HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 00z Euro: Morehead/OBX at 2am Sunday (78hr). Slower and W. Ugh, here's the deal: for me, there is a world of difference between Morehead City and OBX. One would be awesome, one would suck. It's not a huge distance in terms of miles, but the difference is enormous in terms of what can be experienced. I hate that it's so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ugh, here's the deal: for me, there is a world of difference between Morehead City and OBX. One would be awesome, one would suck. It's not a huge distance in terms of miles, but the difference is enormous in terms of what can be experienced. I hate that it's so close. Be careful on the OBX dude, you are dealing with what is basically a glorified sand bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Be careful on the OBX dude, you are dealing with what is basically a glorified sand bar. Exactly. Also, they close it off. Morehead City would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Exactly. Also, they close it off. Morehead City would be awesome. Yep, they do not mess around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We are heading out tomorrow. Heading just east of Morehead City to a town called town Beaufort. Have a friend who has parents who own a beach house on a sound a little ways off the coast. Well built home and should be a pretty ideal location. Good luck if the GFDL verifies you are gonna be there awhile LOL. Also that area gets SEVERE flooding on a ENE/NE wind so if your soundside plan on 4-6 ft of water at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ugh, here's the deal: for me, there is a world of difference between Morehead City and OBX. One would be awesome, one would suck. It's not a huge distance in terms of miles, but the difference is enormous in terms of what can be experienced. I hate that it's so close. 0z Euro 8/25 75h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z Euro 8/25 75h Well-- that is kind of enticing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z Euro 8/25 75h So this is approx 7:00am EDT on Sunday, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So this is approx 7:00am EDT on Sunday, correct? 11pm Saturday night I think, 03:00z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 11pm Saturday night I think 75 hours from 0z 26 Aug 11 -> 300hrs GMT 28 Aug 2011 -> 11:00pm EDT 27 Aug 2011, you are correct: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=75+hours+from+1200AM+GMT+Thursday%2C+August+25%2C+2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well-- that is kind of enticing! Yep I wont have to chase at all if that verifies lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What a difference a day makes in terms of the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Exactly. Also, they close it off. Morehead City would be awesome. OBX is a no-go for this one, whether it hits there or not (for me, anyway). Way too dangerous. I'd be surprised if chasers DO end up going there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 OBX is a no-go for this one, whether it hits there or not (for me, anyway). Way too dangerous. I'd be surprised if chasers DO end up going there. Yeah OBX gonna be scary bad this go round, gonna lose lots of houses pretty much worse case all around if EURO/GFDL are accurate. People gotta understand that all that land out there ALL OF IT goes underwater and a lot of the inner banks are going to go under as well. Once the storm is over its going to take a day or so for the water to drain out and most all roads are gonna be impassable. If you guys do go plan on being thee for several days without power etc,,,,,all the major roads into and out of Morehead/Beaufort go through a low lying swamp and will be flooded not to mention all the trees and such that are gonna drop 10 years of drought and no storms means lots of trees are going to go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 OK... Scott747 and I had an exchange, and we decided my best course of action is simply to get to the E Coast and worry which way I'm heading later on. So I'm flying into NYC tomorrow, where I'll have dinner with my mother and decide whether I'm heading 1) S to NC, 2) E to LI, or 3) ENE to RI/MA. The bottom line is that all three zones are still in play for me. My desire is simply a clean, straight-off-the-ocean landfall point. The fact that it still isn't clear whether Morehead City, NC, or Chatham, MA, is a better location is completely absurd-- and yet perfectly normal when a cyclone approaches the American E Coast from this darn angle. The complexity of this setup is... disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 OK... Scott747 and I had an exchange, and we decided my best course of action is simply to get to the E Coast and worry which way I'm heading later on. So I'm flying into NYC tomorrow, where I'll have dinner with my mother and decide whether I'm heading 1) S to NC, 2) E to LI, or 3) ENE to RI/MA. The bottom line is that all three zones are still in play for me. My desire is simply a clean, straight-off-the-ocean landfall point. The