ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 some how the 12z gfs bufkit snowfall algortithm thingy gives boston 4.5" of snow on the backend. Is that what you are seeing? I see 2.5" on the 12z nam... Yeah the back end should change over to snow, but there's a question of how far south and east that occurs before precip exits. Even the pretty amped up Euro changes it to snow here at the end for a couple inches. Not as much in BOS. I hate these events in general because they are never easy to forecast. It seems when I go 1-2" of snow at the end, it turns into 4" and when I go 3-5" it turns into an inch or less of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah the back end should change over to snow, but there's a question of how far south and east that occurs before precip exits. Even the pretty amped up Euro changes it to snow here at the end for a couple inches. Not as much in BOS. I hate these events in general because they are never easy to forecast. It seems when I go 1-2" of snow at the end, it turns into 4" and when I go 3-5" it turns into an inch or less of slop. yeah this is my current challenge Will. i went with dusting to 1" in NW Bristol/Plymouth, inland RI areas...coating to 1.5" in Norfolk...and now im looking at Boston and was surprised to see as much as 2-5" on the nam/gfs bufkit. Im having a hard time believing that but it did look interesting with some decent omegas swinging through on that ccb as the low strengthens:axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It still ruins the good streak we've had and pisses me off to no end. i'll just hope I stay 32..and can get a few inches on the changeover 34 or so may be the high for you. Not bad dude, think of it as the water solidifying it even more. Euro says you'll add some more next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 34 or so may be the high for you. Not bad dude, think of it as the water solidifying it even more. Euro says you'll add some more next week. It's already a solid sheet of ice..so i don't even know if it would soak in or run off or what will happen..Yeah i can already picture it..33.8 for most of the event..and then i turn to snow at the end and only get an inch while just north of me gets 4 -5 inches. All good things must come to an end i guess.,..but it still sucks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So is sne not seeing a mainly snow event Saturday? What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So is sne not seeing a mainly snow event Saturday? What happened? It went out to sea....went S and E....NAM bias of being too slow eventually showed up and it didn't get to amplify enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's already a solid sheet of ice..so i don't even know if it would soak in or run off or what will happen..Yeah i can already picture it..33.8 for most of the event..and then i turn to snow at the end and only get an inch while just north of me gets 4 -5 inches. All good things must come to an end i guess.,..but it still sucks . <John Sterling> Well Suzyn, all good things must come to an end. <John Sterling> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 <John Sterling> Well Suzyn, all good things must come to an end. <John Sterling> The tone of conversation is indeed starting to look like that of NYYfans or SoSH. Necessity forces me to prefer non-snow to snow next week for the first time I can remember. Doesn't make it fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The tone of conversation is indeed starting to look like that of NYYfans or SoSH. Necessity forces me to prefer non-snow to snow next week for the first time I can remember. Doesn't make it fun. A little mini-thaw isn't the worst thing in the world.As you said, a lot of people need it. Even if it just unlocks a little bit of snow from areas that need some care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So then if you care about roofs the only good thing would be an OTS or a torch. Just sayin... Every time it turns to rain people start saying oh think about the roofs! Well snow will add the same amount of weight per amount of precipitable water but will also have no runoff from melting. agree...people need to be careful what they wish for around here. A light-mod rain even tomorrow isn't going to do much. For one its not going to be 50...so melting will be slow and not cause any major flooding problems other than some ponding on the roads where storm drains are clogged. Plus, the added weight to the roofs is going to be the same as if you had the same about of QPF fall as snow (a fact some people can't seem to get through their head). Snow tomorrow wouldn't lessen the roof problems and only lead to a greater flood threat in the long-term. The only thing that's gonna help roofs is if A) people get on their roofs and get them cleared or we get a prolonged dry spell. The rain vs ice vs snow argument when talking about roof concerns is really pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A little mini-thaw isn't the worst thing in the world. I give up...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I give up...lol. We havent had a legit rainstorm since December 12th I don't think. We had the warmup near NY but the FROPA was pretty dry, maybe just a sprinkle or two. So the thought of rain is kind of alien to many right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We havent had a legit rainstorm since December 12th I don't think. We had the warmup near NY but the FROPA was pretty dry, maybe just a sprinkle or two. So the thought of rain is kind of alien to many right now, lol. We've been spoiled rotten, I think that's what makes it hurt for some. If we can make the euro even come within 50-75% of fruition next week, many will forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We havent had a legit rainstorm since December 12th I don't think. We had the warmup near NY but the FROPA was pretty dry, maybe just a sprinkle or two. So the thought of rain is kind of alien to many right now, lol. That isn't what bothers me..What bothers me is that every model gave us snow whether it was rain to snow or all snow or whatever from this event as recently as last night. If it had been modelled as rain from day one then ok..but it's painful when snow gets yanked out from under you at the last minute. By 00z Dendrite will be getting mostly rain from this. At any rate time to move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Its not that warm at the surface, I think its just the coast that may flip here, Its snow mainly, 4-8" 5-10" maybe, The tuesday storm is a bomb, Up here , 6+ of snow will be interesting to see what Gray does with Saturday's system. Do ya step whole hog into the Euro? I think this will be one of those situations where we see a trend hard in one direction and then a little correction back to colder and easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That isn't what bothers me..What bothers me is that every model gave us snow whether it was rain to snow or all snow or whatever from this event as recently as last night. If it had been modelled as rain from day one then ok..but it's painful when snow gets yanked out from under you at the last minute. By 00z Dendrite will be getting mostly rain from this. At any rate time to move on There have always been