ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just over an inch it seems. People should still have plenty left still, but it will take a big hit. I expect a half and half snow pack when this is gone. The sun exposed areas will get wiped out I think. The other areas will hold on to decent snow. But if we can't get it replenished on the next system...then its just looking like a slow death. Looks like even Mt. Ranier (MRG) of SNE won't escape this onslaught. The only aspect to keep this from a monster melt is the relatively light rain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I expect a half and half snow pack when this is gone. The sun exposed areas will get wiped out I think. The other areas will hold on to decent snow. But if we can't get it replenished on the next system...then its just looking like a slow death. Looks like even Mt. Ranier (MRG) of SNE won't escape this onslaught. The only aspect to keep this from a monster melt is the relatively light rain amounts. As long as the 12z GFS does not verify..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I expect a half and half snow pack when this is gone. The sun exposed areas will get wiped out I think. The other areas will hold on to decent snow. But if we can't get it replenished on the next system...then its just looking like a slow death. Looks like even Mt. Ranier (MRG) of SNE won't escape this onslaught. The only aspect to keep this from a monster melt is the relatively light rain amounts. Yeah the sun torched areas will probably be exposed, but I think areas like Kevin's yard that are somewhat protected will be ok. I mean look at the pics I posted from my folk's house. That's after many hours of torching in the low 50s, and there is still a decent amount. The glacier like consistency should help out. The many hours of above freezing will hurt more, but Kevin is thinking that it gets wiped out and I don't see that right now. That doesn't mean he won't see grass...he'll lose a lot, but he'll have a decent amount left by Monday I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z gfs painstakingly close to an interior maine bomb so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well, heading up to my sister's near Claremont, NH this afternoon....bringing the yardstick and cam along for the ride lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z gfs painstakingly close to an interior maine bomb so far It is, Its teasing us up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hope the folks who wish the snow away are happy with rotted lawns covered with debris .Gosh things are ugly, looking forward to heading North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z gfs says get the boat ready while you have the chance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Hope the folks who wish the snow away are happy with rotted lawns covered with debris .Gosh things are ugly, looking forward to heading North. Ski country looks to score on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I expect a half and half snow pack when this is gone. The sun exposed areas will get wiped out I think. The other areas will hold on to decent snow. But if we can't get it replenished on the next system...then its just looking like a slow death. Looks like even Mt. Ranier (MRG) of SNE won't escape this onslaught. The only aspect to keep this from a monster melt is the relatively light rain amounts. Right and Peter and others scoffed at me when I said that even MRG would see areas of grass. This is going to be right up there with 96 except like you said not as much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 How's ne vt on the 12z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Right and Peter and others scoffed at me when I said that even MRG would see areas of grass. This is going to be right up there with 96 except like you said not as much rain Well are you expecting total bare ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Nice front on the GFS, 42/72 is 50 degrees pouring rain while 42/73 is ice and 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Right and Peter and others scoffed at me when I said that even MRG would see areas of grass. This is going to be right up there with 96 except like you said not as much rain Thank god this type of torcher waited until march unlike some other winters that gave us nasty january thaws. Wow is it torching big time here, mid 40s and sun trying to poke through thinning clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well, heading up to my sister's near Claremont, NH this afternoon....bringing the yardstick and cam along for the ride lol I think it will be ok in Claremont, but you may need something a bit longer than that to find the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Right and Peter and others scoffed at me when I said that even MRG would see areas of grass. This is going to be right up there with 96 except like you said not as much rain So how much you lose today?What is your current depth? All I know is I had 18 and went thru two 45-50 degree heavy rain storms with high dews and still have 8-12 in the unshoveled areas, cannot see you losing what you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Well are you expecting total bare ground? Yes I honestly think 80-90% bare ground. with scattered patches around where the deepest drifts were and shaded areas. This is going to be bad. It's March though..so it's not as depressing to me as it would have been Dec-Feb. I just wish we had some hope of snow coming up at least something track and maybe hold out a little hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So how much you lose today?What is your current depth? All