ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 well what do the weeklies show? also i.e does this 12z run have much longer term support? basically tryin to see if wa wa 's days are numbered ? they got a huge pack there with prolly 15 inches W.E manmade and natural ....snow + FZR Weeklies tried to get a weaker -NAO going in week 3 but they have not been very good lately. Euro verbatim is probably too pessimistic on the pattern, but the -PNA/+NAO combo is starting to hurt us more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This Euro run is brutal. Spring time mud season for New England trying to kick off. Dendrite thinks I'm kidding lol..He'll be tilling the garden next weekend at this time. It's about time to think another winterless March is upon us. 3rd year in a row, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This Euro run is brutal. Spring time mud season for New England trying to kick off. Just an awfully depressing time of year. Once this stuff melts lawns just left with debris of matted leaves, downed twigs and branches..no signs of life..Just enough of a brutal 3-4 week stretch to melt the snow..then we get to look forward to a miserable spring this year. If we could be promised the same type of spring we had last year..I think i would sign up for that from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Guess we start seeing all the memory lane topics now. Happy mudding. Good snows in March have become a relic like me, glad I lived through some great Marches, kids today will believe spring starts after Feb vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Guess we start seeing all the memory lane topics now. Happy mudding. Good snows in March have become a relic like me, glad I lived through some great Marches, kids today will believe spring starts after Feb vacation. Yup...all the folks hoping for warmth and melting have newly applied mudflaps on their cars. Enjoy folks. Pop some wheelies for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Tip gets his much sought after mud season that's he';s been talking about enjoying. Congrats john..Hope you can get out on the lawn in the mud and enjoy that started 3 to 4 weeks ago when winter ended with the pattern change like I said... You've just wasted a month of your life chasing snow events that never had a chance to happen. You should have listened. ...Oh, we got dopey luck for 3" once, but winter really tried to end long ago and many immediately entered denial and let it guide their emotions - a phenomena I will never fully understand why takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just an awfully depressing time of year. Once this stuff melts lawns just left with debris of matted leaves, downed twigs and branches..no signs of life..Just enough of a brutal 3-4 week stretch to melt the snow..then we get to look forward to a miserable spring this year. If we could be promised the same type of spring we had last year..I think i would sign up for that from here on out Brutal spring cleanup days in 38 degree mist FTL. Hope they are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just an awfully depressing time of year. Once this stuff melts lawns just left with debris of matted leaves, downed twigs and branches..no signs of life..Just enough of a brutal 3-4 week stretch to melt the snow..then we get to look forward to a miserable spring this year. If we could be promised the same type of spring we had last year..I think i would sign up for that from here on out This is precisely what I was trying to tell you weeks ago - it was over, AND, it would probably end the winter with rain - cold - rain - cold alternating misery, and guess what, forecast of my life! Spring in NE is just the worst place on the planet... Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 that started 3 to 4 weeks ago when winter ended with the pattern change like I said... You've just wasted a month of your life chasing snow events that never had a chance to happen. You should have listened. ...Oh, we got dopey luck for 3" once, but winter really tried to end long ago and many immediately entered denial and let it guide their emotions - a phenomena I will never fully understand why takes place. Wasted?, chasing? Listened? We discuss weather, fail to see ur point. Your Post in Mid Dec about this being the worst winter coming up ever needs bumping, maybe that's why we did not listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wasted?, chasing? Listened? We discuss weather, fail to see ur point. Your Post in Mid Dec about this being the worst winter coming up ever needs bumping, maybe that's why we did not listen. I never made any such post. Really... I recall discussing that the NAO at the time was too negative and too much of a good thing, and that was true - we really didn't start snowing in earnest until after it relaxed some between the 1st of Jan and the middle of that month. But I never said anything about this being the worst winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yea that 10 day Euro is only going one direction and that is up... Obviously that just as much chance at verifying at this time range as any depiction out there... Faces get smacked and hits keep on coming... And no, I found much less "disussed weather" over the past few weeks, in lieu of constant spinning to get to plausible snow events... Those are two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You like 40F and rain/drizzle? lol. This run is brutal from start to finish except you might see an inch or two of snow at the end of the current system. I'm in Boston. Ive come to realize march is simply a rain dominant month. I do not mind drizzle to be honest. I do enjoy the big qpf systems that hit us too in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It doesn't have the redeveloper from NJ to BOS that the GFS has around 132 hrs I assume? That looked nice here on the GFS. They tell me we flip to snow tomorrow evening on the Euro ..GFS clown maps give me 5 inches, but 10 inches about 25 miles west. This Euro run is brutal. Spring time mud season for New England trying to kick off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 HAH It couldn't have been the worst winter ever when you had 83 inches. IMO it was a pretty darn good winter for a moderate+ La Nina. I'm not about to give up on the March 20 -> April 10 period. ...although I'll be down south from the 28th to 6th. Wasted?, chasing? Listened? We discuss weather, fail to see ur point. Your Post in Mid Dec about this being the worst winter coming up ever needs bumping, maybe that's why we did not listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This is for Pete so he can plan his ski day on Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This is for Pete so he can plan his ski day on Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Why do I feel like we're heading towards a major ice storm here? WSW to in the one county to my west, I'd be a little surprised if GYX doesn't issue one for here, the GFS definitely supports it... NAM? not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Big snows heading to Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldsmoke Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NAM = Epic epic disaster for ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Just an awfully depressing time of year. Once this stuff melts lawns just left with debris of matted leaves, downed