phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I posted the other landfall in the model thread, but I'll put it here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I do not think the E trend is done considering the typical bias we see and also the trend in the short term between 06z and 12z of the more western models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Awesome map-- thanks, Phil! I feel like I would be cool with that if it verified, because MHX is square in the left eyewall. But the rightward end is of course concerning. Will it continue? That's the million dollar question of course... the model consensus has definitively shifted slightly to the right, but I'm still banking on the landfall location of the ECWMF. Some have mentioned that the system jogged eastward the last couple of passes, and believe it or not the 00z ECWMF had this rightward jog up to 12z... and just now, the latest recon indicates the storm jogged a bit west between the last recon observation... these are just wobbles of the inner eyewall as it starts to collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 early 06z guidance...I like the LI idea better....but we still cannot rule out big impact for NC...esp since the storm will be considerably stronger when its down there..so the left eyewall might produce some great conditions....we saw you score jackpot in Hurricane Dolly in Texas on the W semi-circle..though that storm did not have the latitude speed of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Go big or go home Given the bias of too far west for models in this time range, I think going big will be LI...but I could be wrong...maybe NC sees worse where he can get to. HSE is not accessible from what I have heard, so the mainland will have to do. I think LI or even RI/SE MA might be the best spot. If he could get to HSE, then that is the primo spot, but nobody will be allowed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Given the bias of too far west for models in this time range, I think going big will be LI...but I could be wrong...maybe NC sees worse where he can get to. HSE is not accessible from what I have heard, so the mainland will have to do. I think LI or even RI/SE MA might be the best spot. If he could get to HSE, then that is the primo spot, but nobody will be allowed there. Nor would you want to be in HSE... Isabel took out chunks of the Outer Banks in that area... and with Irene looming to be just as big you can bet we will see this image below be replayed in the days to come. Again I think I agree with you that NC has a slightly bigger risk, but the reward in terms of intensity is so much greater in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 So... My friend, Keith, and I have been driving all night and we've now safely passed the I95 metro cluster. It's daybreak and we're approaching Richmond, VA. My emotions have been a bit up and down all night. The 00Z GFS was a bit discouraging for those of use hunting for a red-meat Carolina landfall. But then I keep reminding myself that North Carolina's loss is Long Island's gain, and it would be ultra-cool to see a solid cyclone sail headlong into the latter. And Keith, being a lifelong Islander, is particularly keen to history happening in his backyard. There is a chance that we're going to get down to Morehead City, take a 6-hour nap, and then do an about-face and go right back up the I95. That sounds like a sucky prospect, but the bottom line is that we're playing this safe: we don't want to miss a big NC hit, so we decided it's better to be safe than sorry-- and if it looks like it'll be a miss down here, we have plenty of time to get back up to Long Island. The only downside is the 20 hours in the car and a lot of wasted gas. But whatevz-- we're cool with it. I just talked to Adam ad he gave me a pep talk. He warned me not to overreact to the 00Z GFS, and he still thinks MHX is where the jackpot is-- not Long Island. So that's the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You're about 5 hours ahead of me heading out around 9:30 from MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So... My friend, Keith, and I have been driving all night and we've now safely passed the I95 metro cluster. It's daybreak and we're approaching Richmond, VA. My emotions have been a bit up and down all night. The 00Z GFS was a bit discouraging for those of use hunting for a red-meat Carolina landfall. But then I keep reminding myself that North Carolina's loss is Long Island's gain, and it would be ultra-cool to see a solid cyclone sail headlong into the latter. And Keith, being a lifelong Islander, is particularly keen to history happening in his backyard. There is a chance that we're going to get down to Morehead City, take a 6-hour nap, and then do an about-face and go right back up the I95. That sounds like a sucky prospect, but the bottom line is that we're playing this safe: we don't want to miss a big NC hit, so we decided it's better to be safe than sorry-- and if it looks like it'll be a miss down here, we have plenty of time to get back up to Long Island. The only downside is the 20 hours in the car and a lot of wasted gas. But whatevz-- we're cool with it. I just talked to Adam ad he gave me a pep talk. He warned me not to overreact to the 00Z GFS, and he still thinks MHX is where the jackpot is-- not Long Island. So that's the story. Here's something to brighten up your morning, Josh, the 6z GFS came in 15-20 