CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks good for you Rick. Still think I'll see some snow. I think you will at the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Too bad you weren't 31 like me ....you could be 45 now. Cool. Bank on Mar 17-20 while I'm in D.C I wish I was older then 3 for the Blizzard of '97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I knew someone would take that bait......goldilocks it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I knew someone would take that bait......goldilocks it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What we really don't want is a big +NAO like we have now; we're really suffering for it. That's why so many storms are tracking to our west, as well as the seasonal shift. New England was just unlucky in 09-10, it could have been a huge season like 57-58 and 68-69. Both those winters were awesome down here as well with the west-based block. Unfortunately looks like any ridging in the arctic will stay to the east of Greenland for the rest of this cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Cool. Bank on Mar 17-20 while I'm in D.C I wish I was older then 3 for the Blizzard of '97. Only day I ever played hooky from work. Drove to Killington and enjoyed 3 feet of spring cement. The "double diamonds" (ha) were the only option since you needed a lot of steep to get any speed. Fun! Only 3?! wow. Good work this winter on posting all the data from Shrewsbury. I moved from there 7 months ago and realized just how BORING the weather is in Denver! Let me know if you want snow data from 2002-2010, it's collecting dust at the bottom of a box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What we really don't want is a big +NAO like we have now; we're really suffering for it. That's why so many storms are tracking to our west, as well as the seasonal shift. New England was just unlucky in 09-10, it could have been a huge season like 57-58 and 68-69. Both those winters were awesome down here as well with the west-based block. Unfortunately looks like any ridging in the arctic will stay to the east of Greenland for the rest of this cold season. Very illuminating post...thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That 4/1/97 storm actually wasn't cement in the Catskills. It was rather powdery and drifted a lot. 37 inches ar 2100' about 10 miles from where I lived at the time. I went there every day that week and x country skiied. Only day I ever played hooky from work. Drove to Killington and enjoyed 3 feet of spring cement. The "double diamonds" (ha) were the only option since you needed a lot of steep to get any speed. Fun! Only 3?! wow. Good work this winter on posting all the data from Shrewsbury. I moved from there 7 months ago and realized just how BORING the weather is in Denver! Let me know if you want snow data from 2002-2010, it's collecting dust at the bottom of a box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What we really don't want is a big +NAO like we have now; we're really suffering for it. That's why so many storms are tracking to our west, as well as the seasonal shift. New England was just unlucky in 09-10, it could have been a huge season like 57-58 and 68-69. Both those winters were awesome down here as well with the west-based block. Unfortunately looks like any ridging in the arctic will stay to the east of Greenland for the rest of this cold season. Climo and common sense. nyc has had an incredible run the last 8 years, 4yrs in a row with 40+ ,back to back historic seasons, southern ct especially west of the ct river had continuous snowpack for nearly 60- days. THe storms are not tracking west, ala cutters driving up the thumb of Michigan, the are tracking right over my anal cavity. Its been an amazing winter, I try and stay realistic based on my location, but even this next storm will track just east of my location, an ounce of blocking would do the job, but thats why we have climo. law of averages and common sense, if not, nyc would be getting multiple 100+ seasons, it just does not happen. In my opinion there is one good storm left for sne, it wont favor you or I, but from mt mossup to kev east and north, one more, probably around St Patricks day, it loves to snow around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 27/17, going out for ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What we really don't want is a big +NAO like we have now; we're really suffering for it. That's why so many storms are tracking to our west, as well as the seasonal shift. New England was just unlucky in 09-10, it could have been a huge season like 57-58 and 68-69. Both those winters were awesome down here as well with the west-based block. Unfortunately looks like any ridging in the arctic will stay to the east of Greenland for the rest of this cold season. The west has been horrible, you can probably use that as the excuse. I don't necessarily blame the NAO being positive, but view this as a contributor to the storm track. This is more for your area, as the area north of PVD-PYM has had a decent February. The pattern has been more hostile during the last 2-3 weeks of the month, but we still managed to squeak by with climo or just a hair under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I knew someone would take that bait......goldilocks it is. BS. You walked right into that one.