CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's better than 34* and rain. It's pretty clear that we aren't going to build on the pack and I'm sick of the 32.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 rain and pics of Will's mailbox encased in an igloo, followed by 5* nights. I'll take anything else other than that, at this point. LOL. Well it's March and time for his area to shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 LOL. Well it's March and time for his area to shine. The only thing shining for the foreseeable future are sne caskets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's better than 34* and rain. It's pretty clear that we aren't going to build on the pack and I'm sick of the 32.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 rain and pics of Will's mailbox encased in an igloo, followed by 5* nights. I'll take anything else other than that, at this point. AMEN brother, let sping spung, then out of nowhere around March 17th, an absolute wet snowbomb crushes everyone from 3 miles ne of tubes across all of sne with the exception of the berks, the coastal plain gets buried ne winds rip 40+ and temps hover around 31. Meanwhile MRG melts, and the codo crusher is gone withing 4 days, and we head straight to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think we pull off one more storm somehow. If we don't, then it was a great winter. But 2 straight Marches without 1"? This pattern has totally sucked since early February. NAO blocking has completely broken down, Pacific is a nasty mess with low pressures all over the NW Coast, cold air only comes in behind the storms, etc. After the sheer epic experience of December/January, the 2nd half of winter has laid an absolute turd. It hasn't even been that mild either, just a succession of rainstorms followed by chilly nights that slowly destroy everyone's snowpack. March 2011 is starting to look a lot like March 2010. There's another rainstorm right behind this one with the Colorado low forming and tracking towards the Lakes, looks like another heavy QPF producer with limited cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Probably not far from you will do well, unfortunately. If the boundary sets up along the cordillera (for Tip) spine there could be quite a sfc temp boundary that sets up. SE winds in the warm sector pumping the 40s/50s through S NH and SNE and then the low level cold bottled up to the west of the higher elevations with a little upslope cooling/precip enhancement on the western ridges as well.At least the EC had a sizable shift SE from 00z. I need another shift like that come 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 This pattern has totally sucked since early February. NAO blocking has completely broken down, Pacific is a nasty mess with low pressures all over the NW Coast, cold air only comes in behind the storms, etc. After the sheer epic experience of December/January, the 2nd half of winter has laid an absolute turd. It hasn't even been that mild either, just a succession of rainstorms followed by chilly nights that slowly destroy everyone's snowpack. March 2011 is starting to look a lot like March 2010. There's another rainstorm right behind this one with the Colorado low forming and tracking towards the Lakes, looks like another heavy QPF producer with limited cold air. A lot of people in the interior (even in MA) had above normal snowfall for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 AMEN brother, let sping spung, then out of nowhere around March 17th, an absolute wet snowbomb crushes everyone from 3 miles ne of tubes across all of sne with the exception of the berks, the coastal plain gets buried ne winds rip 40+ and temps hover around 31. Meanwhile MRG melts, and the codo crusher is gone withing 4 days, and we head straight to summer. I'm hoping the -NAO comes back for the last 10 days of March as VAWXMAN and JB have discussed. That could give us a chance for one last coastal with the cold anomalies over Canada helping our cause. However, every time someone has said the blocking is returning, it's been delayed. We've had a +AO/+NAO dominate since early February, let's face it, the uber-blocking pattern is done with this ENSO state dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 AMEN brother, let sping spung, then out of nowhere around March 17th, an absolute wet snowbomb crushes everyone from 3 miles ne of tubes across all of sne with the exception of the berks, the coastal plain gets buried ne winds rip 40+ and temps hover around 31. Meanwhile MRG melts, and the codo crusher is gone withing 4 days, and we head straight to summer. I honestly favor this scenario...but as of now, be done with it, already. Nothing worse than rainers and 5* mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 If the boundary sets up along the cordillera (for Tip) spine there could be quite a sfc temp boundary that sets up. SE winds in the warm sector pumping the 40s/50s through S NH and SNE and then the low level cold bottled up to the west of the higher elevations with a little upslope cooling/precip enhancement on the western ridges as well. At least the EC had a sizable shift SE from 00z. I need another shift like that come 00z. I thought about that....it's interesting. Even by March standards..that boundary should have a very strong temp contrast. They still can happen during this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A lot of people in the interior (even in MA) had above normal snowfall for Feb. Yea, Feb was fine....it just wasn't epic like Jan. But THIS PATTERN NOW blows, hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I honestly favor this scenario...but as of now, be done with it, already. Nothing worse than rainers and 5* mornings. Ray, I agree with you 100% either snow, or sping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ray, I agree with you 100% either snow, or sping. Yes, I realize that spring for me includes alot of 50* and drizzle, but I don't care....just rid me of the frigid morinings and cold rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Ray, I agree with you 100% either snow, or sping. Well you live in tropical CT with your green grass showing and maple trees budding. If I was in your shoes I'd be cheering on the warmth too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just think how lucky we were to get that blocking in Dec and Jan, or else the entire winter could have been like this sh** show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 By Monday morning, you'll need it for 20, with that middle center full of 151, large enough to take a bath in. As long as it's on fire! Yep, looks to be quite a ride