miles west of the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good luck and save travels Josh and Ellinwood, everyone else on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 More pep talk... the new hotness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 More pep talk... the new hotness... You mean that the center is nicking mainland NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You mean that the center is nicking mainland NC? You got it, chief. I like where you're heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You mean that the center is nicking mainland NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Omg!1! The 8 am EDT position is 0.1 degrees W of the 5 am position. So hawt!! I was just hoping it wouldn't lose anymore longitude, and it actually gained some. Made my mornin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just crossed into NC-- woo hoo! Making good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just crossed into NC-- woo hoo! Making good time. 119B should be your exit, 264/795 east, heard they have tweaked the traffic lights on 70 as you head east, so expect the timing to be good. Have fun man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 119B should be your exit, 264/795 east, heard they have tweaked the traffic lights on 70 as you head east, so expect the timing to be good. Have fun man! Yep, that's totally the route we're taking! In fact, just a half hour ago I was re-reading your posts from yesterday Re: this. Think we'll get in OK? I called the hotel again, and they said it's all cool-- no problems getting in. P.S. You excited for the 'cane? You riding it out in Greenville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yo. Here is the previous and new track. Obviously as I was telling you last night it had nudged E. Gonna be close.. Missed your call and give me a shout back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yep, that's totally the route we're taking! In fact, just a half hour ago I was re-reading your posts from yesterday Re: this. Think we'll get in OK? I called the hotel again, and they said it's all cool-- no problems getting in. P.S. You excited for the 'cane? You riding it out in Greenville? There shouldn't be any problems getting in...the only place they put roadblocks that I've ever seen are on the bridges to the barrier island. That said, there is a mandatory evacuation for visitors and non-residents for Carteret County...I don't think they enforce it very tightly but it has been a long time since I lived there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So... My friend, Keith, and I have been driving all night and we've now safely passed the I95 metro cluster. It's daybreak and we're approaching Richmond, VA. My emotions have been a bit up and down all night. The 00Z GFS was a bit discouraging for those of use hunting for a red-meat Carolina landfall. But then I keep reminding myself that North Carolina's loss is Long Island's gain, and it would be ultra-cool to see a solid cyclone sail headlong into the latter. And Keith, being a lifelong Islander, is particularly keen to history happening in his backyard. There is a chance that we're going to get down to Morehead City, take a 6-hour nap, and then do an about-face and go right back up the I95. That sounds like a sucky prospect, but the bottom line is that we're playing this safe: we don't want to miss a big NC hit, so we decided it's better to be safe than sorry-- and if it looks like it'll be a miss down here, we have plenty of time to get back up to Long Island. The only downside is the 20 hours in the car and a lot of wasted gas. But whatevz-- we're cool with it. I just talked to Adam ad he gave me a pep talk. He warned me not to overreact to the 00Z GFS, and he still thinks MHX is where the jackpot is-- not Long Island. So that's the story. Cool update, Adam is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice work Josh! Looking forward to your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yep, that's totally the route we're taking! In fact, just a half hour ago I was re-reading your posts from yesterday Re: this. If you're looking to pig out for lunch, you can grab some of the best BBQ in NC at Wilbur's, which is on US-70 just east of Goldsboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FYI: Starting at 1 p.m. Friday, timing of traffic signals on U.S. 70 in Carteret, Craven and Lenoir counties; N.C. 58 in Emerald Isle; and N.C. 24 in Cape Carteret will favor movement of traffic on the main roads away from the coast, according to a DOT release. (Note: Lenoir County begins about 15 miles east of Goldsboro.) Also, here's a link to NC DOT's mobile website for up-to-date traffic info: http://www.ncdot.gov/m/#traffic/default.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest fix looking good. Still a hair to the left. Model watching is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest fix looking good. Still a hair to the left. Model watching is over... what are latest coords? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 what are latest coords? 30.35N 77.35W I'm with Adam here, it will be very close to MHX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good luck Josh. Looks like it could be right near MHX over even overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So far, so good - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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