoundous impact. It's a very serious situation. The preparation undoubtably saved lives and thats a good thing. If hoping/rooting for this thing to fizzle out or misses us all together makes me a bad poster, so be it. I'd rather be a bad poster on a weather forum than see people get hurt and/or their property destroyed. My intent is not to inflame or troll here, but since a differing opinion is not welcome I'll just go. I hope you all enjoy the storm. You aren't a bad poster because you don't want damage, it is because your "call" of weakening and a TS is BECAUSE you don't want damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe this clip is wrong, but the BZ had it at 130mph at 33.5N 76W...has to be wrong..he must have been talking about gusts. Messenger, I believe you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What are we looking at for winds? not much change from what has been posted earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z is very fast. High tide destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z is very fast. High tide destroyer. yeah that comes in midday - coincides very well with midday high tides out here on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Terrible track for Narragansett Bay. luckly the ole hurricane barrier will be on lock down. PVD would be screwed w/o it. water marks still on buildings from before construction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Phil was right about the rains too. FF potential hasn't been talked about much but I'm sure that has to be a concern in places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fantastic news to come home to for lunch, winds down to 105, cloud tops are warming and Irene is weakening and might only be a Cat 1 at landfall on the OBX Looks like se ne should see some winds 50-75 miles and hour, while back hear low end tropical storm stuff with the eye passing well to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Many of the people here weren't even alive during Gloria and certainly weren't up watching Cheers that night. I was just talking to my old man...he said all stations ran with 130mph that night, was from NHC. I think you are right they revised it downward afterwards. Again though, perceptions for those of us alive and with memories of Gloria...at this point NHC thought it was a 130mph monster as it approached the outer banks. yeah...it was also 26 years ago. data was nothing like it is today...the concern with Gloria was warranted, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fantastic news to come home to for lunch, winds down to 105, cloud tops are warming and Irene is weakening and might only be a Cat 1 at landfall on the OBX Looks like se ne should see some winds 50-75 miles and hour, while back hear low end tropical storm stuff with the eye passing well to the east. What are you talking about. Are you trying to stir the pot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fantastic news to come home to for lunch, winds down to 105, cloud tops are warming and Irene is weakening and might only be a Cat 1 at landfall on the OBX Looks like se ne should see some winds 50-75 miles and hour, while back hear low end tropical storm stuff with the eye passing well to the east. Did cloud cottontails hack your account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isn't it an open question at this point whether it will be worse than Gloria or Bob ? Yes and no. When professionals here are posting graphics that show it has the potential and to have posts to the contrary that have no scientific backing I have to disagee. You can respectfully disagree but back it up with something concrete and scientific rather than opinion. That being said 12z GFS is a monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The eye has filled and tops have warmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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