Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Temp has gone up 40 degrees at my house since 5am! -4 to 36. F'n amazing when you think about it. I'm colder than you? 33F at TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Temp has gone up 40 degrees at my house since 5am! -4 to 36. F'n amazing when you think about it. 26 here and the sun has given some nice help clearing some stuff up before tomorrow's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 perhaps this will go SE 24 hours out . there was one storm that messenger curses that did the same thing this season. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 will be interesting to see what Gray does with Saturday's system. Do ya step whole hog into the Euro? I think this will be one of those situations where we see a trend hard in one direction and then a little correction back to colder and easter. Nam was similar, GFS has trended towards both, I think they pull the trigger at there afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 When you say coast, are you talking immediate coast or with so many miles? Imediate coast, May have some mixing issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Imediate coast, May have some mixing issues.. Thanks Jeff. Hopefully good here. I'm about 15 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nam was similar, GFS has trended towards both, I think they pull the trigger at there afternoon AFD. Sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks Jeff. Hopefully good here. I'm about 15 miles inland. what you think about me here in Southern Nh MHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks Jeff. Hopefully good here. I'm about 15 miles inland. John, Thats what the Euro had Verbatium, Is it right? Don't know but a few miles east would make a differnce Nam and GFS were similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What are we looking at for p-types out toward me and MPM. He has 600' more el. than me. Mix to snow? Couple inches of paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What are we looking at for p-types out toward me and MPM. He has 600' more el. than me. Mix to snow? Couple inches of paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Imediate coast, May have some mixing issues.. Looks like the family and I picked a good weekend to hit Shawnee; we're planning to head up there on Sunday. What's the timing on this now, BTW? From what I've been able to follow, it was starting to sound like less of a Saturday thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 John, Thats what the Euro had Verbatium, Is it right? Don't know but a few miles east would make a differnce Nam and GFS were similar Understood. With the Euro setup, does it push higher QPF inland or keep it along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not happening. so a 50 mile move SE is out of the question? that's interesting also the 12z nam looks like it has route 2 /N orh county 0c 850 at 0z then ....at 6z a bit further S with the 0c line to the west of ORH and a tad further NE 0c 850 on the east side. a 30 mile jog SE of this line or should dynamics /deformation band be a bit more robust....it would look like sprinkles to moderate/heavy snow for a time no? I mean why ride the euro right now. it's hasn' been the king this year. in fact there has been no king. i remember a week and a half ago the NCEP tossed the euro in favor of the GGEM and UKIE for christ sake. i just don't see much qpf when temps are mildest and it seems like qpf starts picking up as heights start falling....and where not THAT far away from snow.....so a tick se and 495 is in the game IMO? i know people HATE going bullish for snow against models and i'm not asking them to do that...just that it doesn't seem like it would take much ...esp if you decrown the euro and says yeah a tick SE wouldn't suprise me....toss the euro. i have seen ticks SE this year .......it seems it ticks and tocks until it stops near ack/Mvy. and since this is moving ENE. we have a shot still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 so essentially its going to be 32.4 imby in the low lands of shrewsbury, while you are 31 and have minor icing concerns .. exciting .. lol...they cancelled all events at the high school tommorow becasue of "6-9 inches of snow". I dont know where they got that from? Multiplied the forecast by 1.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the family and I picked a good weekend to hit Shawnee; we're planning to head up there on Sunday. What's the timing on this now, BTW? From what I've been able to follow, it was starting to sound like less of a Saturday thing. Early Sunday here Understood. With the Euro setup, does it push higher QPF inland or keep it along the coast? Euro pushed the .75" line further west with the west track, .50" almost all the way to the Mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sitting pretty. Yes, This next 10 days could be la epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 so a 50 mile move SE is out of the question? that's interesting also the 12z nam looks like it has route 2 /N orh county 0c 850 at 0z then ....at 6z a bit further S with the 0c line to the west of ORH and a tad further NE 0c 850 on the east side. a 30 mile jog SE of this line or should dynamics /deformation band be a bit more robust....it would look like sprinkles to moderate/heavy snow for a time no? I mean why ride the euro right now. it's hasn' been the king this year. in fact there has been no king. i remember a week and a half ago the NCEP tossed the euro in favor of the GGEM and UKIE for christ sake. i just don't see much qpf when temps are mildest and it seems like qpf starts picking up as heights start falling....and where not THAT far away from snow.....so a tick se and 495 is in the game IMO? i know people HATE going bullish for snow against models and i'm not asking them to do that...just that it doesn't seem like it would take much ...esp if you decrown the euro and says yeah a tick SE wouldn't suprise me....toss the euro. i have seen ticks SE this year .......it seems it ticks and tocks until it stops near ack/Mvy. and since this is moving ENE. we have a shot still Yes we have, but this is a different pattern we are in now. There is nothing to stop this from coming closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Early Sunday here Euro pushed the .75" line further west with the west track, .50" almost all the way to the Mtns Thanks for your input on the model Jeff. Just hanging out until 3 p.m. and then to logging onto Blackboard and taking an exam on Preventive Medicine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC and GYX taking their time this afternoon...probably trying to sort out all the crap in the models. Helluva day to have to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What are we looking at for p-types out toward me and MPM. He has 600' more el. than me. Mix to snow? Couple inches of paste? My guess is that they may put up an advisory (tomorrow morning) for the distant interior for glop tranistioning to a net gain of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Big jump NW for the 15z SREF's. Mean SLP looks like it's close to BID and than over the Outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 QPF jackpots S NH over into S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Big jump NW for the 15z SREF's. Mean SLP looks like it's close to BIS and than over the Outer Cape. Had a feeling that was coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Is it just me or is this a horrible map? 4-6 to southern CT...but only 2-4 in Maine? lol... Will do you think we pull a few inches at the end? Or maybe you will and I wont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 850's torch all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Is it just me or is this a horrible map? 4-6 to southern CT...but only 2-4 in Maine? lol... Will do you think we pull a few inches at the end? Or maybe you will and I wont? Date stamp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Date stamp? 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC and GYX taking their time this afternoon...probably trying to sort out all the crap in the models. Helluva day to have to make a forecast. What's funny is that some weekend events around here were canceled two days ago in anticipation of this storm. We may still end up getting something moderately significant, but this has never been a slam-dunk and certainly didn't merit any special precautions or hype in an area that should be able to take a few inches of Saturday snow in stride. I think "the general public" is just conditioned now to expect every storm threat to come to fruition, when in a typical winter it's more hit-and-miss. This winter has also seemingly turned everyone into a weather expert. Earlier today I overheard a woman in my office, who has never exhibited the slightest interest in or knowledge about weather -- matter-of-factly rattling off the supposed parade of storms coming: "Tomorrow, then Tuesday, and then another one next Friday." It was like she'd been reading posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 5am Well there you go, it's bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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