concerns about mixing and rain here in cT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I give up...lol. i gave up about this time yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We know you are pissy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That isn't what bothers me..What bothers me is that every model gave us snow whether it was rain to snow or all snow or whatever from this event as recently as last night. If it had been modelled as rain from day one then ok..but it's painful when snow gets yanked out from under you at the last minute. By 00z Dendrite will be getting mostly rain from this. At any rate time to move on The writing was always on the wall for milder solution...esp down by you. I think I kept telling you one way or another I thought you were in trouble compared to further north like up by Hunchback Dave and Monadnocks. Even that area might rain a bit now...though it looks like some icing for now changing to snow. But regardless, its not as if this was ever a big snow event. I think a couple runs gave some of us 6 or 7" of wet snow. A lot of events have over achieved this year, but notice the ones that haven't for you are the ones that have potential ptype issues (last storm...Jan 18th...and now probably this one). We've been trying to bring storms northwest at the last second a lot...ala Jan 26-27, Jan 21, Jan 12, and Boxing Day....which worked for more snow....but the other storms have trended NW too in the final 24-36h which meant less snow for you. Its been the trend this year. I'm not talking about some 96h solution that showed a NNE hit and then crushed us...but rather the short term stuff. Its always come in a bit more amped...so that;s something to take note of if you are barely getting into snow or ice and we still have 36h to go. At some point the trend will break, but this certainly wasn't a classic setup for it. Many of us had been banging the drum for a hugger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We know Will is probably saying something similar, but this storm had issues from day 1. We all mentioned how it showed every sign of hugging the coast. I know even some of the warmer models showed more snow for you, than currently depicted, but those were red flags for me and for most of sne. You still could flip to an inch or two if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 i gave up about this time yesterday afternoon. SREF's this AM were the kiss of death. Gave just about nothing meaningful in the snow dept. for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If we get pounded Tues and Thurs/Fri then I could care less if I get some rain tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I give up...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Who needs rain to melt this stuff? El torcho today. 31.2 with full increasingly high angle sun. Should at least melt the roads and driveway a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The writing was always on the wall for milder solution...esp down by you. I think I kept telling you one way or another I thought you were in trouble compared to further north like up by Hunchback Dave and Monadnocks. Even that area might rain a bit now...though it looks like some icing for now changing to snow. But regardless, its not as if this was ever a big snow event. I think a couple runs gave some of us 6 or 7" of wet snow. A lot of events have over achieved this year, but notice the ones that haven't for you are the ones that have potential ptype issues (last storm...Jan 18th...and now probably this one). We've been trying to bring storms northwest at the last second a lot...ala Jan 26-27, Jan 21, Jan 12, and Boxing Day....which worked for more snow....but the other storms have trended NW too in the final 24-36h which meant less snow for you. Its been the trend this year. I'm not talking about some 96h solution that showed a NNE hit and then crushed us...but rather the short term stuff. Its always come in a bit more amped...so that;s something to take note of if you are barely getting into snow or ice and we still have 36h to go. At some point the trend will break, but this certainly wasn't a classic setup for it. Many of us had been banging the drum for a hugger solution. Will is probably saying something similar, but this storm had issues from day 1. We all mentioned how it showed every sign of hugging the coast. I know even some of the warmer models showed more snow for you, than currently depicted, but those were red flags for me and for most of sne. You still could flip to an inch or two if things work out. LOL..you're both right and scary how you were typing the same basic thing. For a weenie like me it's just hard to grasp my mind around the fact that it has to rain and ruin such a good thing. Even the hugger solutions until today still offered some hope..maybe it was weenie hope...but it sure sucked Noyes, Tip and some other good mets in..so it wasn't just me. Maybe things will get better next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Its not that warm at the surface, I think its just the coast that may flip here, Its snow mainly, 4-8" 5-10" maybe, The tuesday storm is a bomb, Up here , 6+ of snow When you say coast, are you talking immediate coast or with so many miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Who needs rain to melt this stuff? El torcho today. 31.2 with full increasingly high angle sun. Should at least melt the roads and driveway a bit. Temp has gone up 40 degrees at my house since 5am! -4 to 36. F'n amazing when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL..you're both right and scary how you were typing the same basic thing. For a weenie like me it's just hard to grasp my mind around the fact that it has to rain and ruin such a good thing. Even the hugger solutions until today still offered some hope..maybe it was weenie hope...but it sure sucked Noyes, Tip and some other good mets in..so it wasn't just me. Maybe things will get better next week There's certainly still the possibility of some accumulating wet snow as the storm exits for you...but I wouldn't pin too much hope on it right now. Wait and see what it looks like by tonight or tomorrow morning. If we keep the bulk of potent vortmax tracking south of us, then we'll flip to a period of heavy wet snow...otherwise the flip will happen too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL..you're both right and scary how you were typing the same basic thing. For a weenie like me it's just hard to grasp my mind around the fact that it has to rain and ruin such a good thing. Even the hugger solutions until today still offered some hope..maybe it was weenie hope...but it sure sucked Noyes, Tip and some other good mets in..so it wasn't just me. Maybe things will get better next week perhaps this will go SE 24 hours out . there was one storm that messenger curses that did the same thing this season. or perhaps the period when ml temps /Bl temps are highest is pretty dry anway? looking at the 12z gfs ens....it looks like sprinkles past sat evening..less than .10 on almost all 12 panels......then light rain developing around 10pm'ish changing to light snow in the wee hours thru dawn? looks like what .4-.5 qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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