free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene showing a little soft spot near the center. Eye reorganizing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fantastic news to come home to for lunch, winds down to 105, cloud tops are warming and Irene is weakening and might only be a Cat 1 at landfall on the OBX Looks like se ne should see some winds 50-75 miles and hour, while back hear low end tropical storm stuff with the eye passing well to the east. eye or what's left of it passes right over us on NAM and GFS....not sure where you are getting well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What are you talking about. Are you trying to stir the pot? Excuse me? I said the cane is down to 105.............which it is.............I said tops have warmed ................which they have. My hope is for this to be a high end cat 1 at landfall on obx and then continue to weaken and head east, or should I be hoping for 8 ft of water in my home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 eye or what's left of it passes right over us on NAM and GFS....not sure where you are getting well east gfs is east of Fairfield ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The eye has filled and tops have warmed. A met in the main thread said that max diurnal heating and latitudinal gain have made the tops warm. The storm is huge, were going to get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 12Z GFS is remarkably similar to it's previous run. A little beefier on precip I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Everyone here needs to take a damn chill pill. We're getting hit by a hurricane, sit back and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene showing a little soft spot near the center. Eye reorganizing? That's what I'm wondering too, if we're seeing it shed whatever was inhibiting it and we're about to see a pulse up. Per the last SST charts that were available it's about to go over water in the high 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Excuse me? I said the cane is down to 105.............which it is.............I said tops have warmed ................which they have. My hope is for this to be a high end cat 1 at landfall on obx and then continue to weaken and head east, or should I be hoping for 8 ft of water in my home? any talk of evacs down your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah...it was also 26 years ago. data was nothing like it is today...the concern with Gloria was warranted, imo. Parts of the south shore of long island had significant structural damage in Gloria and winds easily gusted to over 100 in this areas. In terms of wind damage in the northeast irene will be a pimple on both Gloria's and Bob's A$$. But storm surge damage is certainly intriguing if you don't own property along the immediate shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ryan, what are you thinking for rain in western CT? Maybe 12" worst-case scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 to folks inland a bit and removed from the wind threat some...definitely take the rain aspect seriously. probably starts tomorrow and doesn't end for someone until sunday night. qpf isn't modeled that high tomorrow but could envision that even being underdone in spots. then guidance pumping out 5 to 7" of rain sunday. even if that were right - which it won't be, it'll be higher - that's going to be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is very wet.......outside of 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's what I'm wondering too, if we're seeing it shed whatever was inhibiting it and we're about to see a pulse up. Per the last SST charts that were available it's about to go over water in the high 80s. Isn't it heading over the gulf stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 any talk of evacs down your way? I dont know I have to get back to work, shoring things up for clients and doing my last few cuts, expecting a surge here of 8 ft, but that was off old info, the storm HAS weakened despite some that choose not to believe it. If its 8 ft that puts water into my first floor and climbing the steps to the upstairs. I hoping the weakening and accelerating speed on models limits the piling of water into western li sound. It is what it is, everything of value will be moved to the second floor by tom am, mother nature will do what she wants. Hurricane party with some friends tom night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Man everybody needs to relax with the harsh speaking. Where are the moderators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not sure if someone already mentioned it, but Irene's rain shield has reached SC and NC. Nice to finally be able to track it on doppler radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 gfs is east of Fairfield ct? Yeah, looks like the track is right up thru C LI/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm no met, but my guess with the current core structure (or lack of one) the chances of Irene gaining strength are very small. Just a matter of now fast she weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's a good guess for peak wind gust in Worcester from this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's a good guess for peak wind gust in Worcester from this thing? 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah that comes in midday - coincides very well with midday high tides out here on the cape. Just jumped into the thread. Because of semi-diurnal inequality, the night-time highs are higher than the day-time highs. Day-time highs are a solid foot lower than the night-time highs. Not to say that it won't be significant, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isn't it heading over the gulf stream? It's either trying to reorganize or really struggling...looks like balls. Notice the dry air now not far from the center on the NE side. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 to folks inland a bit and removed from the wind threat some...definitely take the rain aspect seriously. probably starts tomorrow and doesn't end for someone until sunday night. qpf isn't modeled that high tomorrow but could envision that even being underdone in spots. then guidance pumping out 5 to 7" of rain sunday. even if that were right - which it won't be, it'll be higher - that's going to be serious. and the Ct River and it's tribs will be in flood stage long after the storm passes if the higher qpf's verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 to folks inland a bit and removed from the wind threat some...definitely take the rain aspect seriously. probably starts tomorrow and doesn't end for someone until sunday night. qpf isn't modeled that high tomorrow but could envision that even being underdone in spots. then guidance pumping out 5 to 7" of rain sunday. even if that were right - which it won't be, it'll be higher - that's going to be serious. No doubt.. just west of the center will get absolutely hammered with rain.. I might as well throw.my garden away lol.. I don't think a long range model can really hammer the qpf of a tropical system.. notice how on the gfs, the storms qpf actually strengthens as it gets to NE Not only the rain too, this is a hurricane lol even if it passes to your east, there will be good winds on the west side of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Last recon was up to 949 it looks like? Looks like she sucked up some dry air several hours ago. Will be interesting to see if the visible sat is playing tricks or if she is trying to hollow out an eye and maybe regroup. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendwh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/1330/AL092011_0826_1330_contour08.png surge/wave potential up to 5.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Last recon was up to 949 it looks like? Looks like she sucked up some dry air several hours ago. Will be interesting to see if the visible sat is playing tricks or if she is trying to hollow out an eye and maybe regroup. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html What's good about this storm is it has plenty of time to, I wouldn't say strengthen, but reorganize into a better system structurally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice NW jog the last few frames too! Really thought she was going to get her act together last night but she certainly is not today. My worst fears of a catastrophic New England event have greatly diminshed. Lots of power outages but little major structural damage in my opinion except for storm surge issues. Big hit but not the once in a lifetime event that I had feared last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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