fact that it still isn't clear whether Morehead City, NC, or Chatham, MA, is a better location is completely absurd-- and yet perfectly normal when a cyclone approaches the American E Coast from this darn angle. The complexity of this setup is... disturbing. It's actually quite stimulating-- I love looking at the old analogs-- so much stuff has happened here that people have totally forgotten about. I agree that planning for something like this can be exhausting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah OBX gonna be scary bad this go round, gonna lose lots of houses pretty much worse case all around if EURO/GFDL are accurate. People gotta understand that all that land out there ALL OF IT goes underwater and a lot of the inner banks are going to go under as well. Once the storm is over its going to take a day or so for the water to drain out and most all roads are gonna be impassable. If you guys do go plan on being thee for several days without power etc,,,,,all the major roads into and out of Morehead/Beaufort go through a low lying swamp and will be flooded not to mention all the trees and such that are gonna drop 10 years of drought and no storms means lots of trees are going to go...... All good points. Jason knows the Morehead City area fairly well, so I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yep. But are you honestly suggesting I'll need it? I don't see any credible model that far W, and even with the W trending, that just seems like a big jump at this point. (Your own forecast doesn't even show a mainland-NC hit. ) Thoughts? I think you will based on the latest ECWMF... Its not just the trend I'm paying attention to, but my track takes the second landfall location at Atlantic City, NJ with it moving further inland after that. I'm not all that optimistic now that things will trend back to the east, given what the recent modeling is doing adding in a new vort max to the mix to allow the slight leftward bend. Its a good think you have another 24 hours to decide, because that will make a world of difference as the shortwave in question comes into radiosonde network in north america. Ugh, here's the deal: for me, there is a world of difference between Morehead City and OBX. One would be awesome, one would suck. It's not a huge distance in terms of miles, but the difference is enormous in terms of what can be experienced. I hate that it's so close. It might turn into the only play if there is a leftward turn after NC landfall, unless you want to chase in the Chesapeake OK... Scott747 and I had an exchange, and we decided my best course of action is simply to get to the E Coast and worry which way I'm heading later on. So I'm flying into NYC tomorrow, where I'll have dinner with my mother and decide whether I'm heading 1) S to NC, 2) E to LI, or 3) ENE to RI/MA. The bottom line is that all three zones are still in play for me. My desire is simply a clean, straight-off-the-ocean landfall point. The fact that it still isn't clear whether Morehead City, NC, or Chatham, MA, is a better location is completely absurd-- and yet perfectly normal when a cyclone approaches the American E Coast from this darn angle. The complexity of this setup is... disturbing. I think you also need to weigh the fact that Irene will be significantly more intense in NC than in MA. Even if you get a direct hit in MA you might only end up with TS force winds, while if you get a glancing blow in NC, you could still get into hurricane force winds per the most recent guidance. I really think the NC option needs to be looked at more carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 OK... Scott747 and I had an exchange, and we decided my best course of action is simply to get to the E Coast and worry which way I'm heading later on. So I'm flying into NYC tomorrow, where I'll have dinner with my mother and decide whether I'm heading 1) S to NC, 2) E to LI, or 3) ENE to RI/MA. The bottom line is that all three zones are still in play for me. My desire is simply a clean, straight-off-the-ocean landfall point. The fact that it still isn't clear whether Morehead City, NC, or Chatham, MA, is a better location is completely absurd-- and yet perfectly normal when a cyclone approaches the American E Coast from this darn angle. The complexity of this setup is... disturbing. You just can't wait until the next one, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 OK... Scott747 and I had an exchange, and we decided my best course of action is simply to get to the E Coast and worry which way I'm heading later on. So I'm flying into NYC tomorrow, where I'll have dinner with my mother and decide whether I'm heading 1) S to NC, 2) E to LI, or 3) ENE to RI/MA. Sounds like a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think you also need to weigh the fact that Irene will be significantly more intense in NC than in MA. Even if you get a direct hit in MA you might only end up with TS force winds, while if you get a glancing blow in NC, you could still get into hurricane force winds per the most recent guidance. I really think the NC option needs to be looked at more carefully. I'm leaving the