Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 gfs like the nam now does not bring measurable precip into ct or mass until sunday early evening, enjoy the weekend!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Greens get smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A foot (edit 18 inches) of heavy wet snow in ALB ...we'll frame this run for posterity. LOL But someone may get smoked here..maybe it will end up being the Dacks ..who knows. Greens get smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Apparently I'm the one that gets the snow bomb on the new GFS, but I'd be afraid it will trend more west like the NAM on future runs. 2 pretty distinct different camps here, Nam tracks it west of the Apps, GFS tracks it east of the apps hugging the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Does anyone recall if the 0Z Euro was more like the GFS or the NAM? 2 pretty distinct different camps here, Nam tracks it west of the Apps, GFS tracks it east of the apps hugging the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Does anyone recall if the 0Z Euro was more like the GFS or the NAM? A compromise...a bit closer to the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 So we can almost bank it then that the GFS is not done trending.... 12Z RGEM more NAM-like also I think. This could be a big March dump for central NY etc.... probably too far east here I think. A compromise...a bit closer to the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 A compromise...a bit closer to the NAM though. Euro takes the low off Cape Cod and the NAM while the NAM is over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 And JB tweets: GFS looks too far east with second wave Sun night and Monday. Test of winter TStorm rule for interior ne, not coastal plain NJ south [/url] Euro takes the low off Cape Cod and the NAM while the NAM is over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Euro takes the low off Cape Cod and the NAM while the NAM is over NJ I'm comparing the 72hr 00z Euro prog to the 84 progs of the 12z GFS and 12z NAM. It looks closer to the 12z NAM than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm comparing the 72hr 00z Euro prog to the 84 progs of the 12z GFS and 12z NAM. It looks closer to the 12z NAM than the 12z GFS. There's your problem. The 72hr 00z Euro doesn't match the forecast time of the 84hr progs of the 12z runs. It's the 96hr 00z Euro that you want to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 There's your problem. The 72hr 00z Euro doesn't match the forecast time of the 84hr progs of the 12z runs. It's the 96hr 00z Euro that you want to look at lol...geeze that's pretty bad. Thanks. Since that's the case...I agree it is closer to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 There's your problem. The 72hr 00z Euro doesn't match the forecast time of the 84hr progs of the 12z runs. It's the 96hr 00z Euro that you want to look at Just went back and looked at the 0z Euro, And it matches up with the GFS, Nam is way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hmm I still bet the Euro comes west some.... RGEM is more NAM-like. But I'd be thrilled if the GFS is correct..I could deal with 18 inches of snow. lol...geeze that's pretty bad. Thanks. Since that's the case...I agree it is closer to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hmm I still bet the Euro comes west some.... RGEM is more NAM-like. But I'd be thrilled if the GFS is correct..I could deal with 18 inches of snow. Its going to have to be one or the other for a track, Its not tracking over the Appalachains, Right now i would be leaning more towards the GFS/EURO combo, We will see where the Doc goes in another hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Apparently I'm the one that gets the snow bomb on the new GFS, but I'd be afraid it will trend more west like the NAM on future runs. I could deal the rain on Sunday if this is how Monday goes down... can you say SN+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Seriously PF. I'll take .75 inches of rain with THAT as snow afterwards. Plus with no freeze up BEFORE the snow starts we will not even crust up underneath. Actually were this play out as such we'd pretty much be set for spring skiing. A deep wetted snowpack that would just peel away corn layer by corn layer. OHHHHH I love me some corn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Green gets smoked! righteous! (Yeah, we know, alcohol is your drug of choice.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 righteous! (Yeah, we know, alcohol is your drug of choice.) How little you know oh wise one, how little you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Hmm I still bet the Euro comes west some.... RGEM is more NAM-like. But I'd be thrilled if the GFS is correct..I could deal with 18 inches of snow. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's a common bias for the Canadian. I was pulled away for a moment, but I was going to say earlier that the NAM does resemble the Euro in the 500mb height pattern, just phase shifted west, so something to keep an eye on. It's also worth noting that ONLY ONE GEFS member takes the low over NJ. ALL others drive it off the coast, and either near the Cape with an interior snow bomb, or keep it strung out and out to sea. Personally, I'd go with a GFS/Euro blend right now. One thing is for sure: LOADS of moisture converging into this system. So by Monday evening, we're either dealing with serious flooding, or 12-18" of blue snow and an epidemic of roof collapses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's a common bias for the Canadian. I was pulled away for a moment, but I was going to say earlier that the NAM does resemble the Euro in the 500mb height pattern, just phase shifted west, so something to keep an eye on. It's also worth noting that ONLY ONE GEFS member takes the low over NJ. ALL others drive it off the coast, and either near the Cape with an interior snow bomb, or keep it strung out and out to sea. Personally, I'd go with a GFS/Euro blend right now. One thing is for sure: LOADS of moisture converging into this system. So by Monday evening, we're either dealing with serious flooding, or 12-18" of blue snow and an epidemic of roof collapses Agree 100%, Its going to be one or the other.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean from the 12z is reasonably comparable to the deterministic solution. Interestingly the SREF 9z mean closer to the GFS mean than the deterministic NAM solution fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Just took a look at teleconnections for this period, and it's worth noting that the PNA has been verifying notably higher than the ensemble forecasts, with a well timed positive "blip" for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Euro is further east with the monday storm, Takes the low over the outer cape, Whites get smoked this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That's a huge snow bomb for interior New England. GET SUCKED IN! BASE ALL EMOTIONS ON EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN FROM NOW THROUGH MONDAY! EXPECT TWO FEET OF SNOW IN YOUR BACKYARD AND DONT SETTLE FOR LESS! EVEN IF THE MODELS TREND BADLY EXPECT THEM TO TREND BACK AND JACKPOT YOUR BACKYARD! EVEN IF THEY STILL LOOK AWFUL ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT A HUGE BUST AND FIND EVERY METAR AND RADAR ECHO THAT SUPPORTS YOUR OPINION! And then jump off a bridge when it's 45F and overcast with drizzle Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That's a huge snow bomb for interior New England. GET SUCKED IN! BASE ALL EMOTIONS ON EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN FROM NOW THROUGH MONDAY! EXPECT TWO FEET OF SNOW IN YOUR BACKYARD AND DONT SETTLE FOR LESS! EVEN IF THE MODELS TREND BADLY EXPECT THEM TO TREND BACK AND JACKPOT YOUR BACKYARD! EVEN IF THEY STILL LOOK AWFUL ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT A HUGE BUST AND FIND EVERY METAR AND RADAR ECHO THAT SUPPORTS YOUR OPINION! And then jump off a bridge when it's 45F and overcast with drizzle Monday morning. Nobody is even talking about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Nobody is even talking about it? Apparently, They are in the upstate NY thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah it is pretty quiet for a pretty big snow storm on the Euro right in the middle of its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah it is pretty quiet for a pretty big snow storm on the Euro right in the middle of its wheelhouse. Its because it mostly involves NNE as far as snow goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Its because it mostly involves NNE as far as snow goes.. SNE is full of a bunch of IMBY weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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