twigs and branches..no signs of life..Just enough of a brutal 3-4 week stretch to melt the snow..then we get to look forward to a miserable spring this year. If we could be promised the same type of spring we had last year..I think i would sign up for that from here on out I can already see how much clean-up there will be. Judging by how our dog has been going nuts sniffing and pouncing on things unseen under the snow in our yard I would say there is plenty of life under there. Small rodents love this years snow pack - good insulation. Soon you will be putting up curse laden posts damning the rodents that have wrought such damage on your once pristine lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The differences between the 12z/18z NAM and the 12z GFS/ECMWF are jarring. The NAM continues to keep on strong convective processes really blowing up the southern shortwave and driving the low over Orange County, NY into NH...giving historic snows to CNY. The GFS and the Euro keep the low strung out and move it off the NE coast by 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I was saying on the Upstate side that the NAM uses every bit of energy it has to create the most extreme solution possible.... It almost closes off the 5H low briefly and has the surface low north of the vort over Northeast PA. Of course I hope it is crazy. because the heavy snow is about 40 or 50 miles west of me.... The differences between the 12z/18z NAM and the 12z GFS/ECMWF are jarring. The NAM continues to keep on strong convective processes really blowing up the southern shortwave and driving the low over Orange County, NY into NH...giving historic snows to CNY. The GFS and the Euro keep the low strung out and move it off the NE coast by 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 that started 3 to 4 weeks ago when winter ended with the pattern change like I said... You've just wasted a month of your life chasing snow events that never had a chance to happen. You should have listened. ...Oh, we got dopey luck for 3" once, but winter really tried to end long ago and many immediately entered denial and let it guide their emotions - a phenomena I will never fully understand why takes place. The pattern changed, but I had plenty of snow/ice events the final 3 weeks of February. I'm not going down that road again. That period was below avg temps with near avg snow...it just seemed like a lot less because it wasn't off-the-charts epic snow like the last 3 weeks of January. This pattern coming up is worse than the Feb pattern...if it actually plays out like guidance wants to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The differences between the 12z/18z NAM and the 12z GFS/ECMWF are jarring. The NAM continues to keep on strong convective processes really blowing up the southern shortwave and driving the low over Orange County, NY into NH...giving historic snows to CNY. The GFS and the Euro keep the low strung out and move it off the NE coast by 48 hours. Not really surprising since the NAM is nonhydrostatic and we're dealing with a ton of tropical moisture. The differences all lie with the amount of heat release in the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not really surprising since the NAM is nonhydrostatic and we're dealing with a ton of tropical moisture. The differences all lie with the amount of heat release in the ridge true...but we've seen numerous times how it can overdue these convective feedbacks. I'm not sure if it's all real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 true...but we've seen numerous times how it can overdue these convective feedbacks. I'm not sure if it's all real. So--what''s the thinking for SNE? The mundane NAM (though it sitll gives a decent qpf for GC) or the horrific GFS/EC? A torching 46.7/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 wow just looped the water vapor and all i can say is there is a TON of moisture with this system and someone is going to get rocked!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The differences between the 12z/18z NAM and the 12z GFS/ECMWF are jarring. The NAM continues to keep on strong convective processes really blowing up the southern shortwave and driving the low over Orange County, NY into NH...giving historic snows to CNY. The GFS and the Euro keep the low strung out and move it off the NE coast by 48 hours. At least we can point to a cause of the NAM differences. It's obviously extreme and I think it's wrong since the NAM has tended to have issues this season related to storms that have a lot of convection associated with them (which there clearly is just by glancing at the current radar around mississippi and alabama). If it's right though, really tough break for VT though quickly glancing at the soundings up in N VT - the warmest layer is still 850 and it's damn close to snow so with precip that heavy, dynamics might take over, who knows. It only spits out around 0.25-0.35 QPF for us in E MA though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 wow just looped the water vapor and all i can say is there is a TON of moisture with this system and someone is going to get rocked!! Man, this might be one of the few times I wish I was back in Ithaca for a storm. It should be fun watching the obs in the cold sector of the storm...someone might be completely smoked with a blue snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 The pattern changed, but I had plenty of snow/ice events the final 3 weeks of February. I'm not going down that road again. That period was below avg temps with near avg snow...it just seemed like a lot less because it wasn't off-the-charts epic snow like the last 3 weeks of January. This pattern coming up is worse than the Feb pattern...if it actually plays out like guidance wants to show it. My snow pack at every location I was over the last 3 weeks demonstrated a weekly net loss - and it is right that the temperatures were below average, but it is the 3 higher DP assaults and 1- 2" rain storms that broke this winters back. I remember remarking sardonically that it would be cruel irony if after all that January glory we ran out the end of the winter in the worst possible pattern of all: Rain, cold, rain, cold, rain, cold repetitions. I'd rather it be warm and balmy over brown dead Earth than suffer that type of pattern. It's the worst imaginable to me. I also agree that year to year, winter's end does not require a calendar date, but a pattern awareness - that awareness is that yes, there were a couple of snow and ice deals, but the recession of the season is/was well underway. Reality sucks. Some get it, some "won't" In any event, there have been plenty of Marches in history that even accrued the highest snow total of that given year, so the distinction of "winter ending" is really pattern recognition. I think getting 4 to 5" liquid versus less than 1" frozen across 3 weeks, is tough to argue against. For me, I think a nice snow storm would be fun, but I am equally prepared and happy to let this one go to the scribes of history if need be. By the way, the 18z NAM QPF in all snow from CNY to CAR axis are alarming, shocking really... 4 to 5" total liquid in snow? .Are we to assume 48 to 60" of snow is going to fall in a single 2 day event for that region?? Because that is the literal interpretation. I'm just appalled - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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