option open-- so I'm looking at it as carefully as any other scenario right now. Honestly, hanging in Morehead City while a Cat 3 passes 30 mi to the E is not my idea of a worthy endeavor. I would much rather take a Cat 1 on the chin in E MA and at least get in the center, take a pressure reading, etc. Getting in the center has become sort of a sport for me-- and I like hitting the bull's-eye. Therefore, a Cat-1 direct hit has more value to me than a Cat-3, left-side brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm leaving the option open-- so I'm looking at it as carefully as any other scenario right now. Honestly, hanging in Morehead City while a Cat 3 passes 30 mi to the E is not my idea of a worthy endeavor. I would much rather take a Cat 1 on the chin in E MA and at least get in the center, take a pressure reading, etc. Getting in the center has become sort of a sport for me-- and I like hitting the bull's-eye. Therefore, a Cat-1 direct hit has more value to me than a Cat-3, left-side brush. Ok fair enough... I see your argument now. We are not necessarily looking for max winds, its more of a "get in the center" approach. In that case, I hope things trend west for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ok fair enough... I see your argument now. We are not necessarily looking for max winds, its more of a "get in the center" approach. Well... It's both kinda (although you usually can't have both). But here's the deal: you'll experience stronger winds near or to the right of an 85-kt 'cane accelerating to the N than you'd experience 20-30 mi left of the center of a 100-kt 'cane. So the SE MA solution has its appeal over the stronger Hatteras brush-- at least for me. Winds of 100 kt do me little good when they're happening way E, over the water. In that case, I hope things trend west for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 OK... Scott747 and I had an exchange, and we decided my best course of action is simply to get to the E Coast and worry which way I'm heading later on. So I'm flying into NYC tomorrow, where I'll have dinner with my mother and decide whether I'm heading 1) S to NC, 2) E to LI, or 3) ENE to RI/MA. The bottom line is that all three zones are still in play for me. My desire is simply a clean, straight-off-the-ocean landfall point. The fact that it still isn't clear whether Morehead City, NC, or Chatham, MA, is a better location is completely absurd-- and yet perfectly normal when a cyclone approaches the American E Coast from this darn angle. The complexity of this setup is... disturbing. If you go to LI, PM me....I could try to get you on-air this weekend calling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 If you go to LI, PM me....I could try to get you on-air this weekend calling in. OK, sure, Scotty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well... It's both kinda (although you usually can't have both). But here's the deal: you'll experience stronger winds near or to the right of an 85-kt 'cane accelerating to the N than you'd experience 20-30 mi left of the center of a 100-kt 'cane. So the SE MA solution has its appeal over the stronger Hatteras brush-- at least for me. Winds of 100 kt do me little good when they're happening way E, over the water. I think its pretty unlikely that there will be a 85 knot cane in SE MA unless its rapidly accelerating like Hurricane Bob. If anything the models have trended slower over the last 12 hours. I strongly believe anything post NC impact is going to be on the Cat 1 scale for max intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think its pretty unlikely that there will be a 85 knot cane in SE MA unless its rapidly accelerating like Hurricane Bob. If anything the models have trended slower over the last 12 hours. I strongly believe anything post NC impact is going to be on the Cat 1 scale for max intensity. My point remains, even if it's a 75-kt 'cane. Hurricane wind fields are highly asymmetric once they turn N and start to pick up speed-- even with majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My point remains, even if it's a 75-kt 'cane. Hurricane wind fields are highly asymmetric once they turn N and start to pick up speed-- even with majors. Yep...unfortunately for you if it takes a Euro track you're just going to get a crappy wind/rain storm up in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yep...unfortunately for you if it takes a Euro track you're just going to get a crappy wind/rain storm up in LI. Well, if it takes the Euro track, I won't waste my time up N-- I'll be in Morehead City getting a real 'cane. I believe things will become clearer soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well, if it takes the Euro track, I won't waste my time up N-- I'll be in Morehead City getting a real 'cane. I believe things will become clearer soon. Hopefully they do...this might be a Gloria-type scenario where it brushes a few spots before it makes final landfall somewhere. The trend west is noticeable though...just not sure it holds in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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