I know is I had 18 and went thru two 45-50 degree heavy rain storms with high dews and still have 8-12 in the unshoveled areas, cannot see you losing what you have. This two day warm spell will hurt, no question. If this were fluff, it would be gone by tomorrow night, but I think the consistency of the snowpack should help. The one thing we will have to watch out for, is the axis of heavy rain. If he gets into it and gets like 3" of rain..then he may have a problem. I think it should be more to the nw, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 So how much you lose today?What is your current depth? All I know is I had 18 and went thru two 45-50 degree heavy rain storms with high dews and still have 8-12 in the unshoveled areas, cannot see you losing what you have. I don't know how much I've lost today. I'm sick and basically bed ridden with sores on my azz. I measured late Thursday and there was 15-18... Those 2 torches you went thru were short lived..not 3 day long sieges of 50 dews and temps and nights in the 40's.. None of us will drop below 40 until sometime Monday afternoon..This is 96..trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yes I honestly think 80-90% bare ground. with scattered patches around where the deepest drifts were and shaded areas. This is going to be bad. It's March though..so it's not as depressing to me as it would have been Dec-Feb. I just we had some hope of snow coming up at least something track and maybe hold out a little hope for I think you'll have the typical melt spots show...maybe even bare areas in the woods, but I bet your yard will do a little better then you think. Who knows, I'm not there to gauge it, so maybe it will be what you're describing. It's tough to tell when you don't see it for yourself. Just my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This two day warm spell will hurt, no question. If this were fluff, it would be gone by tomorrow night, but I think the consistency of the snowpack should help. The one thing we will have to watch out for, is the axis of heavy rain. If he gets into it and gets like 3" of rain..then he may have a problem. I think it should be more to the nw, but we'll see. I had a two day torch with 2 .32 rain, the pack of mine is ripe, do not think his is yet but could be wrong, if he loses his pack to 3 inches of rain it will be about 7 inches of water released in two days, now that would be something to raise rivers. By the way the river near me is way back to low level, weird since that dam burst it only stays high for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I think you'll have the typical melt spots show...maybe even bare areas in the woods, but I bet your yard will do a little better then you think. Who knows, I'm not there to gauge it, so maybe it will be what you're describing. It's tough to tell when you don't see it for yourself. Just my gut. When we get to see a visible sat, shot on Tuesday once the clouds finally break..my guess is the only snowcover showing up is in the Berks. maybe NW hills of CT..and a little speck around Wachusett and Princeton area..other than that..I'll probably start my lawn thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I don't know how much I've lost today. I'm sick and basically bed ridden with sores on my azz. I measured late Thursday and there was 15-18... Those 2 torches you went thru were short lived..not 3 day long sieges of 50 dews and temps and nights in the 40's.. None of us will drop below 40 until sometime Monday afternoon..This is 96..trust me Wow hope ya get better, mine lasted a day but lots of sick coworkers, flu shot FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Right and Peter and others scoffed at me when I said that even MRG would see areas of grass. This is going to be right up there with 96 except like you said not as much rain Its not going to be the assault that '96 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Right and Peter and others scoffed at me when I said that even MRG would see areas of grass. This is going to be right up there with 96 except like you said not as much rain Perhaps I'm foolhardy, but I do not expect to see any bare spots. If so, so be it and I will will start burning and cutting down trees. 34.7/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 When we get to see a visible sat, shot on Tuesday once the clouds finally break..my guess is the only snowcover showing up is in the Berks. maybe NW hills of CT..and a little speck around Wachusett and Princeton area..other than that..I'll probably start my lawn thread Well Scott is already 2 weeks ahead of you..lol. We'll see I guess. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 i dont think much of anything is left either.. i think flooding is actually a major concern out of thisif the gfs is right.. When we get to see a visible sat, shot on Tuesday once the clouds finally break..my guess is the only snowcover showing up is in the Berks. maybe NW hills of CT..and a little speck around Wachusett and Princeton area..other than that..I'll probably start my lawn thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Its not going to be the assault that '96 was. Nothing will ever be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12z GFS isn't nearly as bad as some of the other guidance, but the GFS has been running SE in this. Its probably too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 How's ne vt on the 12z gfs? Go check the 6z clown map that was posted in the NNE thread - I'd bet it's similar to that aka crushed for far NE VT, heavy gradient from there south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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