this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well you live in tropical CT with your green grass showing and maple trees budding. If I was in your shoes I'd be cheering on the warmth too. We had a great winter!!!!! Less than two inches shy of 70 for the year. Its supposed to snow up there this time of year, but, its going to piss rain, that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just think how lucky we were to get that blocking in Dec and Jan, or else the entire winter could have been like this sh** show. I thought a -NAO doesn't mean snow....say it with me.... Sorry John...had to do it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just think how lucky we were to get that blocking in Dec and Jan, or else the entire winter could have been like this sh** show. Well ya think Captain Obvious? LOL just mess in, man I wanted to b**ch slap those folks who were pissing about the Neg NAO in Dec, just made me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18z GFS is already slower with the northern stream than 12z. I don't think that bodes well for my backyard, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I think we're good for 10-20" more, but it won't benefit this pack any. I don't care about the pack at this point, its March. I honestly would rather it be in the 30s and 40s in March even if its not going to snow. I'm mostly inside at school, and if I'm outside its most likely for skiing where 30s and 40s are nice. No need for warmth in March, we have 5 more months for that. I hope your right about 10-20". I'll take the 10" at this point, I just don't want a shut-out. Any particular time period you think has potential? This pattern has totally sucked since early February. NAO blocking has completely broken down, Pacific is a nasty mess with low pressures all over the NW Coast, cold air only comes in behind the storms, etc. After the sheer epic experience of December/January, the 2nd half of winter has laid an absolute turd. It hasn't even been that mild either, just a succession of rainstorms followed by chilly nights that slowly destroy everyone's snowpack. March 2011 is starting to look a lot like March 2010. There's another rainstorm right behind this one with the Colorado low forming and tracking towards the Lakes, looks like another heavy QPF producer with limited cold air. I'll keep looking at this board and the models for snow threats until around my birthday (3/31). Many people said this December that January looked bad, and it wasn't bad, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I don't care about the pack at this point, its March. I honestly would rather it be in the 30s and 40s in March even if its not going to snow. I'm mostly inside at school, and if I'm outside its most likely for skiing where 30s and 40s are nice. No need for warmth in March, we have 5 more months for that. I hope your right about 10-20". I'll take the 10" at this point, I just don't want a shut-out. Any particular time period you think has potential? I'll keep looking at this board and the models for snow threats until around my birthday (3/31). Many people said this December that January looked bad, and it wasn't bad, to say the least. Well hope the GFS ensembles are right, because the EC ensembles are mild in the 11-15 day. I don't really see anything of interest at all, but by mid to late month, it becomes very difficult to try and figure out if the pattern is "good" or not because you start to have seasonal shortening of wavelengths with cutoffs galore. The GFS ensembles had no shortages of arctic highs building south, so I guess people can hang their hat on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 18z run ... toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well hope the GFS ensembles are right, because the EC ensembles are mild in the 11-15 day. I don't really see anything of interest at all, but by mid to late month, it becomes very difficult to try and figure out if the pattern is "good" or not because you start to have seasonal shortening of wavelengths with cutoffs galore. The GFS ensembles had no shortages of arctic highs building south, so I guess people can hang their hat on that. None of the models really show a sustained -NAO/-AO, however. That's my clue the winter is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well hope the GFS ensembles are right, because the EC ensembles are mild in the 11-15 day. I don't really see anything of interest at all, but by mid to late month, it becomes very difficult to try and figure out if the pattern is "good" or not because you start to have seasonal shortening of wavelengths with cutoffs galore. The GFS ensembles had no shortages of arctic highs building south, so I guess people can hang their hat on that. Good News . Big April on the way Big Big April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 I thought a -NAO doesn't mean snow....say it with me.... Sorry John...had to do it...lol. Still doesn't - the point is whether people see an -NAO and go into goodie goodie for us auto-pilot. That's that mistake - and the point that isn't going across for some reason. The reason it isn't going across is because folks don't seem to understand the deeper meteorological reasoning, say they ignore it and slip back into the same vamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Congrats First Connecticut Lake and Jackman. I get ORH's ice storm on this run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Congrats First Connecticut Lake and Jackman. I get ORH's ice storm on this run. lol lol, Jackman gets pounded.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I thought a -NAO doesn't mean snow....say it with me.... Sorry John...had to do it...lol. Well ya think Captain Obvious? LOL just mess in, man I wanted to b**ch slap those folks who were pissing about the Neg NAO in Dec, just made me cringe. Well, it's fact that having is very neg is not optimal for our lat, but it's better than this sh**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Still doesn't - the point is whether people see an -NAO and go into goodie goodie for us auto-pilot. That's that mistake - and the point that isn't going across for some reason. The reason it isn't going across is because folks don't seem to understand the deeper meteorological reasoning, say they ignore it and slip back into the same vamp. Some ignore deeper meteorological facts presented to justify their hypothesis too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Well, it's fact that having is very neg is not optimal for our lat, but it's better than this sh**. Your latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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