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 BS. You walked right into that one.lol Swear to god.....knew someone would light that up, but thought "ah, fook it"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Swear to god.....knew someone would light that up, but thought "ah, fook it"... Sometimes it's fun to leave it out there, and see how sicko will twist the quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just noticed the Ukie has been #1 over the last month for D5 H5 scores narrowly defeating the EC...more proof that the EC has been in a relative "rut". I also noticed there's now a GFS X in the plot for the most recent day and it was much better than the Op GFS 0z today. Anyone know off hand what the changes in this parallel run are versus the current op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just noticed the Ukie has been #1 over the last month for D5 H5 scores narrowly defeating the EC...more proof that the EC has been in a relative "rut". I also noticed there's now a GFS X in the plot for the most recent day and it was much better than the Op GFS 0z today. Anyone know off hand what the changes in this parallel run are versus the current op? I'm sure it has to do with the latest -PNA regime and the euro possibly being too generous with troughing in the sw. I'm not quite sure of any changes with the "X" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 What we really don't want is a big +NAO like we have now; we're really suffering for it. That's why so many storms are tracking to our west, as well as the seasonal shift. New England was just unlucky in 09-10, it could have been a huge season like 57-58 and 68-69. Both those winters were awesome down here as well with the west-based block. Unfortunately looks like any ridging in the arctic will stay to the east of Greenland for the rest of this cold season. -PNA is killing us more right now...its so negative. We can get away with a +NAO if the PNA isn't ridiculous with the SW troughing. NAO being negative would definitely help and try to push the storm track south, but the magnitude of the PNA has been so extreme so a near neutral or even +NAO can't do anything to stop it. But essentially both oceans are against us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 18Z GFS occludes that next system (later week) pretty good - to the point where GC and this area have mostly snow/freezing p types. We keep finding ways to salvage things from a lousy pattern it seems. Now lets just flip to a Nina Negative NAO after the 20th and we can keep the party going through the first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 -PNA is killing us more right now...its so negative. We can get away with a +NAO if the PNA isn't ridiculous with the SW troughing. NAO being negative would definitely help and try to push the storm track south, but the magnitude of the PNA has been so extreme so a near neutral or even +NAO can't do anything to stop it. But essentially both oceans are against us right now. Yeah that's the killer imo, not the NAO...although the NAO is not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 The 18Z GFS occludes that next system (later week) pretty good - to the point where GC and this area have mostly snow/freezing p types. We keep finding ways to salvage things from a lousy pattern it seems. Now lets just flip to a Nina Negative NAO after the 20th and we can keep the party going through the first week of April. I'd wait for this next system first before declaring "salvaging" anything...though you are certainly in a much better position to try and get something out of it than anyone in all of SNE. Euro is pretty crappy even all the way out to you but you might pick up a quick 2-4" at the end. I'd really just like to avoid a ton of rain with temps well into the 40s and 50s but its starting to look inevitable. The GFS tries to get interesting at 6z and 12z but it really has no support whatsoever and 18z started warming pretty good. I guess the Ukie was still a bit strung out with wave #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i cannot imagine another march with just an inch or two of snow....the last march with normal snowfall was in 2007 here..even in 08 and 09 they were slightly below normal...the last above normal snowfall was back in 2005 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Does anyone have a map or PNS of the April 1997 blizzard? I was in Queens and only had an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just noticed the Ukie has been #1 over the last month for D5 H5 scores narrowly defeating the EC...more proof that the EC has been in a relative "rut". I also noticed there's now a GFS X in the plot for the most recent day and it was much better than the Op GFS 0z today. Anyone know off hand what the changes in this parallel run are versus the current op? ... In that case... here's what the UKMET has in store for Kevin and all others holding onto dreams of winter ... from off the 12z runs today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s70kgI4M5Jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd wait for this next system first before declaring "salvaging" anything...though you are certainly in a much better position to try and get something out of it than anyone in all of SNE. Euro is pretty crappy even all the way out to you but you might pick up a quick 2-4" at the end. I'd really just like to avoid a ton of rain with temps well into the 40s and 50s but its starting to look inevitable. The GFS tries to get interesting at 6z and 12z but it really has no support whatsoever and 18z started warming pretty good. I guess the Ukie was still a bit strung out with wave #2. You think this goose is cooked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You think this goose is cooked? Its not looking too good. I suppose we could still get fortunate and get a couple of inches on the back end, but all in all, this looks like a big snow pack reducer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 BOX has an epic deluge in their AFD... Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Its not looking too good. I suppose we could still get fortunate and get a couple of inches on the back end, but all in all, this looks like a big snow pack reducer. Come to the dark side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Come to the dark side. Today is the last day of 20" depth I think. We should fall below that tomorrow. The storm after Monday is starting to look a bit colder on guidance, so that could become a trackable event. Still a ways out though and plenty can go to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Come to the dark side. Search your feelings. You know it to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Today is the last day of 20" depth I think. We should fall below that tomorrow. The storm after Monday is starting to look a bit colder on guidance, so that could become a trackable event. Still a ways out though and plenty can go to crap. Your folks raised such an optimistic kid. Sounds like you need a cookie and some chocolate milk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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